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国信证券:半导体行业进入筑底期 关注有望率先复苏的设计环节

Guoxin Securities: The semiconductor industry has entered a period of bottom-building, focusing on the design process that is expected to take the lead in recovery

Zhitong Finance ·  Jan 16, 2023 16:12

Zhitong Financial APP was informed that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the semiconductor industry has entered a bottoming period and is expected to be the first to hit bottom and recover. The monthly growth rate of global semiconductor sales has declined for 11 consecutive months compared with the same period last year. According to data, 3Q22 revenue of the top 10 IC design companies in the world decreased by 5.3% month-on-month. It is expected that 4Q22 and 1Q23 will continue to decrease month-on-month, and the capacity utilization and output value of 4Q22 wafer foundry will decline month-on-month. The bank believes that with the gradual digestion of downstream inventory, the semiconductor industry is gradually entering a bottoming period, and it is recommended to pay attention to the design links that have the opportunity to hit bottom and recover first this year.

Priority is given to the ability to continuously expand the capacity circle and increase the leading segments that can reach the market space, such as 300661.SZ, 688099.SH, 688141.SH, 688508.SH, 688279.SH, 688261.SH, 688798.SH, 300782.SZ, 603501.SH, 603986.SH and so on.

The main points of the report are as follows:

The SW semiconductor index fell 4.73 per cent in December, valuing it at 4.40 per cent in the last three years.

In December 2022, the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 10.43%, outperforming the Nasdaq 1.69pct, down 35.83% since the start of the year, and outperforming the Nasdaq 2.73pct. In December, the SW semiconductor index fell 4.73%, outperforming the electronics industry 0.24pct and 5.21pct; down 37.11% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the electronics industry 0.58pct and the CSI 300 index 15.48pct. From the perspective of the semiconductor sub-industry, each sub-industry has declined to varying degrees, of which semiconductor materials have the largest decline of 7.63%. As of December 31, 2022, SW semiconductor PE (TTM) is 35 times, in the last three years 4.40% quartile, with a certain margin of safety, in which the lowest closed test of integrated circuits is 20 times, and the highest of semiconductor equipment is 56 times.

Global semiconductor sales fell 9.2% in November from a year earlier, while Lianyong's revenue decline narrowed year-on-year in November.

Global semiconductor sales in November 2022 were US $45.48 billion, down 9.2% from the same period last year and 2.9% from the previous month. The year-on-year growth rate was down 4.6pct from the previous month, and has declined for 11 consecutive months since January 2022. The storage contract price and NAND spot price were unchanged from the previous month, while DRAM spot price continued to decline. 3Q22's global enterprise SSD revenue fell 28.7% to $5.2 billion month-on-month, and 4Q22 is expected to fall by another 20%, according to TrendForce. Based on the November revenue data of Taiwan stocks, the combined revenue growth rate of IC manufacturing, design and closed testing all declined year-on-year, with Lianyong narrowing year-on-year decline in November, showing signs of improvement.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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