General situation of events
Today, International released its annual performance forecast for 2022 on January 19, showing a net profit of RMB 250-270 million, an increase of 172.7%-194.56% over the same period last year, and an increase of 172.35%-196.66% after deducting the non-return net profit of RMB 2.24-244 million.
In the fourth quarter alone, the net profit of returning to the mother was 0.62-82 million yuan, an increase of 80.0%, 137.7%, and deducting the non-return net profit of 0.53-73 million yuan, an increase of 56.7% and 115.5% over the same period last year.
The change of contract liability is worth paying attention to, and the order on hand is more abundant.
According to the company's balance sheet in the third quarter, the contract liability was 1.159 billion yuan, up 38.6% from the same period last year.
According to the main source of the company's contract liabilities, that is, the prepayment of the order in hand, synthesize the contents of this forecast.
We believe that, on the one hand, under the influence of changes in new energy capacity, the company's order-side performance is still expected to maintain expectations, on the other hand, the company's rapid performance growth under the repeated influence of the epidemic fully illustrates its project deployment and service capability. as well as the strong demand for intelligent warehousing and the robustness of project delivery in the field of intelligent manufacturing.
The policy side helps frequently, and the company's mobile robot attracts attention.
On January 19, 17 departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Robot + Application Action implementation Plan.
The plan points out that by 2025, the robot density in the manufacturing industry will double that in 2020, focus on 10 key application areas, and break through more than 100 kinds of robot innovative application technologies and solutions. promote more than 200 typical application scenarios of robots with high technical level, innovative application modes and remarkable application results, and create a number of "robot +" application benchmarking enterprises. As a mature laser-guided AGV supplier, the company has accumulated a large number of landing cases, and its logistics and storage robot field is a typical scene of "robot application has a certain foundation, wide application coverage and strong radiation-driven effect". It is expected to benefit deeply in the future.
The improvement trend of logistics human efficiency ratio is clear. Automated three-dimensional warehouse is the first choice. According to the National Bureau of Statistics in January 2023, the country's population decreased by 850000 at the end of 2022 compared with the same period last year. In the future, with the change of per capita education and population structure, more and more jobs will be replaced by robots. According to the prospective industry and research data, the number of logistics employees in China in 2016 and 2019 was 50.14 million and 51.91 million respectively, and the CAGR was only 1.16%, which is far lower than the compound growth rate of 9.06% of the total social logistics in the same period. The growth rate of the number of employees is not as fast as the expansion of business scale, reflecting the improvement of human efficiency in the logistics industry. The logistics industry has a large number of automated processes. With the gradual rise of intelligent logistics and the continuous infiltration of automation scenes, the efficiency of personnel in the logistics industry is expected to be further improved.
Investment suggestion
Today, the international deep ploughing intelligent warehousing and logistics solutions are expected to achieve considerable order increment and revenue growth in the medium to long term, driven by the expansion of downstream new energy production and the acceleration of petrochemical tobacco automated warehousing. From 2022 to 2024, we estimate that the international company will achieve an income of RMB 25.82 million, an increase of 61.6% / 51.4%, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, and a net profit of 2.61% / 3.92%, an increase of RMB 555 million, an increase of 184.5%, an increase of 50.5% / 41.4%, and a "Buy" rating.
