22Q4 is expected to significantly reduce its losses compared with the same period last year. According to the company's performance forecast, the 22-year net profit before and after deducting non-return is expected to be 0.6 yuan and-280 million yuan respectively, and the total profit is expected to be 120 million yuan. Excluding the influence of Baowo, the total profit of the company in 21 years is 340 million yuan. (Bowoji at the end of 21, the future impact is basically eliminated.) although the total profit of the company in 22 years decreased compared with the same period last year, it was generally stable. According to the company's performance forecast and the first three quarters' financial results, 22Q4's net profit before and after deducting non-return is expected to be-1.80 yuan and-270 million yuan respectively, and the total profit is expected to be-150 million yuan. Excluding the influence of Bowo, the total profit of 21Q4 is-720 million yuan, and 22Q4 is expected to significantly reduce its losses compared with the same period last year.
In 22, the sales volume of the commercial car industry dropped sharply, and the company took the lead in realizing the elimination of inventory in the industry. at the same time, the profit was more resilient than its competitors, mainly due to the differentiation strategy and the substantial improvement of management efficiency. The company adheres to the strategy of "focusing on commercial vehicles" and "lean operation". In the case of a large decline in operating income, the company's labor cost rate and depreciation amortization rate remain stable; continue to promote the whole value chain to reduce costs and increase efficiency; focus on core markets, focus on superior products, development and incubation market, overseas business and large and medium-sized customer sales increased compared with the same period last year, reducing the impact of the decline in the domestic commercial vehicle market on profits. Corporate fixed cost (labor cost rate + depreciation amortization rate) is at a higher level among peers, with heavier operating leverage and better inventory management. if demand recovers, profit elasticity is expected to be greater.
The proposed buyback demonstrates the company's confidence in its own future. On January 14, 2023, the company issued an announcement on the share buyback plan (Phase III) by centralized bidding transaction, in which all the repurchased shares are used for employee shareholding, reflecting the company's confidence in its own future.
Investment advice and profit forecast: taking into account the rebound in industry demand and the company's medium-and long-term product competitiveness, it is estimated that the company's EPS for 22-24 years will be 0.01max 0.22max 0.29 yuan. In view of the industry inflection point or approaching with comparable company valuation, we revise the 23-year estimate to 18 times PE, corresponding to a fair value of 4.01yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating. Commercial vehicle segment sales growth rate year-on-year or an important catalyst for stock prices, earnings expectations and valuations still have room for upside.
Risk tips: declining prosperity of the industry, rising prices of raw materials, intensified competition in the industry, and so on.