Hot news
The US economic growth has slowed slightly, and the market is worried that the United States will fall into recession.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9 per cent, putting an end to a year of high inflation and rising interest rates. The slowdown in 2022 at least partly reflects a return to a more normal rate of economic growth, following a sharp increase in output a year earlier, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus and a weakening epidemic. But despite signs of recovery, many economists worry that the U. S. economy could suffer a recession this year. They expect the Fed's efforts to curb high inflation by raising interest rates quickly to trigger widespread spending cuts and job losses. BillAdams, chief economist of ComericaBank, expects real GDP growth to turn negative in the first half of this year.
The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in February is 98.1%.
According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50 per cent between 4.75 per cent and 4.50 per cent in February and by 50 basis points is 98.1 per cent, 1.9 per cent, 14.1 per cent, 84.3 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively.
Republican leaders in the US House of Representatives consider extending the debt ceiling to September 30
Republican leaders in the House of Representatives are considering proposing a short-term extension of the federal debt ceiling, delaying the risk of default until Sept. 30, according to a person familiar with the matter. The strategy is only an option under consideration, and it is unclear whether the Democratic-controlled Senate or White House will agree to such a brief delay, people familiar with the matter said. The move will link the debt ceiling debate more closely to federal spending and provide more options for negotiations, which will then be combined with an annual agreement on financing plans to keep the government running. The annual appropriation bill expires on September 30th. The move will also amplify the crisis atmosphere before the deadline, as failure to take action will lead to a default on US debt and the shutdown of some government departments.
The initial US merchandise trade deficit in December was $90.3 billion, much higher than expected.
The trade deficit rose 8.8 per cent to $90.3 billion in December, with economists forecasting a median deficit of $87.9 billion, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday. Us imports rose 1.9 per cent to $257.1 billion in December, while exports fell 1.6 per cent to $166.8 billion, the lowest since February.
EIA natural gas stocks in the United States for the week to January 20-91 billion cubic feet
Us natural gas stocks totaled 2.729 trillion cubic feet in the week ended January 20, down 91 billion cubic feet from the previous week, an increase of 107 billion cubic feet over the same period last year, or 4.1 per cent year-on-year, and 128 billion cubic feet, or 4.9 per cent, higher than the five-year average.
European Commission proposes to set a price ceiling of $100 per barrel for Russian diesel
On January 26, local time, according to media reports, the European Commission proposed to set a price ceiling of US $100 per barrel for Russian diesel and other high-quality petroleum products and a price ceiling of US $45 per barrel for fuel oil and other discount products. It is reported that the proposal has been submitted to EU member states and will be discussed at the meeting on the afternoon of the 27th.
Baltic dry bulk Freight Index hit a two-and-a-half-year low
The Baltic dry bulk index continued to fall on Thursday, hitting a two-and-a-half-year low as demand for capesize ships was weak. The Baltic dry bulk index fell 26 points, or 3.7%, to 677, the lowest level since June 4, 2020. The capesize index fell 82 points, or 13%, to a nearly two-and-a-half-year low of 549, the biggest drop in a week. Average daily earnings for capesize ships fell $680 to $4551. The index of Panamanian ships rose 10:00, or 1%, to 1045. Average daily profit for Panamanian ships rose $91 to $9409. The index of super-convenient bulk carriers fell 3 points to 645 points.
The National Archives of the United States requires the vice presidents of the past six presidents to check whether they are in possession of confidential documents.
According to US media reports, due to the discovery of classified documents in the private homes of former President Trump and current President Joe Biden, the National Archives officially asked the six presidents and vice presidents starting from Reagan to re-examine whether the materials they retained contained confidential documents that should not be kept privately and presidential records that should be submitted to the National Archives according to the Presidential Records Act (Presidential Records Act). According to reports, representatives of former presidents Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama and the late George Bush all said that they had no documents to hand in and that all confidential documents had been handed over to the National Archives when they left office.
