Event: the company issued a performance forecast for 2022, realizing a net profit of 156 million-168 million yuan in 2022, an increase of 68.82%-81.81% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 151 million-163 million yuan, an increase of 64.94%-78.04% over the same period last year.
Comments:
Benefiting from the 22-year high performance growth of Automotive Electronics Gaojing, 22Q4 performance is slightly lower than expected: benefiting from the development trend of automotive electrification, intelligence and integration, driving the growth of supporting electronic hardware demand, the prosperity of automotive electronics continues to improve, the company's distribution business and self-developed IC business have achieved double growth of performance scale and profit level. Due to the repeated epidemic situation in many places in China, the large-scale spread of the epidemic in December, and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, the external environment faced by the company has been affected to a certain extent, but the company has actively taken relevant measures to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the company as much as possible. In 22 years, Q4 achieved a net profit of 37 million-49 million, unchanged from the same period last year-+ 32.4%; month-on-month-11.9%.
Over the past 22 years, the company has achieved steady growth in distribution business: the company continues to work hard to lay out the field of automotive electronics, covering market segments such as automotive lighting, automotive cockpit, automotive passive components and automotive wire-by-wire chassis. Make use of their own advantages to actively expand business, in order to achieve steady growth of distribution business. In 2022, the operating income of the distribution business is expected to be 1.95 billion-2.05 billion yuan, an increase of 46.02%-53.50% over the same period last year.
In February of 22, the company has contributed a certain amount of revenue to the company's distribution business. 70% of its distribution and sales revenue comes from Murata's passive components market, and the two sides can achieve complementary customer resources. further expand the market share of passive components in the company's automotive electronics business.
The automotive analog chip business has the advantage of first mover and is optimistic about maintaining high growth in the future. Based on the company's long-term layout and expansion in the field of automotive electronics, the company's automotive analog IC products have certain first-mover advantages, and the related products that have been mass-produced have passed the AEC-Q100 vehicle specification certification. Batch loading has been realized in BYD, Geely, Great Wall, Changan, Hyundai, FAW, Kia, Chrysler, Volkswagen, XPeng Inc., NIO Inc. and other well-known automobile manufacturers at home and abroad, which has laid a solid foundation for the company to further open the downstream market of automobile IC of independent R & D and design. During the reporting period, the company's self-developed IC business performed prominently, with an estimated operating income of 200 million yuan to 250 million yuan, an increase of 177.21% Rue 246.51% over the same period last year, and a gross profit margin of 43.00%-47.00%.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: taking into account the disturbance of the epidemic in December 22 and the company's business expansion, we slightly lowered the company's 22-24 return net profit to 1.67,2.52 and 360 million yuan (- 3%), compared with the original forecast of 1.76,2.66 and 371 million yuan, and the current market capitalization corresponding to PE is 34x/23x/16x.
Under the background of the continuous improvement of the prosperity of the automotive electronics market, the company simulates the two major businesses of IC design and distribution, achieving rapid growth through endogenesis and epitaxy, with huge room for growth in the future and maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of a decline in the automobile market; the risk of impairment of goodwill.
