Event: Guolian shares announced the annual performance pre-increase announcement in 2022, the company estimates that the operating income in 2022 is about 72.65 billion to 73.4 billion yuan, yoy+95.14%~97.15%; return net profit is 1.12 to 1.135 billion yuan, yoy+93.63%~96.23%; deducting non-net profit of 1.038 to 1.053 billion yuan, yoy+95.40%~98.23%.
Comments:
Benefiting from the rapid growth of trading volume on the platform, the growth rate on the revenue side remains stable. The company expects operating income of 72.65 billion to 73.4 billion yuan in 2022, yoy+95.14%~97.15%. The revenue growth of this period mainly benefits from the active and efficient upstream and downstream strategy implemented by the company in the context of the epidemic, which makes the company's online commodity trading income grow.
Quarterly profit growth performance is eye-catching, net profit margin inflection point is expected to occur. The company predicts that the net profit of 2022 is about 1.121135 million yuan, and the non-net profit of yoy+93.63%~96.23%; deduction is about 1.038 million 1.053 billion yuan, yoy+95.40%~98.23%. According to the forecast of the annual performance, the net profit of Q4 in a single quarter is about 437-452 million yuan, and the non-net profit deducted by yoy+82.4%~88.7%; is about 417-432 million yuan, yoy+85.3%~92%. The company's rapid profit growth in the fourth quarter benefited from the increase in revenue from online commodity trading.
Senior executives increase their holdings and buy back shares, demonstrating the company's confidence in development. On December 22, 2022, the company announced that controlling shareholders, actual controllers, directors, supervisors and company managers intend to actively increase their holdings of the company within six months from November 29, 2022, demonstrating their confidence in the company's future development and recognition of the company's long-term investment value. At the same time, the company issued a buyback announcement in December, with a total repurchase capital of RMB 200 million to 400 million yuan (inclusive), and the repurchase shares are intended to be used for the implementation of employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, which is conducive to improving team cohesion and competitiveness.
Cloud factory cooperation continues to promote, the company has broad prospects for development. The company's many e-commerce companies in-depth implementation of the "platform, science and technology, data" strategy, continue to vigorously implement active and efficient upstream and downstream strategies.
Over the past three years, 100 cloud factories plan to make steady progress, and the second growth curve has gradually taken shape. More than 50 factories have participated in the double Ten E-commerce Festival in Q4, and the 53 cloud factories have covered 10 industrial chains.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as a domestic industrial B2B e-commerce and industrial Internet leading enterprises, under the background of the rapid development of B2B e-commerce industry, the growth logic of the main business sectors is clear, and the performance is growing rapidly. According to the consensus forecast of Wind on January 13, the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 709.87%, 1224.25 and 198.759 billion respectively, an increase of 90.67%, 72.46% and 62.35% over the same period last year, and the net profit of its home will be RMB 10.47, 17.59 and 28.11 million respectively, an increase of 8102%, 67.98% and 59.80% over the same period last year.
Risk factors: the risk of intensified competition in B2B industry, the repeated impact of domestic epidemic on the supply chain, the risk caused by macroeconomic cycle, the risk of price fluctuations of major commodities, and so on.