Source: Securities firm Chinese author: Chen Xi

Hong Kong stocks get off to a good start in the year of the Rabbit!

On January 26, the first trading day of Hong Kong stocks after the Spring Festival, both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index opened high. By the end of the day, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up 2.37%, its highest level since April last year, while the Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 4.26%, its highest level since July last year.

A number of hot plates ushered in a collective "outbreak", the automobile plate rose sharply, and "Wei Xiaoli" all rose more than 10%; the total box office of the Spring Festival exceeded 5.5 billion, the film and television plate opened strong, and happy media once rose nearly 30%; in addition, during the Spring Festival, the number of travelers increased significantly, tourism stocks also ushered in a big rise, China Zhongjie rose 8% to hit a new listing high; in the afternoon, the Hong Kong stock semiconductor plate strengthened, Hua Hong Semiconductor rose more than 6%. Hong Kong real estate and property management stocks rose, with Dexin China up nearly 10%, Hexin Pacific Group and Longfor Group up nearly 8%, Sunac Services and Country Garden Services Holdings up nearly 5%, Internet technology stocks rose across the board, Tencent rose 3.8% to recover HK $400, XIAOMI Group rose 12%, Bilibili Inc. rose 8%.

Some institutions said that being optimistic about Hong Kong stocks is mainly based on three major logic, that is, the decline is deep enough, the valuation is low enough, and the policy is good enough. Although the Hang Seng Index has rebounded by nearly half from its lows, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index is still a considerable distance from the historical median. Earnings and valuation are expected to recover, and there is room for growth this year, which is worth looking forward to.

Tencent recovered HK $400, XIAOMI Group rose by more than 12%

In terms of hot stocks, Tencent opened high throughout the day, closing up 3.8% at HK $408.2 per share and recovering HK $400, an 11-month high since March 3 last year. Four Seasons report data show that in the fourth quarter of 2022, Tencent took the lead in taking the lead in taking the initiative to increase the holdings of public offering funds.

It is worth noting that Tencent previously announced the issuance of new shares on January 20 to pay employees'"annual interest." The announcement stated that it resolved to issue a total of 9.7716 million new shares to issue a total of 6.7122 million shares to not less than 6600 awardees under the share incentive scheme, and a total of 3.0594 million additional award shares for the related awards as a result of adjustments made in kind distribution. The subscription amount is 195.43 yuan.

XIAOMI Group rose more than 12%. Previously, in response to the pictures of XIAOMI's MS11 model exposed on the Internet, Wang Hua, general manager of the public relations department of XIAOMI, said that the design documents confidential by the secondary supplier were indeed leaked; the supplier was only a supplier for mold proofing, and the leaked documents were the design draft of the very early bidding process, not the final document; the company will certainly deal with it seriously in accordance with the confidentiality agreement signed with the supplier.

Among other Internet technology stocks, Bilibili Inc. is up 8%, Alibaba Health Information Technology and JD Health are up more than 4%, and JD.com is up 2.76%.

Automobile stocks strengthened collectively, and "Wei Xiaoli" rose more than 10%.

Hong Kong auto stocks collectively strengthened. By the close, NIO Inc.-SW was up 12.94%, Li Auto Inc.-W was up 12.16%, XPeng Inc.-W was up 10.47%, Great Wall Motor was up 7.75%, and Byd Company Limited was up 6.01%.

It is worth noting that Tesla, Inc. released his results for the fourth quarter of 2022 after the close of US stocks on Wednesday. The company's revenue and quarterly profit are better than expected. After the announcement of the financial results, Tesla, Inc. rose more than 1% in after-hours trading. Tesla, Inc. 's share price has risen 17 per cent so far this year, outperforming the 4.6 per cent rise in the S & P over the same period.

The company's fourth-quarter revenue rose 37 per cent year-on-year to $24.318 billion, beating analysts' expectations of $24.156 billion and $17.719 billion last quarter, according to the results. Net profit was $3.687 billion, exceeding expectations of $2.321 billion. The company's adjusted net profit rose 43 per cent year-on-year to $4.106 billion in the fourth quarter.

