Event: the company released a pre-increase in its annual performance in 2022, with an estimated return net profit of 4742.11-60.0668 million yuan, which is expected to be deducted from non-return net profit of 2042.11-33.0668 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, and + 1571% + 2606% compared with the same period last year. In a single quarter, 22Q4 is expected to achieve a net profit of 3218.13-46.827 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 68%, 130%, and 327%, respectively. It is estimated that the net profit will be deducted from 2767.06 to 40.3163 million yuan, + 20%, 75%, and + 2469-3552%, respectively. The company's performance exceeded expectations. The company's core equipment-software full self-made + binding operators to increase the premium model, is expected to drive the profit margin level to exceed the industry average.
Traditional business: ploughing the State Grid, focusing on charging pile equipment. In 2023, the investment in the national power grid will exceed 520 billion yuan, a new record. Benefiting from policies such as "double carbon", the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased sharply, reaching 7.058 million and 6.887 million respectively in 2022, accounting for 25.6% of the market. The company is a mainstream domestic power grid supplier with a number of core production technologies, and is a rare enterprise in China with the production and processing capacity and installation qualification of the core components of C-GIS intelligent ring cabinets; its subsidiary Nanjing Nengrui is one of the domestic mainstream charging pile operators, mastering advanced charging technologies such as high-power fast charging technology and V2X recharging technology. Compared with competitors in the same industry, the company has the following advantages: ① channel advantage. Golden Crown shares work closely with State Grid and nearly 20 provincial network companies with a wide range of channels. ② regional advantage. Golden Crown has bases in Changchun, Hangzhou, Changzhou and Nanjing, with obvious supply chain and regional advantages, laying a good production capacity foundation for expanding the national market and new energy storage business this year and in the future. Technical advantages of ③ products. Since listing, the company's core technology backbone and R & D team are stable, national grid system products continue to update performance iteration to ensure sufficient competitiveness; long-term accumulation of electronic and power technology, with the ability to develop photovoltaic energy storage core system.
④ brand advantage. The company has a good reputation, State Grid spot checks are excellent or good, historical performance and qualifications are in the forefront of national grid suppliers. Affected by the epidemic in 22, the bidding of the State Grid was affected to a certain extent, and the bidding slowed down, but there is expected to be a larger volume this year; in terms of charging pile business, the heavy truck exchange power station in the first quarter of this year was put into production, and sales orders were signed with a number of heavy truck car companies at the end of the year. At the same time, European standard certification is also being carried out, and overseas markets will be expanded once realized.
Innovative business: energy storage equipment set sail. In 2022, the company achieved all-round coverage of products except the battery core. The PCS and EMS systems developed by Changchun Base and the BMS and Pack systems developed by Changzhou Base are undergoing testing certification, which is expected to be completed in the first quarter of this year. On the whole, the energy storage core products can start production and delivery in the first quarter of this year. In addition, the company has also made some progress in market expansion in 2022. In December 2022, the company signed a 60 million yuan lithium battery energy storage system procurement framework contract with Zhejiang Jin Ruiguan Energy Technology Co., Ltd., of which 8.6MWh energy storage system is being implemented. As of December 2022, some orders have been obtained for energy storage projects. In terms of new energy allocation and storage, wind storage integrated energy management has obtained 80 MW, light storage integrated energy management has achieved 130 MW, and industrial and commercial user-side energy storage has 105 MW hours in Zhejiang region. After the completion of the production line of matching products this year, the company will continue to provide customers with "optical storage and charging".
Integrated energy services. We conservatively estimate that the mid-bid of the company's large reserve business in 23 years is expected to exceed 1 gigawatt hour, corresponding to the order value of more than 1.5 billion yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: from 2022 to 2024, the company is expected to achieve an operating income of 1.235 / 2.470 million yuan, and a net profit of 0.56 billion yuan, 2.11 billion yuan. The corresponding PE is 82.3 / 21.9 / 14.7 times respectively. From a split point of view, the performance of the main business and energy storage business in 23 years is expected to be 1.40 yuan and 80 million yuan respectively (consider recognizing 1 billion revenue). We believe that the company may be at the inflection point of the main business performance, while the large storage business products, channels, business models have been mature, is expected to fully benefit from 23 years of domestic large storage machine market, continue to maintain the overweight rating.
Risk hints: raw material price fluctuation risk, market competition exceeding expectations, industry policy change risk.