FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning Post | Bank of America: The US recession will be delayed until the middle of the year, and the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes; Goldman Sachs: The biggest driver of this round of US stock rebound is bear recovery

Futu News · Jan 18, 2023 08:18

热点要闻

美国12月纽约联储指数暴跌

1月17日周二，美国纽约联储公布1月纽约联储制造业指数。1月该指数环比大幅下降22个点至-32.9，这一读数低于市场普遍预期的-8.7和前值-11.2，比市场最差的预期还要糟糕两倍。纽约联储制造业指数通过对纽约州大约200家制造商进行调查来衡量制造业的经济健康度。指数在0以上表示状况改善，0之下表示状况恶化。

美银：美经济衰退将推迟至年中开始，美联储将放缓加息步伐

美银对2023年美国经济的看法日益乐观。美银经济学家认为，尽管仍然预计美国经济将温和下行，但衰退的时间预计将推迟三个月，至今年年中开始；预计失业率峰值将低于此前预期，预计在明年上半年达到5.1%左右的峰值，较此前预测低约0.4个百分点。另外，美银仍预计联邦基金利率区间将在5%-5.25%，但推迟了达到该水平的时间预期。预计美联储将在2月、3月和5月会议上分别加息25个基点，然后在明年3月转向降息并同时缩表。此前该行预期美联储将在2月会议上加息50个基点。

摩根资产警告：美联储下半年或再度加息，与市场共识背道而驰

摩根资产管理首席投资官Bob Michele警告称，美联储有可能在下半年继续抗击通胀，把终端利率上调至高达6%的水平。这跟日益盛行的市场共识背道而驰，市场共识为利率将于6月份见顶。Michele认为：“尽管依然只有三分之一的可能性，但这的确是个合理风险。美联储一开始可能会做得不够，因为事实证明劳动力市场更具韧性。这可能会打乱市场，也是我最大的担忧。”

美银基金经理调查：对美股的配置大跌，创下2005年来最低

美国银行全球基金经理调查显示，专业投资者们对美国股票的配置水平创下2005年以来最低。投资者低配美国股市，因为欧洲和新兴市场基本面的改善，促使他们涌向这些股价更便宜的市场。当前最拥挤的交易包括：做多美元、做多ESG、做多中国股市、做多石油、做多美债、做多投资级债券。

高盛仓位数据透玄机：本轮美股反弹最大推手是空头回补

本周高盛数据显示，美股之所以能在2023年开年两周连涨，空头回补是背后的一大推手。报告中提及，上周的对冲基金的净买入规模为最近11周内最大，全部都是由空头回补驱动；上周的空头回补规模高于过去五年98%的水平，为2022年10月末以来最大单周规模。

而小摩本周的主经纪商报告则是认为，最近的逼空可能源于多种因素，包括：美国市场的资金流向转变；欧股因中国防疫调整和能源成本下降而持续反弹；通胀上升继续放缓；缺少散户抛售股票。

美欧就《通胀削减法案》展开磋商，未达成实质性成果

欧盟委员会执行副主席东布罗夫斯基斯当地时间17日晚与来访的美国贸易代表戴琪举行会谈，就《通胀削减法案》展开磋商。东布罗夫斯基斯在会谈后表示，欧盟希望同美国把握住应对气候变化带来的合作机遇。他表示，欧盟和美国应当建立共同的游戏规则，然而当前双方没有在《通胀削减法案》问题上达成共识。

美股复盘

三大指数涨跌不一，道指跌超1%，特斯拉大涨逾7%

美东时间周二，三大指数涨跌不一，仅纳指小幅收涨，道指跌超1%。

大型科技股多数下跌，苹果涨0.88%，亚马逊跌2.11%，Meta跌1.18%，谷歌跌0.90%，微软涨0.47%，奈飞跌1.98%。

热门中概股普遍下挫，阿里巴巴跌1.56%，京东跌5.72%，拼多多跌2.22%，哔哩哔哩跌5.11%，百度跌6.02%，新东方跌11.98%，网易涨0.79，腾讯音乐跌5.56%，爱奇艺跌16.44%。

特斯拉大涨超7%，创去年12月以来最大单日涨幅

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$周二收涨7.43%，创2022年12月以来最大单日涨幅，消息称特斯拉、比亚迪和现代汽车正在敲定在印尼的投资协议。

高盛四季度净利润骤降69%，不及市场预期，消费贷业务亏损严重

$高盛 (GS.US)$第四季度净营收105.9亿美元，不及市场预期的107亿美元，同比下滑16%；四季度净利润11.9亿美元，同比骤降69%，其中投行业务持续下滑，FICC业务较为强劲。消费贷业务严重亏损，信贷损失准备金飙升183%。