Sanya outlying islands tax-free 5-day total sales of 1.158 billion yuan
Sanya people's Government Network news, the Spring Festival holiday, Hainan outlying island duty-free shops ushered in high popularity, tourists consumption enthusiasm is high. According to statistics provided by the Provincial Department of Commerce on January 26, the total sales of 12 duty-free shops on outlying islands in the province totaled 1.685 billion yuan in the first five days of this year's Spring Festival holiday (January 21-25), an increase of 20.03 percent over the five days before the Spring Festival in 2022 and 325 percent over the first five days of the Spring Festival in 2019.
The box office of Spring Festival in 2023 exceeded 6 billion.
According to Maoyan Professional Edition, the total box office (including pre-sale) of the 2023 Spring Festival (January 21-January 27) exceeded 6 billion at 22:36 on January 26, 2023. "Manjianghong", "wandering the Earth 2" and "Bear Heart" were among the top three at the box office during the Spring Festival.
Review of US stocks
Us stocks opened high and closed high, with three major indexes collectively closing higher.
By the close, the Dow was up 0.61% at 33949.41, recording five consecutive gains on the daily line; the S & P 500 was up 1.10% at 4060.43; and the NASDAQ was up 1.76% at 11512.41.
Most of the most popular ones rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 3.63%.
Most of the favourites rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 3.63%. Li Auto and Bilibili Inc. rose by more than 8%, Vipshop Holdings Limited by more than 5%, XPeng Inc., Tencent Music and NIO Inc by more than 4%, Baidu and KE Holdings Inc by more than 3%, JD.com and NetEase by more than 2%, Kaixin Auto fell by more than 6%, and TAL Education and 111 Inc fell slightly.
Tesla, Inc. 's share price soared nearly 11%! "strongest orders ever" swept the market chill
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The share price closed up 10.97% at $160.27, bringing the market capitalization back above $500 billion. After yesterday's trading, Tesla, Inc. handed over the four seasons report that both revenue and profit were stronger than market expectations. In terms of automobile business, Tesla, Inc. 's output and delivery volume both exceeded the 400000 mark in the fourth quarter, and the total output and delivery volume for the whole of 2022 exceeded the 1.3 million mark, up 47 per cent and 40 per cent respectively.
Intel Corp's Q4 revenue is the lowest in 7 years, and the guidance can be called a "disaster". It fell 9% after the market closed.
$Intel (INTC.US)$Q4 revenue of $14.04 billion in 2022, market expectations of $14.513 billion, compared with $20.5 billion in the same period last year; fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.10, estimated at $0.19; estimated first quarter adjusted gross profit of 39%, estimated at 45.5%; estimated first quarter adjusted loss per share of $0.15, estimated net profit per share of $0.25; estimated adjusted revenue of $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion in the first quarter. The company's shares tumbled 9% in after-hours trading.
LVMH's fourth-quarter revenue is 22.07 billion euros and is expected to be 22.35 billion euros
$LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE Unsponsored ADR (LVMUY.US)$Fourth-quarter revenue is 22.07 billion euros and is expected to be 22.35 billion euros. Full-year revenue in 2022 is 79.18 billion euros and is expected to be 78.72 billion euros. Fashion and fur sales are up 10 per cent and are expected to be 9.05 per cent. The company is satisfied with the continued business growth in 2022.
Morgan Stanley: raise the target price of Netflix Inc from US $300to US $350. the rating is in line with the big market.
Morgan Stanley issued a report pointing out that due to the strong content in November and December last year, as well as the reduction in annual losses related to the impact of price increases,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$A net increase of 7.7 million customers was recorded in the fourth quarter of last year, much higher than expected. The bank's forecast for Netflix Inc's income outlook remains unchanged, believing that its guidance means a net increase of about 1 million to 2 million customers in the first quarter of this year. Morgan Stanley raised its free cash flow outlook and raised its target price to $350, keeping its rating in line with the broader market, in anticipation of a drop in cash payments this year.
