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中信建投:国内MCU行业将逐步出清部分玩家 看好平台型MCU厂商以及专用领域龙头

CITIC Construction Investment: The domestic MCU industry will gradually get rid of some players who are optimistic about platform-based MCU manufacturers and leaders in dedicated fields

Zhitong Finance ·  Jan 19, 2023 10:16

Zhitong Financial APP learned that Citic Construction Investment released a research report that MCU belongs to the industry of "low threshold for entry and high threshold for development". Low-end MCU market entry threshold is low, the pursuit of performance-to-price ratio, but product homogenization, manufacturers lack pricing power; middle and high-end MCU pursues reliability and performance, and has stable profitability and customer resources. Domestic MCU manufacturers are gradually crossing the line between high and low end and have made great progress. The bank believes that in the medium and long term, the domestic MCU industry will gradually clear some players, optimize the pattern, and be optimistic about platform MCU manufacturers and dedicated field leaders.

Recommended concerns are as follows:(1) platform manufacturers: Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH), Huada (unlisted); (2) dedicated field leaders: ① Automotive: national Core Technology (688262.SH), Xichi (unlisted), Xinwangwei (unlisted); ② Industrial Control: Zhongying Electronics (300327.SZ), Micro Semiconductor (688380.SH), Peak Tech (688279.SH); ③ meters: Kuiquan Optoelectronics (unlisted) ④ IOT: core Sea Technology (688595.SH), Lexin Technology (688018.SH), National Technology (300077.SZ).

The main points of CITIC Construction Investment are as follows:

MCU: single-chip microcomputer with main control function.

MCU is a simplified CPU, integrated storage, interface and other forms of single-chip microcomputer, focusing on the control function. For MCU, core frequency / core number, memory capacity and interface richness are important performance indicators. At present, the consumer, communications, industrial and other markets are dominated by the ARM kernel, while the automobile is dominated by three cores developed by TriCore, PowerPC and Renesas. ARM architecture will gain a higher share in the automobile market in the future. From the perspective of technology trend, MCU will develop towards high computing power, low delay, low power consumption and integration.

The MCU market has a vast space of US $20 billion, and the automotive industrial control-driven industry is growing.

According to IC Insights, global MCU sales reached a new high of $19.6 billion in 2021, an increase of 23% over the same period last year, and the compound growth rate is expected to reach high single digits in the future. From the downstream point of view, the automobile is the first downstream, accounting for 33%, followed by industrial control 25%, computer network 23%, consumer electronics 11%. In the future, automobile intelligence and electrification will bring the increase of MCU demand and the iteration of product technology, while scenery storage, automatic production line, security, medical treatment, home appliances and so on will promote the continuous growth of industrial control market, and automobile and industrial control will become important growth poles of MCU market.

International manufacturers dominate the market, while domestic manufacturers increase their share and make high-end breakthroughs.

At present, the MCU market is mainly dominated by NXP, Infineon, Renesa, ST and other manufacturers. Reviewing the development history of international MCU leaders, the bank found that the growth of MCU manufacturers often requires core competitiveness such as technology research and development investment, product line richness, advantage products / advantage track, ecology and customer accumulation. At present, domestic MCU manufacturers are in their infancy, experiencing this round of lack of core and localization. Zhaoyi Innovation, a platform company, has reached 3% of the global share by virtue of the expansion of the consumer + industrial market. In addition, Zhongying Electronics, China Core Technology, Xinhai Technology and other companies have also made considerable progress. Local manufacturers are gradually breaking through to the industrial, automotive and other high-end markets.

Industry inventory is expected to return to normal level in 23Q2-Q3, the industry cycle is about to reverse.

Starting from 21Q4, there has been a structural differentiation in MCU demand, a decline in the channel prices of consumer and industrial MCU, and a loosening of supply shortage. 22Q4 high-end car MCU is still scarce, channel-end MCU delivery time is further lengthened, automobile MCU shortage is expected to ease in 2023. The bank judged that the overall cycle of the 23H1 MCU industry continues to decline and will rebound at the bottom of 23Q2-Q3, in which automobile MCU is expected to maintain a high boom.

Risk Tips:Inventory impairment risk, demand lower-than-expected risk, geopolitical risk, technology research and development is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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