The 22-year performance is in line with expectations, and Q4 may be affected by self-support adjustment. On January 20, Oriental Wealth disclosed a 22-year performance forecast that the company's return net profit was 80-9 billion yuan, in the range of-6.46% to + 5.23% compared with the same period last year; deducting non-net profit of 77-8.7 billion yuan, which was in the range of-8.77% to + 3.08%; 22 years / 22Q1-3 non-recurring profit and loss 3265 million yuan. The net profit of 22Q4 is 14.06-2.406 billion yuan, from-40.4% to + 2.0% compared with the same period last year, and from-38.3% to + 5.6% compared with the previous year. The main reasons for judging the decline in 22Q4 performance are: 1) the bond market adjustment dragged down proprietary performance (22Q1-3 proprietary income 1 billion yuan, accounting for about 10.5%); 2) the stock-based turnover fell, 22Q4 ADT was 958.9 billion yuan, year-on-year / month-on-month-19% /-5%.
The market share of the brokerage business continues to increase, and the company's performance is better than that of the same industry. According to the company's performance forecast, the company's stock-based trading volume in 2022 is basically the same as the same period last year (market-wide yoy-10.4%), the market share has further increased, and the securities brokerage business has increased slightly compared with the same period last year. Recently, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued the measures for the Administration of Securities Brokerage Business (referred to as the "measures"), which came into force on February 28. We believe that after the landing of the "measures", the short-term worries of the market about fee reduction in securities business will be effectively alleviated; the company has a large customer base, and the market share is still increasing, so it can effectively share the "service cost". Lower prices help companies to get new customers, forming a virtuous circle.
The performance of Tiantian Fund is better than that of its peers, and its market share is expected to increase. By the end of September 22, the holding scale of Tian Tian Fund partial Stock Fund was 455.1 billion yuan. By the end of 22, the size of the market-wide partial stock fund was 7.48 trillion yuan, with month-on-month / year-on-year + 1.9% /-13.4%. The company's revenue from financial e-commerce services decreased year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in fund issuance and transaction scale. Looking forward to 23 years, we believe that the income of the Tiantian Fund will be affected by the redemption of fund shares and the size of the newly issued fund.
Investment advice: trading volume and fund business are the core factors that affect the company's 23-year performance. According to the 22-year trading volume and the fund performance in the fourth quarter, we downgrade the 22-year core assumption; the growth rate of the 23-year core assumption remains unchanged, but after considering the base change, we expect the adjusted 22-23 year-on-year net profit to be 85.55 / 10.546 billion yuan, year-on-year + 0.03% / + 23.26%, corresponding to EPS of 0.65 / 0.80 yuan. The current share price is 29 times PE (23e), with a margin of safety and maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: market volatility risk, policy risk, operational and business risk.