Jeffery: lower the target price of Microsoft Corp from $280to $275, rating buy
Jeffery downgraded to$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Target price to $275, maintaining the buy rating. The bank pointed out that the revenue of cloud platform Azure rose 38 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter than expected, but orders and third-quarter guidance mean slower growth, which is increasingly dragged down by macro factors. The bank cut the company's full-year revenue growth by 2.3 percentage points to 4.8%, affected by macro factors that continued to drag down performance, fierce market competition and a five-year low in business customer order growth. The bank still believes that Microsoft Corp is in a better position than most of his peers and continues to expect the company to benefit from long-term consolidation in the industry.
Akio Toyoda will step down as president of Toyota Motor Corp of Japan on April 1.
Japan$Toyota Motor (TM.US)$The company announced that Akio Toyoda, who has been at the helm of the company for more than 13 years, will step down as president and become chairman on April 1, with Sato, head of the company's luxury Lexus brand, as its successor. Akio Toyoda, 66, said at an online press conference that the president of Toyota Motor Corp needs "youth, energy and strength."
Yesterday's turnover of US stocks TOP20
The Prospect of Hong Kong City
Hong Kong stocks have a good start on the first trading day of the year of the Rabbit
The Hang Seng Index closed up 2.37% on the first trading day of the year of the Rabbit, a 10-month high, while the Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 4.26%. On the disk, the car, Tesla, Inc. concept and Apple Inc concept plate led the rise, while the online education plate fell.
Institutions: foreign investors gradually re-allocate Hong Kong stocks, bringing incremental funds
According to Sino-Thai International, on January 26, the turnover in the big market was more than 119.5 billion Hong Kong dollars, which was still active, and foreign investors gradually re-allocated Hong Kong stocks, bringing incremental capital to Hong Kong stocks. If the consumption data for the Spring Festival and February can maintain the pace of a strong rebound, the upward force of earnings forecasts will be able to support the upward trend of Hong Kong stocks. Continue to be optimistic about industrial security with targeted policy support, digital economy such as electric power and clean energy equipment, heavy industry, new energy, software, semiconductors; revaluation of state-owned enterprises, such as telecommunications, oil, coal, insurance and other stocks of state-owned enterprises will have a better performance-to-price ratio. Technology stocks, continue to be optimistic about BABA's valuation repair opportunities.
Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan: helping technology companies to list and enhance the competitiveness of the listing platform
According to the Hong Kong Special Administrative region Government News website, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said that the global financial market has fluctuated greatly in the past year, but Hong Kong's stock market and financial market are still operating in a sound and orderly manner, showing great resilience. Looking ahead, he said that Hong Kong would continue to upgrade its financial services platform, and the Hong Kong exchanges and Clearing House would enhance the competitiveness of the listing platform, including the introduction of policy measures in the short term to facilitate the listing of specialty technology companies that could not meet the general listing requirements, and to activate the gem to assist start-ups or small and medium-sized enterprises in financing.
Bilibili Inc.: conclude a comprehensive cooperation framework agreement with Jinjiang original
$BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$Notice, on January 26, 2023, the Company entered into a comprehensive cooperation framework agreement with Jinjiang original, under which the Group and Jinjiang original agreed to cooperate on intellectual property rights, including, but not limited to, the Group's purchase of copyright in a number of works (including literary works), and the use of such copyright for designated purposes (including but not limited to adaptation, information network dissemination, publicity and distribution) The Group agrees to pay the relevant transaction amount to Jinjiang original, including, but not limited to, licensing fees, procurement fees and any proceeds from profit-sharing arrangements. The term is three years from the date of signing of the Integrated Cooperation Framework Agreement.
Xiaomo has greatly increased its stake in Hong Kong lithium power shares and created new airlines.
According to documents disclosed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, JPMorgan Chase & Co was released on January 18.$CALB (03931.HK)$The proportion of H shares increased from 0.86% to 7.62%. China New Airlines, as the world's leading power battery manufacturer, has the third and seventh power battery installed in China and the seventh in the world in 22 years.
The first spirits IPO in Hong Kong stocks? Zhenjiu Lidu Group submitted application for listing
According to HKEx documents: Zhenjiu Lidu Group Co., Ltd. submitted an application for listing to the HKEx.
