US stock outlook | The three major indices fluctuated and strengthened, and major economic data such as US GDP and initial jobless claims were released; Tesla rose nearly 7% before the market

Futu News · Jan 26, 2023 21:07

全球宏观

周四盘前，三大股指期货小幅上扬

欧洲市场集体走高

美国GDP、初请失业金等重磅经济数据出炉

美股盘前将公布美国GDP、初请失业金等数据。数据显示：

美国第四季度实际GDP年化季率初值为2.9%，预期为2.6%，前值为3.2%。
美国至1月21日当周初请失业金人数18.6万人，预期20.5万人，前值19万人。

数据公布后，美股股指期货短线下挫，纳指期货涨幅收窄至0.5%，标普500指数期货涨0.2%，道指期货转跌。美元指数DXY短线拉升20点，报101.92；10年期美债收益率涨幅扩大，现报3.513%，日内涨1.43%。

Fundstrat：美国股市可能即将上涨20%

Fundstrat的研究主管汤姆·李（Tom Lee）表示，一连串的看涨信号在股市闪烁，是自1970年以来唯一一次三个指标同时显示市场广度的强劲，暗示了股市将出现巨大反弹！与此同时，标普500指数即将形成“黄金交叉”。

Lee指出，标普500指数的广度非常大，即更多股票呈现上涨趋势。有三个不同的指标显示了市场广度的强劲，包括： the Whaley Breadth Thrust、the Walter Deemer Breakaway Momentum和the Triple 70 Thrust。这些技术指标在预测股市大幅上涨方面有着良好的记录，尤其是当它们同时发生时。根据Fundstrat的数据，当上述指标中至少有两个显示市场广度上升时，标普500指数未来一年的平均涨幅为24%。

联合国报告预测2023年全球经济增速将放缓至1.9%

联合国25日发布《2023年世界经济形势与展望》报告。报告预测，受多重因素交汇影响，2023年世界经济增速将从2022年的约3%降至1.9%。报告称，在新冠疫情、乌克兰危机、高通货膨胀和气候变化等影响下，2022年世界经济遭受重创，2023年世界经济继续承压，增速预计将放缓至1.9%，为数十年来增速最低的年份之一。如果一些宏观经济不利因素能够开始消退，世界经济增长将在2024年回升至2.7%。

投资者加大力度看涨亚洲货币

根据一项最新的调查显示，美元反弹乏力，加上中国放松新冠疫情的管控，提振了投资者对亚洲新兴货币的兴趣，对新加坡元和马来西亚林吉特的看涨押注进一步巩固，并创下五年来的新高。在去年由于美联储激进的货币紧缩政策导致新兴货币兑美元大幅下滑后，投资者近两年来首次看好所有九种亚洲新兴货币（人民币、韩元、新加坡元、印尼盾、新台币、印度卢比、菲律宾比索、马来西亚林吉特和泰铢），并进一步加大押注。

智能手机出货量放缓

根据市场研究公司IDC的数据，在假日购物季，全球智能手机的出货量都有所下降。总体而言，企业智能手机出货量比2021年同期减少了18.3%，是有史以来最大的降幅。全年，各公司智能手机出货量为12.1亿部，是2013年以来的最低年度总量。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前集体上涨

特斯拉盘前涨近7%，Q4营收、利润均超预期

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$第四季度营收243.18亿美元，超预期的241.1亿美元；调整后EBITDA利润率22.2%，略低于预期的22.3%；调整后每股盈余1.19美元，超预期的1.13美元；净利润率则维持在了15%。截至发稿，特斯拉盘前涨近7%，报154.5美元。

此外，特斯拉方面预计，2023年汽车交付量将达到180万辆，较2022年增加37%，增幅将略低于2022年的40.3%。不过，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）直言，如果没有外部因素干扰，特斯拉2023年交付量可达到200万辆。

IBM盘前跌超2%，Q4自由现金流不及预期

$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$第四季度营收166.9亿美元，超预期的163.6亿美元；调整后每股盈余3.6美元，略超预期的3.59美元；自由现金流52.1亿美元，低于预期的57.6亿美元。公司预计2023年自由现金流105亿美元，低于预期的108亿美元。截止发稿，IBM盘前跌2.07%，报137.84美元。

美国航空Q4每股收益超出预期

$美国航空 (AAL.US)$星期四发布了第四季度的财报。数据显示，该公司Q4营收131.9亿美元，符合预期；调整后每股盈余1.17美元，超预期的1.15美元。公司预计2023年调整后每股盈余2.5-3.5美元，远超预期的1.89美元。截至发稿，美国航空盘前涨超2%。

诺基亚Q4净销售额同比增长16%，净利大增364%

美股盘前，$诺基亚 (NOK.US)$公布了2022年第四季度及全年财务业绩。财报显示，诺基亚Q4净销售额为74.49亿欧元，同比增长16%，超出市场预期;净利润为31.52亿欧元，同比增长364%;摊薄后每股收益0.56欧元，去年同期为0.12欧元。

