Will US stocks usher in the first "declining earnings season" since the epidemic? Obviously, the market does not have high hopes this time, after all, many institutions and companies have lowered their profit forecasts many times before.
Analysts expect profits for S & P 500 stocks to fall 4.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, the first decline since the third quarter of 2020 and in sharp contrast to profit growth of more than 31 per cent in the same period in 2021, according to FactSet, a financial data provider.
In 2022, tech stocks, once the backbone, turned into crane tails, dragging down the market with their poor performance. The new earnings test is coming, and the tech giants are back in the spotlight.
Fourth-quarter earnings for technology stocks, which account for nearly 1/4 of the s & p 500, are expected to fall 9% in the fourth quarter, according to Refinitiv, as wage costs at many software companies rise sharply, corporate demand slows and the semiconductor industry remains depressed.
Among them, Amazon.Com Inc is expected to become the largest profit decline in the non-essential consumer goods sector; in the science and technology information sector, Apple Inc, Intel Corp and Microsoft Corp will contribute the largest profit decline.
It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of the year, affected by weak demand, Tesla, Inc. and Apple Inc have been the first to be hunted by bears, while Microsoft Corp, who has always been a "top student" in the eyes of the capital market, has also ushered in skeptical voices. its cloud service revenue is said to be in a serious decline.
In addition, key businesses of technology companies are also at risk, such as limited supply of Apple Inc iPhone and weak online advertising by companies such as Alphabet Inc-CL C and Meta. Second, as the slowdown in corporate spending may mean a weakening of the cloud computing trend, the cloud computing business, the main driver of Amazon.Com Inc's performance, will also be affected, a risk mentioned by UBS when it downgraded Microsoft Corp.
Which of the tech giants is most likely to achieve performance goals?
Against a backdrop of doubts about raising interest rates and the ubiquity of worries about recession, will tech giants become a boost or resistance as companies release their lists one after another?
Futu Information has collected the performance guidelines of some US head technology companies for cattle friends for reference.
Other guidelines:
$Apple (AAPL.US)$New iPhone 14 sales are expected to continue to Q4, but foreign exchange headwinds will continue to have a negative impact of about 10 per cent, posing major challenges in both emerging market pricing and revenue exchange in international markets, resulting in revenue growth narrowing to less than 8 per cent.
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$It is expected that the headwind of foreign exchange will reduce income growth by 5%, which is much slower than that of the previous quarter, while the rising expense rate will lead to a continued decline in profit margins.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$It is expected that the latest quarterly revenue will be + 20.8% compared with the same period last year, and the exchange rate will have a negative impact on 4.6pct on revenue.
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Q4 revenue growth is expected to face greater challenges compared with last year's high base. In 2023, the company will focus on reducing operating expenses growth and the number of new employees, and will continue to invest in server-based technology infrastructure.
$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Q4 revenue decline is expected to expand, foreign exchange headwind is expected to bring a 7% year-on-year loss.
$Netflix (NFLX.US)$Q4 revenue growth is expected to slow to 0.9%, the exchange rate has a negative impact on 8pct, the number of members will increase steadily, and Q4 operating profit margin is expected to decline 4pct to 4.2% compared with the same period.
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$、$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$High cardinality influence may extend to 23Q1.
Patrick Burton, a portfolio manager at Winslow Capital Management, points out that the market has not yet digested the impact of the company's earnings recession, in which investors will be less tolerant of lack of profitability, slowing economic growth, weak earnings or weak performance guidance.
Some optimistic analysts point out that market expectations for performance are so low that US stocks' fourth-quarter results may be better than expected, and "shock" may also become a "surprise".
The final answer of 2022!
Whose "score" do you expect more?
What are the risks worth paying attention to?
Welcome to share the most successful or deal you've ever made during the earnings season.
Come on, shout out your answer in the comments area.
Edit / Corrine