Summary of the report:
The company is mainly based on nickel powder, rich in metal material powder products. Products cover nickel powder, copper powder, silver powder and other pure metal powder, alloy powder, silver-coated copper powder, silicon powder and other powder materials. The company's operating income grew at a compound rate of 31.64% from 2017 to 2021, and nickel powder contributed more than 90% gross profit for three consecutive years.
The company is the only 80nm nickel powder supplier in the world. The company has a strong R & D team, attaches importance to technical research and development and process improvement, independently develops PVD method to prepare ultra-fine nickel powder, and horizontally extends to other powder materials, breaking the monopoly of Japanese enterprises such as Zhaorong Chemical, Sumitomo Metal, Dongbang Titanium and other Japanese enterprises on MLCC nickel powder.
The small size and high capacity of MLCC drives the demand for high-end nickel powder. In order to adapt to the lightweight and high-capacity development of terminal products, the trend of MLCC small size and high capacity is obvious, and the internal demand structure turns to high-end MLCC and consumer-grade small MLCC with added value, and the industry has long-term growth. The company's 80nm nickel powder can be used in high-end consumer electronics MLCC,200nm-300nm nickel powder can be used in automotive specification grade MLCC, high-end nickel powder products will benefit from it.
With the simultaneous efforts of the client and the supply side, the profitability of the company will be further improved. (1) client:
Samsung Motor, the second largest MLCC manufacturer in the world, is the company's long-term strategic partner, and the gradual expansion of its automotive specification-level MLCC production capacity will drive the company's nickel powder sales growth; Fenghua Hi-Tech, Chaozhou Sanhuan and other domestic manufacturers seize the domestic substitution trend of MLCC to accelerate production expansion. (2) supply side: the company changes its pricing model to improve the performance of gross profit margin, enhances its grading ability from various angles, actively sends samples to Japan's Murata, and breaks through new customers.
The cost reduction route of HJT battery is obvious, and silver-coated copper powder can be expected in the future. HJT battery is expected to become the next generation of mainstream photovoltaic cells, and cost reduction is the key to promote its industrialization. HJT battery low temperature silver paste consumption is large, the cost is high, silver coated copper powder can replace part of silver powder to prepare conductive paste, which can reduce the cost by 30% and 50% while ensuring the battery conversion efficiency.
The commercialization process of silicon-carbon negative electrode is accelerated, and the nano-silicon powder is ready to be developed. Silicon-carbon negative electrode can break through the bottleneck of energy density of graphite negative electrode and improve the charging speed of electric vehicles, which is expected to become the next generation of lithium anode materials. The company is actively docking downstream lithium battery negative electrode manufacturers, nano-silicon powder is in the customer evaluation stage.
Profit forecast: the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 1.370 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.75 million yuan and a "buy" rating of 72.52X/38.79X/23.50X corresponding to 72.52X/38.79X/23.50X.
Risk hint: HJT progress is not as expected; silicon-based negative electrode progress is not as expected