罗氏推出XBB.1.5变异株新冠检测方法

瑞士制药商$罗氏(ADR) (RHHBY.US)$周四表示，公司已推出一种新的PCR检测方法，以检测新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株的一种快速传播的亚型变异株。该公司补充道，这种新的检测方法专门针对奥密克戎变异株XBB.1.5，将帮助研究人员密切追踪病毒的谱系，并深入了解流行病学及其对公共卫生的影响。

英特尔持续缩减资本支出，俄勒冈州研发中心项目搁置

$英特尔 (INTC.US)$在公布2022 年第三季财报时，同时也宣布了一项降低资本支出及效率提升的计划，即从现在起到2025 年，最多减少100 亿美元的资本支出。近日，英特尔还决定搁置俄勒冈州希尔斯伯勒（Hillsboro）新研发中心计划。显然，英特尔的资本支出缩减计划还会涉及更大范围。

传美FTC试图阻止欧盟批准微软收购动视暴雪交易

据知情人士透露，美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）在去年12月对$微软 (MSFT.US)$收购$动视暴雪 (ATVI.US)$交易提起了诉讼，部分原因是为了抢在欧盟委员会之前，劝阻其不要接受微软的妥协以批准这笔交易。预计欧盟和英国的官员要到4月才会对这笔交易做出决定，而美国官员通常会等到接近最后期限时再尝试制定一项全球性的解决方案。知情人士表示，预计FTC要到春季才会做出决定。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前走高

盘前成交额居前个股中，阿里巴巴涨0.57%，拼多多涨1.35%；新能源汽车集体上扬，蔚来、理想汽车涨超5%，小鹏汽车涨4.3%；哔哩哔哩涨超6%，消息面上，哔哩哔哩与晋江原创订立综合合作框架协议。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒：

21:30 美国至1月21日当周初请失业金人数(万人)

21:30 美国第四季度实际GDP年化季率初值

21:30 美国12月耐用品订单月率

23:00 美国12月新屋销售总数年化(万户)

23:30 美国至1月20日当周EIA天然气库存(亿立方英尺)

编辑/isaac

Global macro

Before Thursday's trading, the three major stock index futures rose slightly.

The European market rose collectively.

The US GDP, unemployment benefits and other important economic data have been released.

Us stocks will release data such as US GDP and initial application for unemployment benefits before trading. The data shows:

In the United States, the actual annualized quarterly rate of GDP in the fourth quarter was 2.9%, which is expected to be 2.6%, and the previous value was 3.2%.
The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week to January 21 was 186000, compared with an estimated 205000, compared with a previous value of 190000.

After the release of the data, US stock index futures fell in the short term, Nasdaq futures rose to 0.5%, S & P 500 index futures rose 0.2%, and Dow futures fell. The dollar index DXY rose 20:00 in the short term to 101.92. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note widened to 3.513%, up 1.43% on the day.

Fundstrat: us stock market may be about to rise 20%

Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, said that a series of bullish signals flashed in the stock market, the only time since 1970 that three indicators showed a strong breadth of the market, suggesting a huge rebound in the stock market. At the same time, the S & P 500 is about to form a "golden crossover".

Lee points out that the breadth of the S & P 500 is very wide, meaning that more stocks are on an upward trend. There are three different indicators that show the strength of the market breadth, including the Whaley Breadth Thrust, the Walter Deemer Breakaway Momentum and the Triple 70 Thrust. These technical indicators have a good track record in predicting large stock market gains, especially when they occur at the same time. When at least two of these indicators show an increase in market breadth, the S & P 500 is up an average of 24 per cent over the coming year, according to Fundstrat.

The UN report predicts that global economic growth will slow to 1.9% in 2023.

The United Nations released a report entitled "World Economic situation and prospects for 2023" on the 25th. The report predicts that due to the confluence of multiple factors, world economic growth will slow to 1.9% in 2023 from about 3% in 2022. The report said that under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Ukraine crisis, high inflation and climate change, the world economy was hit hard in 2022. The world economy continues to be under pressure in 2023, and the growth rate is expected to slow to 1.9%. It is one of the slowest years in decades. If some macroeconomic headwinds start to fade, world economic growth will pick up to 2.7% in 2024.

Investors step up efforts to be bullish on Asian currencies

A weak rebound in the dollar and China's loosening of controls on the COVID-19 epidemic have boosted investor interest in emerging Asian currencies and strengthened bullish bets on the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit, according to a new survey. and hit a five-year high. After emerging currencies fell sharply against the dollar last year as a result of the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening, for the first time in nearly two years, investors are bullish on all nine emerging Asian currencies (RMB, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, new Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht) and further increase their bets.

