Event: on January 19, the company issued a performance forecast for 2022, realizing a net profit of 550-610 million yuan, an increase of 173.27% and 203.08% over the same period last year, deducting a non-return net profit of RMB440 million to 500 million yuan, an increase of 132.32% and 163.97%.
The performance has reached an all-time high and the production efficiency has improved steadily. In 2022, the company realized net profit of home ownership (5.5-610 million yuan, + 173.27% copyright 203.08%) and deducted non-return net profit (440-500 million yuan, + 132.32% UV 163.97%), all of which reached record highs. The main points are as follows: (1) in the second half of 2022, the company's overall production and delivery increased steadily, output increased by 113.68% and sales increased by 98.66% compared with the same period last year. (2) benefiting from the improvement in the conversion rate of raw silk and the use efficiency of equipment, the production potential of 100-ton line and 1000-ton line has been effectively released, and the overall production efficiency has been improved; (3) because it is in line with the relevant policies of addition and deduction for the purchase of equipment by high-tech enterprises, the company enjoys tax incentives of more than 8000 million yuan; (4) through efficient and reasonable cash management of idle funds and self-owned funds, part of the capital income is obtained.
From a quarter-to-quarter point of view, Q1-Q4 achieved a net profit of 0.91, 0.94, 1.36, 2.29-289 million respectively, with a month-on-month increase of 68-113% on Q4, and a significant increase in Q4. Future performance is expected to continue to maintain the growth trend.
The company is actively raising, investing and expanding production to help the future performance growth. The company originally had only one 150T / a (12K) or 50T / a (3K) high-performance carbon fiber production line, then raised 242 million yuan through IPO to carry out 1000 tons / year domestic T700 carbon fiber expansion project, and completed the equivalence verification in September 2021 and normal production in 2022. The company plans to build a production line with an annual output of 1500 tons of high-performance carbon fiber and fabric products. At the end of 2022Q3, the civil engineering construction of this project has been completed by 95%, and the equipment order contract signing rate has exceeded 95%. The company is expected to complete the final assembly of an oxidation carbonization line and a raw silk line by the end of 2022. According to the performance forecast, the construction quality of the new line of the third phase of the project is in line with expectations. Capacity expansion is expected to lay a solid foundation for the company to expand product supply and meet the diversified needs of products, superimposed by the current full downstream demand, and the company's performance is expected to continue to realize the high boom.
Equity incentives hit the ground, demonstrating long-term growth confidence. On October 13, the company issued an equity incentive plan (draft), which intends to grant 1.092 million restricted shares to the incentive target, of which 873000 shares will be awarded for the first time. The incentive target is 13 people, including senior managers, middle managers and business backbones, with a grant price of 23.36 yuan per share. The equity incentive plan sets two conditions: target value and trigger value to evaluate the company's performance. according to the target conditions, the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2025 is 4.33pm 7.04pm, 1.147 billion RMB, an increase of 115%, 63%, 29%, 27% and a compound growth rate of 38.36%. With reference to the trigger conditions, the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2025 was 4.13, 674, 865, 087 million yuan respectively, an increase of 105%, 63%, 28%, 26% and a compound growth rate of 38.07%. This equity incentive is expected to have a long-term incentive effect on the company's performance growth, demonstrating the company's confidence in the persistence of medium-and long-term performance.
Investment suggestion: the company is a leading domestic supplier of high-performance carbon fiber. With the accelerated release of downstream aerospace demand, the company's carbon fiber products are expected to benefit from the core. In addition, the company is actively raising investment to expand production, the layout of the aerospace field, with the orderly production of investment projects, the company's future performance is expected to further grow. We raised the company's homing net profit from 2023 to 2024 to 7.20 and 890 million yuan, with corresponding valuations of 33x and 27x respectively, maintaining the "buy-A" rating.
Risk tips: fund-raising project production is not as expected; customer development progress is not as expected; product price decline risk; customer relative concentration of risk.
Note: this article is a revised version of the report of the same name released on January 20, 2023. Due to errors in the calculation, the original data on 21-year revenue, sales and production are deleted.