智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布电动车行业研报称，量方面，2022年国内销量超市场预期，但下半年股价在对2023年销量的过度悲观预期下走势疲软。根据中游及整车规划，该行预计2023Q1销量160万以上，将迎来估值和业绩预期的回归。利方面，已出业绩预告的锂电公司来看，电池环节单位盈利继续上行，隔膜、结构件、铜箔、碳管等环节单位盈利稳定;正极、负极、电解液等收到原材料跌价等影响单位盈利继续下行但整体趋稳，关注产业链利润变化和利润分配。
投资建议：看好业绩及单位盈利稳健的环节以及竞争格局清晰的板块，看好电池、结构件、隔膜环节，关注前驱体、电解液、正极、负极环节中边际变化显著的公司，看好宁德时代(300750.SZ)、亿纬锂能(300014.SZ)、科达利(002850.SZ)、恩捷股份(002812.SZ)、星源材质(300568.SZ)、天赐材料(002709.SZ)、尚太科技(001301.SZ)、中科电气(300035.SZ)、德方纳米(300769.SZ)、富临精工(300432.SZ)、华友钴业(603799.SH)、新宙邦(300037.SZ)等。
中信建投主要观点如下：
量：需求是核心矛盾，Q1销量驱动下将迎来估值和业绩预期的回归
12月国内新能源汽车销量81.4万辆，同比+53.3%，环比+3.5%，其中新能源乘用车销量77.4万辆，同比+54.5%，环比+9%，渗透率29.5%，环比-6.8pct，同比+7pct;新能源商用车销量4万辆，同比+33.6%，环比持平。
2022年电车销量达到688万辆，超市场一致预期，但下半年股价在对2023年销量的过度悲观预期下走势疲软;展望2023年，Q1是目前最大的预期差，根据中游及整车规划，销量展望45万辆，该行预计Q1销量同比+30%以上达160万+，销量驱动下将迎来估值和业绩预期的回归。
利：关注产业链利润变化，关注产业链利润分配，电池环节盈利能力环比持续改善
纵观锂电产业链，由于供需紧张，Q4碳酸锂价格强势;而得益于材料价格下跌、价格联动机制延续、稼动率提升等因素，预计电池环节盈利能力环比持续改善;材料环节普遍盈利承压。该行测算，Q4碳酸锂在产业链的利润占比升至59%，电池在产业链的利润占比26%，环比持平。已出业绩预告的锂电公司来看，电池环节单位盈利继续上行，隔膜、结构件、铜箔、碳管等环节单位盈利稳定;正极、负极、电解液等收到原材料跌价等影响单位盈利继续下行但整体趋稳;展望2023年，该行认为需求是核心矛盾，未来成本和研发是企业的核心竞争力。
智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布电动车行业研报称，量方面，2022年国内销量超市场预期，但下半年股价在对2023年销量的过度悲观预期下走势疲软。根据中游及整车规划，该行预计2023Q1销量160万以上，将迎来估值和业绩预期的回归。利方面，已出业绩预告的锂电公司来看，电池环节单位盈利继续上行，隔膜、结构件、铜箔、碳管等环节单位盈利稳定;正极、负极、电解液等收到原材料跌价等影响单位盈利继续下行但整体趋稳，关注产业链利润变化和利润分配。
Zhitong Financial APP learned that Citic Construction Investment released a report on the electric car industry that said domestic sales in 2022 exceeded market expectations in volume, but the stock price was weak in the second half of the year under overly pessimistic expectations for 2023 sales. According to mid-stream and vehicle planning, the bank expects 2023Q1 sales of more than 1.6 million, which will usher in a return to valuation and performance expectations. In terms of profits, from the perspective of lithium power companies, which have given performance forecasts, the unit profits of battery links continue to rise, while those of diaphragms, structural parts, copper foil and carbon tubes are stable; positive, negative, electrolyte and other raw material prices affect unit profits to continue to decline but stabilize as a whole, paying attention to the profit changes and profit distribution of the industrial chain.
