Summary of the report:
Power-energy storage market promotes the high prosperity of lithium iron phosphate material industry, and the company's product differentiation and integrated layout give birth to growth potential. With the acceleration of global automobile electrification and energy transformation, there is a strong demand for lithium iron phosphate materials. It is estimated that the global shipment of lithium iron phosphate from 2022 to 2024 will be 114x171x2.28 million tons. The expansion of production capacity in the industry is intensive, and the nominal capacity will reach 3 million tons by the end of 2022, and the shortage of supply and demand in the industry will be greatly alleviated in 2023. We believe that enterprises with cost advantage and product differentiation are expected to stand out. The company increases customer stickiness through lithium iron phosphate products for high-end power and energy storage, and strengthens cooperation with big customers such as BYD and Penghui Energy to lay the foundation for capacity expansion and digestion; cost side, injection of chemical thinking, integrated layout of iron phosphate and clay lithium extraction projects; join hands with universities and scientific research institutions to strengthen cutting-edge technology research and continue to promote product iterative upgrading.
The marginal demand of oxalic acid industry is good, and the performance of oxalic acid leader has high elasticity. Oxalic acid industry belongs to the chemical subdivision field, the scale of the industry is small, and the enterprises in the industry have performance flexibility. On the supply side, limited by environmental factors, the supply of oxalic acid industry is limited. The global industrial oxalic acid / refined oxalic acid production capacity is about 755,000 tons.
On the demand side, the new energy and rare earth industries led to the growth of marginal demand for oxalic acid, the domestic rare earth production capacity continued to release, and overseas rare earth mining projects were restarted. In terms of new energy, the effective production capacity of lithium iron phosphate of oxalate ferrous line from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 10,000 tons in 10-15-30, corresponding to the demand for refined oxalic acid in 8-12-24, the price of oxalic acid is expected to rise, as the leader of oxalic acid, the purification process of refined oxalic acid is mature, core equipment independent research and development to build technical barriers, capacity expansion plan is complete, timing to expand production to respond to exuberant demand.
Profit forecast: the company has formed a business model dominated by cathode materials and supplemented by oxalic acid business. The company continues to iterate in technology, increase customer stickiness, and integrate the layout of the upstream raw materials. In the scenario without oxalic acid performance elasticity, the company's homing net profit from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 2.09x594, 816 million yuan respectively, an increase of 293.05%, 184.77%, 37.25%, and EPS is 1.04, 2.97, 4.08 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the PE of 42-15-11, which is covered for the first time.
Rating.
Risk hints: raw material price fluctuation risk, industry competition aggravating risk, capacity construction less than expected risk, performance forecast and valuation judgment not up to expected risk.