Source: brokerage China
It is hot to return home during the Spring Festival, and it is busy visiting relatives and friends. Many people have a drink for the Spring Festival party!
In the first Spring Festival after the "full recovery", the market is full of expectations for holiday consumption, including liquor. In this year's Spring Festival Gala of the year of the Rabbit, all kinds of liquor enterprises have fully brushed their sense of existence. The liquor sector, as the sector with the strongest consumer certainty, has become the focus of increasing positions in public funds, index funds, northbound funds and private equity funds since the fourth quarter of last year.
The food and beverage sector, represented by spirits, has rebounded by nearly 40% since November last year. According to the research of Guohai Securities, in the 10 billion level performance funds, the allocation weight of food and beverage is more concentrated, and the allocation weight reaches 22.98%, far ahead of other plates. The stock with the highest absolute market capitalization is Guizhou Moutai.
In 2023, more and more foreign investors are full of confidence in China's economic recovery. Since January, northbound funds have accumulated a net purchase of 112.5 billion yuan, and the net purchase amount in a single month has reached the highest level since the opening of northward funds. In the buying direction, food and beverages represented by spirits have also become a key direction. Among them, Guizhou Moutai nearly 20 days cumulative inflow of 8.867 billion yuan, Wuliangye nearly 20 days cumulative inflow of 8.256 billion yuan, become the most favored target of northward funds.
A number of investors said that as social life returns to normal and there will be a relatively strong recovery in areas such as services and consumption, more funds have begun to adjust their asset allocation weights and increase their positions in consumer goods.
A toast with a strong flavor of the year, liquor enterprisesThe performance is generally good.
In the new year, the epidemic is no longer a heavy yoke, the busy streets have returned to the smell of fireworks that have not been seen for a long time; the reunion of relatives and friends is in full swing during the Spring Festival, and poetry and distance are no longer the extravagant hopes of the Spring Festival holiday. Chinese New year, of course, a variety of weather, mixed flavor, which are all in a glass of wine.
For the first Spring Festival after the "full recovery", the market is full of expectations for liquor consumption. The annual Spring Festival Gala, as a "flow gathering place", has always been a must for all kinds of businesses to brush their sense of existence. And the Spring Festival Gala of the year of the Rabbit, all kinds of liquor enterprises are not to be outdone, and strive to win the attention of the public. For example, Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shandai Liquor Industry, Shanxi Fen Liquor, Gujinggong Liquor and other liquor enterprises "appeared" in various forms in the Spring Festival Gala, "occupying" the audience's attention.
During the Spring Festival, according to the sales data and user questionnaire of JD.com supermarket in 2022, liquor is not only the mainstream of liquor, but also liquor gift boxes are crushing the market share of other spirits, ranking first all the time. The proportion of liquor gift boxes increased from 68% in 2021 to 74% in 2022. In terms of brands, the above report found that consumers chose gift boxes from famous wine brands such as Maotai, Wuliangye, Yanghe and Luzhou laojiao, accounting for more than 50%.
Perhaps, liquor enterprises have achieved relatively good performance in the past year, so that they will spend so much money on the Spring Festival Gala. The recently announced performance of listed liquor companies KuaiBao shows that the performance of most liquor companies has increased significantly in 2022. On January 20, Shanxi Fenjiu issued a performance forecast that the operating income in 2022 is expected to be about 26 billion yuan, an increase of about 30 percent over the same period last year, and the net profit of returning mother is about 7.9 billion yuan, an increase of 49 percent over the same period last year. Shuijingfang issued a performance forecast on January 18, projected revenue of 4.673 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 0.9% over the same period last year, and net profit of 1.216 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year. On January 14, Laobai dry Liquor issued a performance forecast that the estimated net profit in 2022 was about 690 million yuan, an increase of 77 percent over the same period last year, and that the net profit returned to its mother was about 120 million yuan, an increase of about 35 percent over the same period last year. Guizhou Moutai issued a performance forecast on January 3, which is expected to achieve operating income of about 127.2 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 16.2% over the same period last year, and net profit of 62.6 billion yuan, an increase of 19.3% over the same period last year.
Maotai and Wuliangye are still the focus of public offering and northbound funds.
2023 is defined as the "consumption boost year" by the Ministry of Commerce. In the view of domestic economic researchers, in the context of the slowdown of global economic growth and the downward trend of export growth, expanding domestic demand will become the main line of China's economy in 2023. Consumption, infrastructure and real estate will be the three major ways to expand domestic demand, and the allocation of liquor in the consumer sector is the top priority.