The company has a free cash flow of $1.42 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with market estimates of $3.13 billion. Tesla, Inc. 's income from the sale of carbon credits reached $467 million in the fourth quarter, up 63.3 per cent from the previous quarter. Tesla, Inc. said that in the fourth quarter, the company produced more than 439000 cars and delivered more than 405000 vehicles. In 2022, car deliveries rose 40 per cent year-on-year to 1.31 million and production rose 47 per cent to 1.37 million.

The total box office of the Spring Festival exceeded 5.5 billion, and joy media once rose nearly 30%.

According to Maoyan Professional Edition, the total box office (including pre-sale) of the 2023 Spring Festival (January 21-January 27) exceeded 5.5 billion at 14:28 on January 26, 2023. "Manjianghong", "wandering the Earth 2" and "Bear Heart" were among the top three at the box office during the Spring Festival.

On January 26, Hong Kong film and television stocks collectively strengthened, and happy media once rose nearly 30% in early trading. IMAX China once rose by more than 10%. As of the close, happy Media rose 10.42%, IMAX China rose 6.44%, Digital Kingdom rose 4.42%, and Cat's Eye Entertainment rose 3.31%.

Soochow Securities believes that looking forward to 2023, with the recovery of cinema operation rate, the previous backlog of high-quality inventory films is expected to be scheduled one after another, while domestic and imported film censorship has continued to release positive signals since November 2022. We are optimistic that the margin of film censorship is good, and the supply of high-quality content is expected to steadily expand, boost demand for cinema and accelerate box office recovery. The reserve of high-quality films is rich, and we are optimistic about the double repair opportunities of profitability and valuation. The domestic box office in 2022 is only 47% of that in 2019, compared with 73% in 2021, 65% in North America and 70% in Japan.

Shanghai Securities said that recently, TV dramas, cartoons and movies have all provided high-quality content online, and the film and television industry has begun to show positive signals. at the same time, the new hardware terminal of XR is also expected to reshape the long logic of the film and television plate. The supply of the content industry determines the demand. At present, the content market is in a market pattern of weak supply and strong demand, superimposing the impact of the epidemic, and the business model and long-term logic of the film and television sector urgently need to be reshaped. We believe that the overall policy of the media is still in an upward cycle of marginal improvement, and it is expected that the film and television sector will go through two stages: "demand recovery" and "value revaluation", corresponding to short-cycle logic and long-cycle logic respectively.

Tourism stocks rose sharply, with China exempted from rising more than 8% to hit a new listing high.

In addition, the number of travelers increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and tourism stocks also ushered in a big rise. China exemption rose 8 per cent to hit a new listing high, while Japan Travel rose 2.38 per cent and Trip.com rose 2.31 per cent.

In terms of news, in the four days before the Spring Festival of the year of the Rabbit, many forms of tourism, including hotels, accommodation and tickets, have surpassed the same period in 2019. Compared with the same period of the Spring Festival last year, residential accommodation bookings increased more than twice as much as the same period last year, and ticket bookings increased by more than 50% compared with the same period last year. Outbound air ticket bookings for mainland tourists have increased by more than 4 times compared with the same period last year, and outbound hotel bookings have increased by more than 2 times compared with the same period last year.

According to the Spring Festival travel data released by Flying Pig, four days before the Spring Festival of the year of the Rabbit, domestic long-distance travel orders increased by more than 500% compared with the same period last year. In terms of outbound travel, the number of outbound travel-related goods booked in 33 countries and regions doubled. Domestic air ticket orders increased by more than 40% over the same period last year, while train ticket orders increased by nearly 80% over the same period last year. Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing and Chongqing are popular destinations.

Huatai released a report on the strategy of Hong Kong stocks, saying that as of January 24, the consumption data during the Spring Festival holiday recovered well, the passenger volume of Spring Festival transportation was restored to 57% in the same period in 2019, and many tourism businesses surpassed the same period in 2019. The film box office was restored to 105% in the same period in 2019. The sales of Beijing supermarkets and other enterprises in the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday increased by 13.7% over the same period in 2019, and the domestic offline economy picked up. In terms of overseas economic data, the euro zone's January PMI data turned better than expected, with the dollar index under pressure. From the capital point of view, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the overall allocation intensity of public funds to Hong Kong stocks rose to 5.8%, and it is expected that there may still be some room for allocation.

Edit / lambor