微软据称拟裁员逾1万人，并削减1/3招聘规模

综合多家媒体消息，$微软 (MSFT.US)$计划裁员超过1万人，并且可能削减多达1/3的招聘人员规模。据悉，微软可能会在几天内宣布全球范围内的裁员计划，该公司正在考虑裁员约5%。根据备案文件，截至去年6月30日，微软在全球拥有22.1万名员工，其中美国拥有12.2万名，海外有9.9万名，5%的裁员比例意味着大约1.1万名微软员工将丢掉饭碗。

苹果发布新款MacBook Pro和Mac Mini

$苹果 (AAPL.US)$周二发布新款MacBook Pro，搭载全新M2晶片和全新的Mac mini，配备M2 和M2 Pro。苹果表示，配备M2 Pro的新款14英寸MacBook Pro起价1,999美元；而配备M2 Pro的16英寸MacBook Pro起价2,499美元。Mac mini起价599美元。

郭明錤：预计苹果下一个新款MacBook Pro将于2024年上半年进入量产

知名$苹果 (AAPL.US)$分析师郭明錤称，预计苹果公司下一个新款MacBook Pro将于2024年上半年进入量产，并将采用3纳米制程（可能会是台积电的N3P或N3S）生产的M3 Pro/M3 Max处理器。他对下一款新MaC mini的新预测与大约10个月前的预测相似。他认为，2024年新款Mac mini可能将维持相似外观设计。

美联航四季度调整后每股收益为2.46美元，分析师预期2.12美元

$联合大陆航空 (UAL.US)$四季度调整后每股收益为2.46美元，分析师预期2.12美元；预计一季度调整后每股收益0.50美元至1.00美元，分析师预期0.22美元；预计2023年调整后资本开支85亿美元，分析师预期82.5亿美元；四季度运营收入124.0亿美元，分析师预期122.3亿美元。

网易：从未寻求暴雪游戏或其他合作伙伴的IP控制权

$网易 (NTES.US)$发布关于有媒体报道“网易想要IP控制权”的说法说明：我们关注到，有媒体收到爆料称网易想要暴雪IP控制权的传闻。在此，我们必须严肃指正：作为代理公司，网易从未寻求暴雪游戏或其他合作伙伴的IP控制权，在过去十四年的长期合作过程中，网易对任何暴雪IP的使用和授权都是按照合同条款，并取得了暴雪的同意和审批。与其他合作伙伴的IP合作也都是基于此原则。

爱奇艺大跌超16%

$爱奇艺 (IQ.US)$周二收跌16.44%，该公司盘前宣布，拟发行7650万股ADS，每股5.90美元。预计本次发行美国存托股票的净收益为4.423亿美元。

昨日美股成交额TOP20

成交额TOP 20 | 传微软计划裁员超1万人；摩根士丹利Q4业绩险胜市场预期，收涨近6%

港市前瞻

北水连续8日卖出美团，累计超31亿港元

南向资金周二净买入港股26.7亿港元。$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$恒生中国企业 (02828.HK)$、$先声药业 (02096.HK)$分别获净买入22亿港元、5.41亿港元、2.6亿港元；$建设银行 (00939.HK)$、$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$美团-W (03690.HK)$、$吉利汽车 (00175.HK)$分别遭净卖出4.62亿港元、4.29亿港元、2.86亿港元、2.13亿港元。

值得注意的是，南向资金已连续8个交易日净卖出美团，累计约31.44亿港元。

88款游戏获批，网易、腾讯、米哈游在列

国家新闻出版署发布1月国产网络游戏审批信息，共88款游戏获批，其中手游占84款，客户端游戏占8款，游戏机-Switch占1款。此次发放的版号数量已创下自去年以来的新高。

今日关注

关键词：日本央行利率决议、美国12月PPI数据、联储官员讲话、港股乐华娱乐公布中签

周三当日，美国12月PPI年率及有“恐怖数据”之称的12月零售销售公布。

消费者的购买量预计将连续第二个月下降，反映出汽车销售疲软和加油站收入下降。如果不包括汽车和汽油，销售额也将连续数月下滑。此外，这些数据未经通胀因素调整。
周三美国公布的其他报告包括生产者价格指数(PPI)和工业生产数据。经济学家预测，12月份支付给生产者的价格将进一步放缓。

此外，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德将发表讲话

有“美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos也撰文称，美国CPI数据显示12月通胀有所缓解，这可能使美联储在2月的议息会议上继续将加息幅度下调至25个基点。

Hot news

The New York Federal Reserve Index plummeted in December

On Tuesday, January 17th, the New York Fed released its January manufacturing index. The index fell 22 points month-on-month to-32.9 in January, below consensus expectations of-8.7 and 11.2, and twice as bad as the market's worst expectations. The New York Fed Manufacturing Index measures the economic health of manufacturing through a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York. An index above 0 indicates improvement and below 0 indicates deterioration.