Since the beginning of this year, more and more foreign investors are full of confidence in China's economic recovery. Since January, northbound funds have accumulated net purchases of 112.5 billion yuan, with monthly net purchases reaching the highest level since the opening of northward funds, exceeding the net purchases of 90.02 billion yuan for the whole of 2022.
In the northward capital net buying plate, the liquor concept ranks first, with a net purchase amount of 5.393 billion yuan in the last week before the festival, and a cumulative inflow of 19.266 billion yuan in the past 20 days. Among them, Guizhou Moutai nearly 20 days cumulative inflow of 8.867 billion yuan, Wuliangye nearly 20 days cumulative inflow of 8.256 billion yuan, become the most favored target of northward funds.
In the index fund ETF market, the largest food and beverage ETF (515170), tracking the CSI sub-food index, liquor positions accounted for 64.61% of the market value, up 36.9% since the beginning of November last year, becoming the vanguard of the market rebound. It can be seen that both domestic and foreign investors are full of expectations for the large consumer plate in China, which is led by spirits. The food and beverage sector has also become an important driving force behind the sharp rebound of many $10 billion-level A-share public and private equity funds in the fourth quarter of last year.
According to the recently released public offering fund report for the fourth quarter of last year, food and beverage is the largest sector of public offering funds, accounting for 15.75%. With the weight of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 as the benchmark, the proportion of over-matching of food and beverages reached 3.94%. According to research by Guohai Securities, among the 10 billion-level performance funds, the allocation weight for food and beverage is more concentrated, with the allocation weight reaching 22.98% in the fourth quarter of last year, far ahead of other sectors.
The three stocks with the highest absolute market capitalization allocation are Guizhou Moutai, Ningde era and Luzhou laojiao, with absolute market capitalization of 101.4 billion yuan, 71.3 billion yuan and 48.3 billion yuan respectively. According to the Sino-Thai Securities Analysis report, after the deregulation of the epidemic in the fourth quarter of last year, the proportion of public offering funds in the liquor sector rose sharply to 46.62%, and the proportion of high-end liquor positions increased. Maotai, Wuliangye and Lu Jiulaojiao are still the top three heavy stocks in the liquor sector.
Grasp the pace of increasing positions, institutions are optimistic about a strong recovery in domestic consumption
For liquor enterprises, they are also very optimistic about the gradual recovery of consumption in the post-epidemic era, and "steady and accelerated development" and "structural upgrading" have become the key words of liquor enterprises this year. Although the major wine companies have not publicly put forward clear growth targets, they still focus on high-quality and stable acceleration.
2023 is the year of "sustainable development" in Moutai, Guizhou Province, the year of "seeking progress in stability" in Wuliangye, the year of "marketing transformation" in Yanghe, the year of "comprehensive landing of brand strategy" in Shanxi Fenjiu, and the year of "10 billion target" in this world.
Yang Ji, an analyst at Zeshang Securities, believes that in 2023, liquor investment opportunities will shift from alpha investment in 2022 to beta investment, focusing on the two major logic of increasing concentration and upgrading consumption. In view of the current market generally believes that the current plate valuation upward space is limited, Yang Ji said that in the context of the recovery of consumption will be better month by month, optimistic about the accelerated trend of industry upgrading in the third quarter of this year, Maotai valuation as an anchor of plate valuation may have a larger upward space, thus driving the plate upward, while the "position" is the winner in 2023.
Qi Qiqiu, director of equity investment at Hanya Investment in Shanghai, said, "as many people return to their hometown for the Spring Festival and after the Spring Festival, a large number of migrant workers return to the city, the service and consumption sectors will usher in a strong recovery. So at the end of December 2022, we began to adjust the weight of asset allocation and increase our positions in consumer goods. " Qili expects GDP to grow by about 5 per cent this year, mainly driven by strong spending power.
Qinghe Quan Capital believes that with the optimization of domestic epidemic prevention policies and the landing of policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, market confidence in the recovery of economy and consumption in 2023 has gradually increased. "the direction of the upward recovery of consumption shock is clear, and it will gradually distribute the sectors with deterministic logic in the recovery of consumption, such as social services, catering, spirits, beer and so on."
Edit / Viola