According to media reports, on March 8, at the second session of the 13th National people's Congress, the work report of the standing Committee of the National people's Congress mentioned: "this year, we should step up efforts to formulate and amend laws urgently needed to deepen market-oriented reform and expand a high level of opening up." implement the principle of statutory taxation. "

"concentrate our efforts on implementing the major legislative issues identified by the CPC Central Committee, including the review of the Civil Code. Legislative research and drafting, such as the formulation of the real estate tax law, should step up their work to ensure that it is completed as scheduled. "

In other words, the levy of a real estate tax may be faster than expected, but this year's drafting does not mean that it will be introduced this year, because it will take a long time from drafting, formulation, deliberation to formal introduction.

01

First of all, it depends on the strength.

In fact, whether or not to levy and when to levy these two issues are no longer important. What ordinary people should be more concerned about is, how will the real estate tax affect housing prices? And how to deal with it?

My understanding is that first of all, it depends on the strength. The real estate tax is essentially a kind of holding tax. at present, Shanghai, Chongqing and Hong Kong already levy taxes on the holding of real estate in China, but the current collection intensity of the three citiesThey're all gentle.Shanghai only levies on newly purchased houses, Chongqing only levies on high-end properties. Hong Kong's tax base is considered to be rent rather than housing market value, and there is a relatively loose exemption, so holding tax has little effect on the trend of house prices in these three cities.

Because of this, many people will take the experience of these three cities as an example, disdaining the real estate tax and seriously underestimating the power of this tax.In many countries, the real estate tax is not mild at all.In some states in the United States, no matter how big the house is, no matter how many houses you have or how many people you live in, as long as you have a house, you have to pay property tax.

Tax rates are determined by state governments, which account for 1% to 3% of home value each year, up to 3% in new York and Texas, and about 1% in California. It should be noted that the government will regularly evaluate the value of the house, and then calculate the tax according to the evaluation value, and the evaluation value is basically synchronized with the changes in the market. If the house price is open, the property tax will be paid more, and when the house price falls, it will pay less.

In addition, the cost of holding a house in the United States is not only property tax, but also expensive property management fees, and the cost of holding houses in some states is even higher than 3%.

In other words, in some states in the United States, the annual holding cost of a property with a market price of 5 million can be as high as 150000, and even if levied at a median tax rate of 1.5%, it is as high as 75000 yuan. How many ordinary families in China can afford it?

In addition, will there be a progressive punitive tax rate for those who own dozens of houses? It's possible.

02

The property tax will not reduce the house price, but it will impact its investment attribute.

The property tax will greatly increase the holding cost and transaction cost of the house, but this does not mean that the government wants to bring down the house price, because from the original intention of the policy design, the tax is mainly to cultivate a "long-term meal ticket" for the local government. and it has nothing to do with lowering house prices.

What's more, if house prices really fall, the property tax will also be reduced, and a stable real estate market can cultivate a sustainable "long-term meal ticket". Therefore, the levy of the property tax will certainly take full account of the affordability of the market. If the drug is too fierce, the loss will outweigh the gain.

Looking at the world, few countries in the world will use property tax to reduce house prices, because the externality of the real estate market is too strong, especially the correlation with the financial market is very high, if house prices fluctuate too much, it will often affect the stability of the overall economic operation. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is a lesson, and no government in any country has the incentive to let house prices rise and fall.

Of course, looking back at history, it is not without a sharp fall in house prices, but it often happens during an economic crisis rather than artificial regulation.

Robert Schiller, a Nobel laureate in economics, compiled the famous Case-Shiller house price index, which found that in the 123-year history from 1890 to 2013, US house prices really plummeted only twice, during the Great Depression of 1929-1933 and during the global financial turmoil of 2007-2011, and most of the rest was rising and steady.

Having said so much, the real conclusion is that in the face of the assured "real estate tax"Neither overestimate nor underestimate. The reason why it cannot be overestimated is that it will not allow house prices to fall off a cliff, otherwise the market will be uncontrollable.

The reasons that cannot be underestimated are:Together with other combinations, it will infinitely increase transaction costs, gradually peel off the investment attributes of the house, and let the investment income of real estate return to the social risk-free interest rate level. This possibility really needs to be paid attention to.

Or the Schiller index mentioned earlier, if we take an inventory of the trend of US house prices from 1890 to 2013, we can find that US house prices have grown at an average annual rate of about 3% over the past 100 years, slightly higher than the 2.8% inflation rate in the United States. this is actually the level of social risk-free interest rate, in other words, similar to buying Yu'e Bao.

However, please note that the time span of this index is 100 years. China's real estate market is just over 20 years old, which cannot be explained by the Schiller Index. For Chinese property buyers, there is no need to consider a 100-year long investment cycle, 10 or even 5 years is enough.

03

Three suggestions to deal with

Since the general environment cannot be confronted with the general trend, how should individuals make decisions? I would like to make three suggestions:

First, decentralized configuration:Real estate tax is a kind of local tax, it is impossible to achieve a national flag, it will be based on the city policy. First-tier cities have the conditions to levy, but other cities may not. Many second-and third-tier cities are currently engaged in a war for talents. If a real estate tax is levied, it will accelerate the loss of talents and industries.

On the contrary, these cities may compete with first-tier cities for talent with low or even zero tax rates. Therefore, decentralized configuration is necessary, eggs should not be put in the same basket.

The second is to purchase properties with lease value:From the experience of New York, London and Hong Kong, rent is a useful tool to hedge the cost of property ownership. for example, the rent-to-sale ratio of many houses in New York is as high as 5%. After deducting the holding cost of three points, there are still two points of benefit. coupled with the appreciation income of two or three points a year, it is possible to beat inflation.

So,In the era of real estate tax, we must attach importance to the value of rent.This may fundamentally change the original logic of asset allocation: tourism real estate with low rental value, shops with net population outflow from the city, super-large households in the outer suburbs, etc.Three types of housesThe sell-off may be accelerated because "rent is not tax-deductible" and become worthless, while small apartments or even commercial and residential properties with high rental value in big city centers may be revalued.

The third is to have more children:China's real estate tax should have a certain area of exemption, and it is likely to be calculated on the basis of per capita area, so that families with many children can enjoy more tax exemptions. unmarried people who own houses may charge a "singles tax" because the per capita area is too large.

There are signs that the transaction costs in the real estate market will only get higher and higher, and the arbitrage space and transaction costs in any market are inversely proportional to each other. Does this mean that the window of opportunity for Chinese people to change their lives by buying houses has been quietly closed? I believe there are different opinions.

I am still optimistic about this. after all, the essential function of real estate is to fight inflation, and looking at most countries in the world, we really can't find a better tool than a house. There must be an export for a huge amount of money, right?

To make house prices really stable, we must control the issuance of money. In addition to the improvement of supply and demand (urbanization has been completed), the stability of housing prices in some developed countries is more important than the soundness of monetary policy.

If the impact of supply and demand and transaction costs on house prices is-50%, then the impact of inflation on house prices may be 200% or more, a small wind and waves can not change the direction of the river.

Real estate has always been a very complex market, the coexistence of positive and negative forces is very normal, what is really important is that we have to see where the main force is.