Deep ploughing viscose fiber production and sales, layout of carbon fiber to create the second growth curve. Over the years, the company has ploughed the viscose fiber industry, and its products include viscose filament and viscose staple fiber, occupying a leading position in the viscose fiber industry; in recent years, the company has begun to lay out its carbon fiber business, and it is expected that the company's carbon fiber products will achieve volume in 23 years, becoming the company's new performance growth point. The revenue of 2022H1, viscose filament, viscose staple and carbon fiber accounts for 66.36%, 29.20%, 2.11% respectively.
With the rapid development of wind power industry, large-scale wind turbine drives the demand for carbon fiber in blades. Under the influence of the rapid development of the wind power industry and the trend of large-scale wind turbines, the demand for carbon fiber in the blades of the wind power industry has increased significantly in recent years.
According to our estimates, the domestic offshore fan large tow carbon fiber market space will reach 2.9 billion yuan in 2025, the overseas onshore and offshore fan large tow carbon fiber market space will reach 8 billion yuan, the total fan large tow carbon fiber market space will reach 10.9 billion yuan, and the market space CAGR will reach 82.28% in 22-25 years.
The synergy effect of "Jilin system" is obvious, and the company's capacity expansion occupies the carbon fiber market. The company is a member of the carbon fiber manufacturing and production group controlled by Jilin State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission. "Jilin system" has achieved comprehensive coverage from precursor to carbon filament. It mainly includes Jilin carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fiber, Jilin Baodi, Jilin Guoxing and so on. In the future, the company is expected to benefit from the synergy of "Jilin system" carbon fiber industry cluster, and benefit from carbon fiber technology and upstream raw fiber supply. In terms of production capacity, the company will have 120,000 tons of carbon wire capacity in 2023, Jilin series will have a total production capacity of 110,000 tons / year of raw silk, 44,000 tons / year of carbon wire capacity and 120,000 tons / year carbon fiber composite capacity.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit of returning to the parent of the company in 22-24 is 362 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 112.6%, "1356.8%," 52.8%, corresponding to an EPS of 0.01, 0.10, and 0.15 yuan. Taking into account the company's long-term growth capacity, carbon fiber business capacity is expected to be further released by 2025, we give the company a valuation target of 61 times PE in 2023, corresponding to the target share price of 5.87 yuan, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: industry cyclical risk, industrial transformation risk, raw material price rise risk, production safety risk