Bank of America: the US recession will be postponed until the middle of the year, and the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes

Bank of America is increasingly optimistic about the US economy in 2023. BofA economists believe that although the US economy is still expected to decline moderately, the recession is expected to be delayed by three months to start in the middle of this year; the unemployment rate is expected to peak lower than previously expected, reaching a peak of about 5.1 per cent in the first half of next year, about 0.4 percentage points lower than previously forecast. In addition, BofA still expects the federal funds rate range to be 5% Mel 5.25%, but has delayed expectations of reaching that level. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meetings in February, March and May, and then switch to cutting rates and shrinking the table at the same time in March. The bank had expected the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its February meeting.

Morgan Asset warning: the Fed may raise interest rates again in the second half of the year, running counter to market consensus

Bob Michele, chief investment officer of JPMorgan Asset Management, warned that the Fed was likely to continue to fight inflation in the second half of the year, raising terminal interest rates to as high as 6 per cent. This runs counter to the growing market consensus that interest rates will peak in June. "although there is still only a 1/3 chance, this is a reasonable risk," Michele said. The Fed may not have done enough at first because the labour market has proved more resilient. This may disrupt the market, and it is also my biggest concern. "

Bank of America Fund Manager Survey: allocation of US stocks plummeted to the lowest level since 2005

The level of allocation of US stocks by professional investors is the lowest since 2005, according to a survey of Bank of America Corporation global fund managers. Investors undervalue US stocks as improved fundamentals in Europe and emerging markets prompt them to flock to cheaper markets. At present, the most crowded trades include long US dollar, long ESG, long Chinese stock market, long oil, long US Treasuries and long investment grade bonds.

Goldman Sachs Group position data mystery: the biggest driver of this round of US stock rebound is short covering.

Goldman Sachs Group data this week shows that the reason why U. S. stocks can rise in the first two weeks of the year in 2023, short covering is a big push behind. Last week's net purchases by hedge funds were the largest in the last 11 weeks, all driven by short covering, which was higher than the 98 per cent level in the past five years and the largest weekly since late October 2022, according to the report.

On the other hand, the prime broker report this week believes that the recent short run may be due to a number of factors, including a shift in capital flows in the US market, a sustained rebound in European stocks due to China's epidemic adjustment and falling energy costs, and a continued slowdown in inflation. Lack of retail selling stocks.

The United States and Europe held negotiations on the inflation reduction Bill, but no substantive results were reached.

European Commission Executive Vice President Dombrovskis held talks with visiting US Trade Representative Daiqi on the evening of the 17th local time to discuss the inflation reduction bill. After the talks, Dombrovskis said that the EU hopes to seize the cooperation opportunities brought about by climate change with the United States. He said that the European Union and the United States should establish common rules of the game, but the two sides have not reached a consensus on the inflation reduction bill.

Review of US stocks

The three major indexes vary, with the Dow down more than 1% and Tesla, Inc. up more than 7%.

On Tuesday, the three major indices were mixed, with only the Nasdaq closing slightly higher and the Dow down more than 1%.

Most large technology stocks fell, with Apple Inc up 0.88%, Amazon.Com Inc down 2.11%, Meta down 1.18%, Alphabet Inc-CL C down 0.90%, Microsoft Corp up 0.47% and Netflix Inc down 1.98%.

Hot Chinese stocks generally fell, with Alibaba down 1.56%, JD.com down 5.72%, Pinduoduo down 2.22%, Bilibili Inc. down 5.11%, Baidu, Inc. down 6.02%, New Oriental Education & Technology Group down 11.98%, NetEase, Inc up 0.79%, Tencent Music down 5.56%, and iQIYI down 16.44%.

Tesla, Inc. rose more than 7%, the biggest one-day increase since December last year.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$It closed up 7.43% on Tuesday, the biggest one-day increase since December 2022, amid news that Tesla, Inc., BYD and Hyundai are finalizing investment agreements in Indonesia.

Goldman Sachs Group's net profit plunged 69% in the fourth quarter, which fell short of market expectations, and the consumer loan business suffered a serious loss.

$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$Fourth-quarter net revenue was $10.59 billion, below market expectations of $10.7 billion, down 16% from a year earlier; fourth-quarter net profit was $1.19 billion, down 69% from a year earlier, with investment banking continuing to decline and FICC business being strong. The consumer loan business suffered heavy losses, and the provision for credit losses soared 183%.

Microsoft Corp is said to be planning to lay off more than 10, 000 people and cut the size of 1x3 recruitment.

