Zhitong Financial APP learned that Citic Construction Investment released a report on the electric car industry that said domestic sales in 2022 exceeded market expectations in volume, but the stock price was weak in the second half of the year under overly pessimistic expectations for 2023 sales. According to mid-stream and vehicle planning, the bank expects 2023Q1 sales of more than 1.6 million, which will usher in a return to valuation and performance expectations. In terms of profits, from the perspective of lithium power companies, which have given performance forecasts, the unit profits of battery links continue to rise, while those of diaphragms, structural parts, copper foil and carbon tubes are stable; positive, negative, electrolyte and other raw material prices affect unit profits to continue to decline but stabilize as a whole, paying attention to the profit changes and profit distribution of the industrial chain.
Investment advice:Companies that are optimistic about the robust links of performance and unit profit, as well as the sectors with clear competition patterns, the batteries, structural components and diaphragm links, and pay attention to the significant marginal changes in precursors, electrolytes, positive and negative links. Be optimistic about Ningde Times (300750.SZ), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), 002850.SZ, Enjie (002812.SZ), Xingyuan material (300568.SZ), Divine material (002709.SZ), Shangtai Technology (001301.SZ), Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ), German Nano (300769.SZ), Fulin Seiko (300432.SZ), Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), New Zebang (300037.SZ) and so on.
The main points of CITIC Construction Investment are as follows:
Quantity: demand is the core contradiction, Q1 sales-driven will usher in the return of valuation and performance expectations to
Domestic sales of new energy vehicles in December were 814000, year-on-year + 53.3%, month-on-month + 3.5%, including new energy passenger vehicle sales of 774000, year-on-year + 54.5%, month-on-month + 9%, permeability 29.5%, month-on-month-6.8pct, + 7pct; new energy commercial vehicle sales of 40,000, year-on-year + 33.6%, unchanged.
Tram sales reached 6.88 million in 2022, exceeding market consensus expectations, but the stock price in the second half of the year was weak under overly pessimistic expectations for 2023; looking ahead to 2023, Q1 is currently the biggest forecast gap, according to mid-stream and vehicle planning, sales outlook of 450000 vehicles, the bank expects Q1 sales to reach 1.6 million + year-on-year, driven by sales will usher in a return to valuation and performance expectations.
Benefits: pay attention to the profit change of the industrial chain, pay attention to the profit distribution of the industrial chain, and the profitability of the battery link continues to improve compared with the previous month.
Throughout the lithium industry chain, due to the tight supply and demand, the price of Q4 lithium carbonate is strong; and thanks to the decline in material prices, the continuation of the price linkage mechanism, the improvement of the rate of growth and other factors, the profitability of the battery link is expected to continue to improve month-on-month; the material link is generally under profit pressure. The bank estimates that the profit share of Q4 lithium carbonate in the industrial chain has risen to 59%, while that of batteries in the industrial chain has accounted for 26%, which is flat from the previous month. From the point of view of the lithium power company, which has issued a performance forecast, the unit profit of the battery link continues to rise, while the unit profit of the diaphragm, structural parts, copper foil, carbon tube and other links is stable; positive, negative, electrolyte and other raw material prices affect unit profits to continue to decline but stabilize as a whole; looking forward to 2023, the bank believes that demand is the core contradiction, and future costs and research and development are the core competitiveness of enterprises.