投资建议：看好业绩及单位盈利稳健的环节以及竞争格局清晰的板块，看好电池、结构件、隔膜环节，关注前驱体、电解液、正极、负极环节中边际变化显著的公司，看好宁德时代(300750.SZ)、亿纬锂能(300014.SZ)、科达利(002850.SZ)、恩捷股份(002812.SZ)、星源材质(300568.SZ)、天赐材料(002709.SZ)、尚太科技(001301.SZ)、中科电气(300035.SZ)、德方纳米(300769.SZ)、富临精工(300432.SZ)、华友钴业(603799.SH)、新宙邦(300037.SZ)等。
Investment advice:Companies that are optimistic about the robust links of performance and unit profit, as well as the sectors with clear competition patterns, the batteries, structural components and diaphragm links, and pay attention to the significant marginal changes in precursors, electrolytes, positive and negative links. Be optimistic about Ningde Times (300750.SZ), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), 002850.SZ, Enjie (002812.SZ), Xingyuan material (300568.SZ), Divine material (002709.SZ), Shangtai Technology (001301.SZ), Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ), German Nano (300769.SZ), Fulin Seiko (300432.SZ), Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), New Zebang (300037.SZ) and so on.
The main points of CITIC Construction Investment are as follows:
量：需求是核心矛盾，Q1销量驱动下将迎来估值和业绩预期的回归
Quantity: demand is the core contradiction, Q1 sales-driven will usher in the return of valuation and performance expectations to
12月国内新能源汽车销量81.4万辆，同比+53.3%，环比+3.5%，其中新能源乘用车销量77.4万辆，同比+54.5%，环比+9%，渗透率29.5%，环比-6.8pct，同比+7pct;新能源商用车销量4万辆，同比+33.6%，环比持平。
Domestic sales of new energy vehicles in December were 814000, year-on-year + 53.3%, month-on-month + 3.5%, including new energy passenger vehicle sales of 774000, year-on-year + 54.5%, month-on-month + 9%, permeability 29.5%, month-on-month-6.8pct, + 7pct; new energy commercial vehicle sales of 40,000, year-on-year + 33.6%, unchanged.
2022年电车销量达到688万辆，超市场一致预期，但下半年股价在对2023年销量的过度悲观预期下走势疲软;展望2023年，Q1是目前最大的预期差，根据中游及整车规划，销量展望45万辆，该行预计Q1销量同比+30%以上达160万+，销量驱动下将迎来估值和业绩预期的回归。
Tram sales reached 6.88 million in 2022, exceeding market consensus expectations, but the stock price in the second half of the year was weak under overly pessimistic expectations for 2023; looking ahead to 2023, Q1 is currently the biggest forecast gap, according to mid-stream and vehicle planning, sales outlook of 450000 vehicles, the bank expects Q1 sales to reach 1.6 million + year-on-year, driven by sales will usher in a return to valuation and performance expectations.
利：关注产业链利润变化，关注产业链利润分配，电池环节盈利能力环比持续改善
Benefits: pay attention to the profit change of the industrial chain, pay attention to the profit distribution of the industrial chain, and the profitability of the battery link continues to improve compared with the previous month.
纵观锂电产业链，由于供需紧张，Q4碳酸锂价格强势;而得益于材料价格下跌、价格联动机制延续、稼动率提升等因素，预计电池环节盈利能力环比持续改善;材料环节普遍盈利承压。该行测算，Q4碳酸锂在产业链的利润占比升至59%，电池在产业链的利润占比26%，环比持平。已出业绩预告的锂电公司来看，电池环节单位盈利继续上行，隔膜、结构件、铜箔、碳管等环节单位盈利稳定;正极、负极、电解液等收到原材料跌价等影响单位盈利继续下行但整体趋稳;展望2023年，该行认为需求是核心矛盾，未来成本和研发是企业的核心竞争力。
Throughout the lithium industry chain, due to the tight supply and demand, the price of Q4 lithium carbonate is strong; and thanks to the decline in material prices, the continuation of the price linkage mechanism, the improvement of the rate of growth and other factors, the profitability of the battery link is expected to continue to improve month-on-month; the material link is generally under profit pressure. The bank estimates that the profit share of Q4 lithium carbonate in the industrial chain has risen to 59%, while that of batteries in the industrial chain has accounted for 26%, which is flat from the previous month. From the point of view of the lithium power company, which has issued a performance forecast, the unit profit of the battery link continues to rise, while the unit profit of the diaphragm, structural parts, copper foil, carbon tube and other links is stable; positive, negative, electrolyte and other raw material prices affect unit profits to continue to decline but stabilize as a whole; looking forward to 2023, the bank believes that demand is the core contradiction, and future costs and research and development are the core competitiveness of enterprises.
