After a dismal 2022, the u.s. stock market got off to a good start in the first week of the new year, with both the Dow and the s & p 500 up 1.5% last week and the Nasdaq up 1% a week.

But for the market, a new round of challenges will follow, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell leading a number of officials to speak and the final CPI report before the Fed's February interest rate meeting. In addition, the Q4 earnings season will begin this week, whether the risk of earnings recession brought about by the economic downturn will come as expected, and the persistence of the rebound in US stocks in the case of continued capital outflows remains to be seen.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell led a number of officials to deliver a speech.

In the new year, the main line of US stock trading still revolves around the Fed's monetary policy and economic data. The first major global monetary meeting in 2023 will be held in Stockholm on Tuesday, with the theme of central bank independence, when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also make a public speech.

According to the schedule, Powell will give two public speeches on Tuesday, from which investors may be expected to find clues as to how the current rate hike cycle will play out.

17:30 speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Bank of England Governor Pele

At 22:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participated in the discussion on the independence of the central bank.

In addition, a number of Fed officials will continue to make speeches this week. Among them, Huck, chairman of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve of the 2023 FOMC, who was once seen as a representative of the doves, will speak on the outlook for the US economy on Thursday.

In addition, Fed officials' speech on Friday was also a top priority of the week, as they spoke after the release of the CPI data, representing the Fed's interpretation of the data.

December CPI in the United States hit heavily on Thursday! Or set the tone for the first interest rate hike in 2023

The US December CPI data will be released at 21:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the last inflation data before the Fed's February interest rate meeting, and is as important as Friday's non-farm report.

Market views say that the inflation report will play two major roles: first, to determine the extent of the Fed's rate hike at its February meeting; and second, to determine whether the end-point interest rate is expected to be higher than 5%.

The market now expects that unseasonally adjusted CPI growth in the US will further slow to 6.6 per cent in December from 7.1 per cent in November, the lowest since January last year, while core CPI growth is expected to slow to 5.7 per cent from 6.0 per cent the previous month, the lowest since August last year.

In terms of current interest rate market pricing, industry insiders generally expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points at its next meeting. If the decline in CPI data can meet or even exceed market expectations, it will undoubtedly support the above bets in the market.

At present, the FedWatch tool shows that the market believes that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in January is about 75.2 per cent, up from last week, while the possibility of raising interest rates by 50 basis points has fallen slightly to 24.8 per cent.

Us stocks earnings season begins, or create the first "declining earnings season" since the epidemic?

This week, chip manufacturing giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America and other companies took the lead in announcing results, opening the prelude to the earnings season for US stocks, and the financial industry's statement on the economic outlook will become the focus of the market.

Amid widespread fears of a recession, corporate earnings have become an important window of observation. According to Refinitiv summary, it is found thatAnalysts believe that U. S. stocks will see a decline in revenue growth and earnings contraction in the fourth quarter of last year, which will be the worst performance since the epidemic.With the exception of the energy industry, most industries face challenges, with overall earnings growth excluding energy falling 6.7 per cent from a year earlier.

However, some optimistic analysts point out that market expectations for performance are so low that US stocks' fourth-quarter results may be better than expected, and "shock" may also turn into a "surprise".

The US stock market is full of interesting points this week.

Can US stocks continue to rebound?

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You are welcome to share your opinions in the comments section.

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