Synthesize multiple media messages$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$It plans to cut more than 10, 000 jobs and could cut the number of recruiters by as much as 1x3. It is reported that Microsoft Corp is likely to announce worldwide layoffs in a few days, and the company is considering about 5 per cent layoffs. As of June 30 last year, Microsoft Corp had 221000 employees worldwide, including 122000 in the US and 99000 overseas, according to filings. The 5 per cent layoffs mean that about 11000 Microsoft Corp employees will lose their jobs.

Apple Inc launches new MacBook Pro and Mac Mini

$Apple (AAPL.US)$The new MacBook Pro was released on Tuesday, with a new M2 chip and a new Mac mini, equipped with M2 and M2 Pro. Apple Inc said the new 14-inch MacBook Pro with M2 Pro starts at $1999, while the 16-inch MacBook Pro with M2 Pro starts at $2499. Mac mini starts at $599.

Guo Mingyi: it is expected that Apple Inc's next new MacBook Pro will enter mass production in the first half of 2024.

Well-known$Apple (AAPL.US)$Apple Inc's next new MacBook Pro is expected to enter mass production in the first half of 2024 and will use an M3 Pro/M3 Max processor produced in a 3nm process (which could be Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's N3P or N3S), according to analyst Guo Mingyi. His new forecast for the next new MaC mini is similar to what he predicted about 10 months ago. He believes that the new Mac mini in 2024 will probably maintain a similar design.

United Airlines adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter was $2.46, while analysts expected $2.12

$United Airlines (UAL.US)$Fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $2.46, analysts expect $2.12; first quarter adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $0.50 to $1.00, analysts expect $0.22; adjusted capital expenditure for 2023 is expected to be $8.5 billion, analysts expect $8.25 billion; fourth quarter operating income is $12.4 billion, analysts expect $12.23 billion.

NetEase, Inc: never sought IP control of Blizzard games or other partners

$NetEase (NTES.US)$Release about the media report that "NetEase, Inc wants control of IP": we are concerned that some media have received rumors that NetEase, Inc wants control of Blizzard IP. Here, we must seriously correct: as an agency, NetEase, Inc has never sought control of IP of Blizzard games or other partners. In the course of long-term cooperation over the past 14 years, NetEase, Inc has used and authorized any Blizzard IP in accordance with the terms of the contract and obtained Blizzard's consent and approval. IP cooperation with other partners is also based on this principle.

IQIYI, Inc. fell by more than 16%.

$iQIYI (IQ.US)$After closing down 16.44% on Tuesday, the company announced plans to issue 76.5 million shares of ADS at $5.90 a share. The net income from the issue of American depositary shares is expected to be $442.3 million.

Yesterday's turnover of US stocks TOP20

Turnover TOP 20 | it is said that Microsoft Corp plans to lay off more than 10, 000 people. Morgan Stanley's Q4 performance narrowly beat market expectations and closed up nearly 6%.

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

Meituan was sold in Beishui for eight consecutive days, totaling more than HK $3.1 billion.

Southbound Capital bought a net HK $2.67 billion of Hong Kong stocks on Tuesday.$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$、$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$、$SIMCERE PHARMA (02096.HK)$Received a net purchase of HK $2.2 billion, HK $541 million and HK $260 million respectively$CCB (00939.HK)$、$TENCENT (00700.HK)$、$Meituan-W (03690.HK)$、$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$The net sales were HK $462 million, HK $429 million, HK $286 million and HK $213 million respectively.

It is worth noting that southbound funds have sold Meituan for eight consecutive trading days, totaling about HK $3.144 billion.

88 games were approved, including NetEase, Inc, Tencent and Miha you.

The State Press and publication Administration released the approval information of domestic online games in January, a total of 88 games were approved, including 84 mobile games, 8 client games and 1 game console-Switch. The number of version numbers issued this time has reached the highest level since last year.

Focus today

Keywords: central Bank of Japan interest rate resolution, US December PPI data, Fed officials' speech, Hong Kong stock Lehua Entertainment announced the winning lottery.

On Wednesday, the annual rate of December PPI and December retail sales, known as "terrorist data", were released.

Consumer purchases are expected to fall for the second month in a row, reflecting weak car sales and falling revenue from gas stations. If cars and gasoline are not included, sales will fall for months in a row. In addition, these figures are not adjusted for inflation.
Other reports released Wednesday in the United States include the producer price index (PPI) and industrial production data. Economists expect prices paid to producers to slow further in December.

In addition, New York Fed President Williams, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostick and St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad will make speeches.

Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, known as the Federal Reserve News Agency, also wrote that US CPI data showed that inflation eased in December, which may cause the Fed to continue to cut interest rate increases to 25 basis points at its February meeting.