天赐材料(002709)2022年度业绩预告点评:业绩符合预期 下行周期凸显成本优势

Tianci Materials (002709) 2022 Annual Performance Forecast Review: Performance Meets Expectations, Downward Cycles Highlight Cost Advantages

西部證券 ·  01/20  · Researches

Event: the company issued a performance forecast for 2022. In 2022, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.55 billion yuan to 5.95 billion yuan, which is expected to be deducted from 5.38 billion yuan to 5.78 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. 166.35% compared with the same period last year. In a single quarter, the company's 22Q4 net profit was 1.19-1.59 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 81.7%-142.8%,-18.2%-9.35%, and deducting the non-parent net profit of 1.12-15.2 billion yuan, + 70.3%, 131.0% and 11.3%, respectively.

Q4 shipments grew steadily, with a decline in net profit per ton but still leading the industry. It is estimated that the company's 22Q4 electrolyte shipment volume is 110000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20%, a net profit of 11,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of more than 10% from the previous month, mainly affected by the downward price of hexafluorine, but still substantially ahead of the industry. The company is expected to ship 600000 tons of electrolyte in 23 years, with a net profit of 80,000 yuan per ton. The company 22Q4 iron phosphate shipment 10,000 tons, per ton net profit of 0.5 million yuan / ton, affected by some of the new iron phosphate capacity put into production, profitability has declined, 23 years the company is expected to ship iron phosphate 20-250000 tons, per ton net profit of about 3000-4000 yuan / ton.

The integrated layout continues to improve, and the cost advantage continues to be strengthened. The company plans to buy 85% of Dongguan Tengwei equity layout adhesive with 383 million yuan, and invest 376 million yuan to build 80,000 tons of liquid DTD,DTD can improve battery charge and discharge performance and cycle times, continuously improve the integrated layout of raw materials, and strengthen the cost advantage.

The electrolyte industry is already at the bottom and may usher in a cycle reversal in the second half of the year. At present, the prices of hexafluorine and additives (VC, FEC, etc.) are located near the second and third tier enterprises of the industry, and the industry is already at the bottom. With the further intensification of competition in the electrolyte industry in the first half of the year, the prices of downstream enterprises are greatly reduced, hexafluoride and additives industries except the leading enterprises may face losses, high-cost production capacity will be forced to clear, and the demand will gradually recover in the second half of the year. The electrolyte may usher in a cycle reversal driven by hexafluorine and additives.

Investment suggestion: considering the fierce competition in the electrolyte industry and the continuous price reduction downstream, we reduced the company's 2022-2024 net profit to 56.2cm 74.9 billion yuan (originally predicted to be 58.0x74.9 / 8.52 billion yuan), an increase of 154.4%, 13.0% and 12.3%, corresponding to 16.1x/14.3x/12.7x for PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hint: electric vehicle sales fall short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, and raw material prices rise sharply.

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