Smartphone shipments slow down

Global smartphone shipments declined during the holiday shopping season, according to market research firm IDC. Overall, corporate smartphone shipments are down 18.3% from the same period in 2021, the biggest drop ever. For the whole year, companies shipped 1.21 billion smartphones, the lowest annual total since 2013.

Hot news

Star technology stocks rose collectively before the market.

Tesla, Inc. rose nearly 7% before trading, both revenue and profit of Q4 exceeded expectations.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Fourth-quarter revenue of $24.318 billion, exceeding expectations of $24.11 billion; adjusted EBITDA profit margin of 22.2%, slightly lower than expected of 22.3%; adjusted earnings per share of $1.19, higher than expected of $1.13; net profit margin remained at 15%. As of press time, Tesla, Inc. rose nearly 7% before trading to US $154.5.

In addition, Tesla, Inc. expects car delivery to reach 1.8 million in 2023, an increase of 37 per cent over 2022 and slightly lower than the 40.3 per cent increase in 2022. However, Elon Musk, chief executive of Tesla, Inc., said bluntly that without external interference, Tesla, Inc. could deliver 2 million vehicles in 2023.

IBM fell by more than 2% before trading. The free cash flow of Q4 was lower than expected.

$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$Fourth-quarter revenue was $16.69 billion, beating expectations of $16.36 billion, adjusted earnings per share of $3.60, slightly exceeding expectations of $3.59, and free cash flow of $5.21 billion, below expectations of $5.76 billion. The company expects free cash flow of $10.5 billion in 2023, down from $10.8 billion. As of press time, IBM was down 2.07% at $137.84 before trading.

American Airlines Q4 earnings per share exceeded expectations

$American Airlines (AAL.US)$The fourth quarter results were released on Thursday. The data showed that the company's Q4 revenue was $13.19 billion, in line with expectations, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.17, exceeding expectations of $1.15. The company expects adjusted earnings of $2.5 to $3.50 per share in 2023, well above expectations of $1.89. As of press time, American Airlines rose more than 2% before trading.

Nokia Q4 net sales increased by 16% year on year, net profit increased by 364%.

Before the US stock market$Nokia Oyj (NOK.US)$Announced the financial results for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2022. According to the financial report, Nokia Q4's net sales were 7.449 billion euros, up 16% from the same period last year, exceeding market expectations; net profit was 3.152 billion euros, up 364% from the same period last year; and diluted earnings per share were 0.56 euros, compared with 0.12 euros in the same period last year.

Roche introduced a method for detecting XBB.1.5 mutant COVID-19

Swiss drugmaker$ROCHE HOLDING AG (RHHBY.US)$The company has introduced a new PCR test to detect a fast-spreading subtype variant of novel coronavirus's O'Micron variant, the company said on Thursday. The company added that the new test, which specifically targets the Omicron mutant XBB.1.5, will help researchers closely track the pedigree of the virus and gain insight into epidemiology and its impact on public health.

Intel Corp continues to reduce capital expenditure, and Oregon R & D center project is shelved.

$Intel (INTC.US)$In announcing its results for the third quarter of 2022, it also announced a plan to reduce capital expenditure and improve efficiency, reducing capital expenditure by up to $10 billion between now and 2025. Recently, Intel Corp also decided to shelve plans for a new R & D center in Hillsboro, Oregon. Obviously, Intel Corp's capital expenditure reduction plan will involve a wider scope.

Chuanmei FTC tries to prevent EU approval of Microsoft Corp's acquisition of Activision Blizzard

According to people familiar with the matter, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in December last year$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Acquisition$Activision Blizzard (ATVI.US)$The deal was sued, in part to get ahead of the European Commission and dissuade it from accepting Microsoft Corp's compromise to approve the deal. EU and UK officials are not expected to make a decision on the deal until April, while US officials usually wait until the deadline is close before trying to develop a global solution. FTC is not expected to make a decision until the spring, according to people familiar with the matter.

Focus on China-listed stocks

Hot Chinese stocks rose before the session.

The pre-market turnover was among the top stocks, BABA rose 0.57%, Pinduoduo rose 1.35%; new energy vehicles rose collectively, NIO Inc. and Li Auto Inc. rose more than 5%, XPeng Inc. rose 4.3%; Bilibili Inc. rose more than 6%. Bilibili and Jinjiang original signed a comprehensive cooperation framework agreement.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Us stock macro calendar reminder:

Number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits in the week from 21:30 to January 21 (10,000)

21:30 the real annualized quarterly rate of GDP in the United States in the fourth quarter is the initial value.

21:30 monthly rate of US durable goods orders in December

23:00 Total annualized sales of new homes in the United States in December (10,000 households)

EIA natural gas stocks for the week from 23:30 to January 20 (100 million cubic feet)

Edit / isaac

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美股前瞻 | 三大期指震荡走强，美国GDP、初请失业金等重磅经济数据出炉；特斯拉盘前涨近7%