BABA released a report on "warm" consumption during the Spring Festival in 2023: the number of residential accommodation increased by 260% compared with the same period last year, and the tourism industry took the lead in raising eyebrows.
$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$According to the 2023 Spring Festival "warm" consumption report, the Spring Festival of the Rabbit has boosted online and offline demand, warmed up consumption in the tourism film industry, and warmed up consumption with local characteristics. Data show that during the Spring Festival, the number of flying pig accommodation orders increased by more than 260% over the same period last year, with Dali, Lijiang, Xiamen, Sanya and Beihai being the hottest cities for residential accommodation bookings. On Flying Pig APP, the number of international air ticket bookings during the Spring Festival has increased by more than four times compared with the same period last year, and the number of visa applicants has increased by more than 3.4 times compared with the same period last year. The fastest growing number of overseas resorts for Spring Festival bookings are Thailand, Maldives and New Zealand.
Tencent's share price has rebounded to a new high of HK $400, and institutions are optimistic about the strong recovery of the game business.
The first trading day after the festival$TENCENT (00700.HK)$The share price regained the HK $400 mark, the highest in nearly 11 months since March 2022. CITIC recently released a research report saying that under the influence of the epidemic, Tencent's income growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 is still under pressure. However, looking forward to 2023, after the optimization of the epidemic policy, with the acceleration of the commercialization of video numbers and the launch of new games, the company's performance is expected to gradually return to growth. At the same time, reducing costs and increasing efficiency continue to advance, and the profit end is expected to be further improved.
CITIC estimates that Tencent's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 may reach 141.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1.3 percent over the previous year; gross profit margin will increase by 4.7 percent to 44.8 percent; and net profit in a single quarter is expected to reach 28.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7 percent.
Daiwa: maintain Baidu, Inc. 's buying rating, and revenue is expected to fall 4% year-on-year in the last quarter.
Daiwa issued a research report that is expected.$BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$Total income in the fourth quarter of last year was 31.9 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, mainly due to a 5% year-on-year decline in core income. Baidu, Inc. 's core business online marketing and non-marketing revenue is expected to fall 10% and rise 10% year-on-year, while weak marketing revenue may drag the company's core business non-GAAP operating profit margin to 20.7%. The bank believes that the market has rebounded to the advertising business, but then hit by the epidemic, it is believed that demand will recover quickly after the Lunar New year. Although the bank expects Baidu, Inc. 's income and earnings to decline from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, Baidu, Inc. 's core online marketing revenue will achieve stronger growth, which is expected to rise 7% year-on-year this year, compared with an expected growth of 5%. However, the growth of cloud business revenue has been reduced from 32% to 23%. Daiwa cut its revenue forecast for Baidu, Inc. for the 2023-2024 fiscal year by 2% to 4%, lowered its profit by 1%, maintained its buy rating, and maintained its target price of HK $195.
Focus today
Keywords: us December PCE Price Index, US one-year inflation rate expectation
In terms of economic data, you can pay attention to the one-year inflation rate expectation of the University of Michigan and the PCE price index of the United States in December.
Everbright Securities expects that the U. S. PCE price index may keep falling with CPI in December. There is a high correlation between the PCE price index and the trend of CPI, and the composition of the PCE price index can better reflect the actual behavior of consumers than CPI. The Fed's preferred indicator of consumer inflation.
Looking forward to 2023, the prices of energy and some core commodities such as used cars will be significantly negative compared with the same period last year under the influence of a high base, the rent of the heavy items in CPI will also gradually fall, and the inflation center of the United States will move down in 2023.
Financial report$Chevron (CVX.US)$和$Colgate-Palmolive (CL.US)$The results will be announced before the trading of US stocks.
In terms of important events, we are concerned that the WHO may downgrade novel coronavirus's risk rating. A spokesman for World Health Organization (WHO) revealed that a meeting is planned to be held on January 27 to discuss whether the COVID-19 epidemic still constitutes a "global public health emergency."
Niuniu morning reading:
My job is to read. I read the annual reports of the company I follow, and I also read the annual reports of its competitors, which are my main reading materials.
-- Buffett
Edit / Viola