This report is read as follows:
The forecast of the annual report under the disturbance of the epidemic is in line with expectations; for the leader of the educational recording and broadcasting track, the company has a strategic stake in Huasheng's layout of vocational education, and is expected to make full use of the special discount loan policy, and the performance of training orders in colleges and universities can be flexible.
Main points of investment:
The performance is in line with expectations and the rating is "increased". Considering the slight disturbance of 2022Q4 epidemic situation, the EPS from 2022 to 2024 was reduced to 0.31, 0.51 and 0.55 yuan, respectively, and 25 times of PE was estimated in 2023. The target price was maintained at 12.75 yuan, and the "overweight" rating was maintained.
Performance description: the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 140 million yuan in 2022, with a loss of 428 million yuan in the same period, and a non-net profit of 0.98 yuan and 138 million yuan in the same period, with a loss of 478 million yuan in the same period. Among them: 2022Q4 is expected to achieve a single quarter net profit of 3037-70.37 million yuan, deducting non-return net profit of 2976-69.76 million yuan, turning losses into profits over the same period, and the overall performance is in line with expectations under the disturbance of the 2022Q4 epidemic.
Seize market opportunities to enrich educational digital products, reduce costs and increase efficiency to improve management efficiency. The operating performance improved significantly compared with the same period, mainly due to the loss of ① in the same period mainly due to the provision of 510 million yuan for impairment of goodwill formed by the acquisition of Guangzhou Ovia; ② seized the market opportunities brought about by the new educational infrastructure and educational digitization strategic action, intensified research and development, continuously enriched educational digital products and solutions, and improved the ability of system integration. ③ improves the efficiency of internal management, continuously promotes cost reduction and efficiency, and effectively reduces sales and management costs.
Strategic investment in Huasheng Jingshi layout of vocational education, college training order flexibility can be expected. The company has a strategic stake in Huasheng's world layout of vocational education to achieve the coordinated development of the existing educational information business and vocational education. Short-term benefit from the special discount loan policy, the demand for training is expected to be released centrally, and the performance flexibility is expected; in the long run, the policy Dongfeng supports and guides the education informationization to gradually enter the 3.0 era, and the ecological growth space of intelligent education is worth looking forward to.
Risk tips: the landing of orders is not as expected, brain drain, intensified market competition, and so on.