Zhitong Financial APP learned that recently, six departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued guidelines for promoting the development of the energy and electronics industry. Among them, it is proposed to speed up the innovation and breakthrough of intelligent photovoltaic, develop high-purity silicon material and large-size silicon wafer technology, support the production of high-efficiency and low-cost crystalline silicon cells, promote the research and application of advanced technologies such as N-type high-efficiency cells, flexible thin film cells, perovskite and laminated cells, and enhance large-scale production capacity. Guotai Junan research report pointed out that the theoretical photoelectric conversion efficiency of perovskite solar cells is as high as 33%, breaking through the upper limit of 29% of traditional crystalline silicon cells, and after adopting laminated mode, the photoelectric conversion efficiency is expected to exceed 45%, which has an attractive prospect in the field of photovoltaic. It is expected to set off a new round of technological innovation in the photovoltaic field.
It is understood that there are many technical routes of photovoltaic cells, and there are three mainstream ones at present, namely, crystalline silicon cells, thin film cells, and perovskite cells. From the perspective of market share, although crystalline silicon cells are the first generation of photovoltaic cells, they still account for the vast majority, while perovskite batteries have not been turned on large-scale commercial use.Since 2022, the industrialization process of perovskite battery has been accelerated obviously, and many enterprises have begun to trial production.
According to Xiexin optoelectronic dataThe cost of perovskite module produced by 100MW pilot line is 1 yuan / WWhen the production capacity is increased to 10GW, the cost of perovskite components will be reduced to 0.5 yuan / W, with the increase of production capacity in the future.The cost of perovskite components is expected to be further reduced to 0.3-0.4 yuan / WCompared with the current 2 yuan / W component cost of PERC battery, it has obvious advantages.
At present, the amount of investment per GW is about 1.3 billion. With the continuous progress of technology and economies of scale, the investment per GW of perovskite is expected to drop to 600-700 million yuan by 2026, and the industrial investment space will exceed 20 billion in the next five years. The agency predicts that the pilot production scale of the perovskite solar cell industry may reach 1000-1200MW within 2023, nearly tripling that of 350MW in 2022.
It is worth noting that a number of perovskite battery companies said that planning and construction of 1GW production lines will begin by the end of 2023. After these capacities are put into production, perovskite batteries will officially enter the stage of large-scale commercial use. At present, two 100MW production lines have been put into production for single junction perovskite batteries, two test lines are under construction for crystalline silicon perovskite cascade batteries, pilot test lines for all perovskite cascade batteries have been put into production, and copper indium gallium selenium perovskite lamination has been put into construction by the end of 2021. At the same time, the investment in the primary market of perovskite is hot in the past two years.Tencent, Country Garden Holdings and Ningde era and other cross-border layout of perovskite industry.
In terms of the commercialization path of perovskite batteries, industry insiders believe that we can learn from the "start-up" method of crystalline silicon batteries and start with small application scenarios. Wang Xiaobo said that crystalline silicon batteries were initially used in space equipment, and then gradually entered the field of communications, industrial applications, power construction in non-electricity areas, and finally into building photovoltaic distributed power stations and large ground power stations.
Market analysts point out that perovskite battery equipment mainly includes coating equipment, laser equipment, packaging equipment and so on.Coating equipmentThe value accounts for the highest proportion, focusing on Jingshan Light Machinery, Mai Cheng shares, Jiejiawei ChuangLaser equipmentIt is recommended to pay attention to Delong Laser, Big Group Laser, Jepter, Maiwei Co., Ltd., Dier LaserPackaging equipmentPay attention to Jingshan Light Machinery.
Related concept stocks:
300125.SZ): at present, Jiayue New Energy, a subsidiary of Jiayue New Energy, plans to build 10GW's high efficiency photovoltaic cell capacity, which is divided into three phases: the first phase is the completed and put into production of 3GW high efficiency PERC crystalline silicon battery project; the second phase is planned to invest in the construction of 5GW210 compatible 182TOPCon battery intelligent plant; and the third phase 2GW will build the HJT superimposed perovskite battery project.
Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ): the company has shipped some perovskite battery equipment, and its subsidiary, Shengcheng, is deeply bound to Xiexin, a perovskite enterprise, including PVD/RPD equipment with high value at the end of the equipment.
De long Laser (688170.SH): a domestic manufacturer of laser fine micromachining head, has achieved technological breakthroughs in perovskite, mass transfer and lithium battery film removal equipment, and is expected to release rapidly in 2023.