Events:
On January 12, Nuohui Health released its earnings forecast for 2022: as of December 31, 2022, according to unaudited operating data, the group's total revenue for 2022 is expected to range from 750.5 million yuan to 782.5 million yuan, a year-on-year growth range of 252.7 to 267.7 percent.
The group's annual gross margin is expected to range from 638.8 million yuan to 656.3 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth range of 313.2% to 324.5%.
Comments:
The commercialization of products is rapid, and the scale effect promotes the increase of gross profit margin. The company's expected revenue in 2022 is 750.5 million yuan to 782.5 million yuan, an increase of 252.7% to 267.7% over the same period last year. Gross profit ranges from 638.8 million yuan to 656.3 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth range of 313.2% to 324.5%. Economies of scale led to an increase in gross profit margin, which rose to 82.0% from 56.2% in the same period last year. Excellent commercialization ability, improved user stickiness, hospital and online sales have ushered in rapid growth.
The research and development of cancer early screening products is progressing smoothly, and Chang Weiqing, a colorectal cancer early screening product, has multiple commercial barriers. Chang Weiqing is the only cancer screening molecular detection product approved by the State Drug Administration in China. It is expected to take more than 5 years for similar products to be put on the market. Test the performance of the ceiling. Colorectal cancer early screening product Chang Weiqing has the best sensitivity in the industry. compared with the retrospective study, the data results are excellent, reflecting the strong R & D competitiveness of its technology platform. The scale effect of cost. The gross profit margin of the company's products rose to 84.5% from 74.7% in the same period last year, and the testing principle determines that economies of scale will further increase the gross profit margin. The hospital promotes the idea parallel organization cooperation, the product commercialization quantity, the commercialization barrier is being established. The company and the Medical Department of Peking University carry out the PANDA research project of Chinese pan-cancer species early screening and early diagnosis cohort, covering more than 20 kinds of high-risk cancers in China, including lung cancer.
Focus on market education has been selected many times to screen diagnosis and treatment guidelines, early screening market space is broad. The company focuses on building a sales team to carry out hospital promotion and accelerate clinical admission. Chang Weiqing has been included in all three guidelines for colorectal cancer screening and treatment; carry out cooperation among health examination institutions and improve product penetration combined with insurance. According to statistics, there are about 120 million people at high risk of colorectal cancer in China, which has a broad market space.
Profit forecast: the company has a broad market space for its products, and its commercialized growth exceeds expectations. We raise our forecast for 2022-2024 to achieve revenue of 7.69 trillion yuan, or 2.341 billion yuan per share, and earnings per share of-0.60, 0.40 and 0.07 yuan per share, giving the company a "buy" investment rating.
Risk hint: commercialization is not as expected, R & D is not as expected as expected.