Event: on January 3, the company issued an annual performance forecast for 2022: the company expects to achieve a net profit of 14.0-1.6 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 99.8%-128.4% over the same period last year, and is expected to deduct a non-return net profit of 13.5-1.55 billion yuan, an increase of 97.7% over the same period last year. Of this total, the net profit of Q4 was 2.9-490 million yuan, up 34.1% from 127.7% to + 36.7%, from-19.5% to + 36.7%, and from 2.70% to 470 million yuan, up 31.8% from 127.7% and from-21.8% to + 35.1%. In line with market expectations.
It is estimated that the company's Q4 ternary material shipments are basically the same as the previous month, and shipments are expected to increase by more than 50% next year compared with the same period last year. The demand of downstream customers for the company's new models and new technology products is growing rapidly, and the company's 40,000 tons / year vehicle lithium battery cathode material expansion project has fully realized full-load operation, and some production lines of the second phase 40,000 tons / year project have been completed and put into trial operation. It is estimated that the effective production capacity will be more than 100000 tons next year, and the year-on-year shipment growth rate is expected to be 50% +.
According to the median forecast of net profit and expected shipments, it is estimated that the company's non-net profit per ton of Q4 ternary material is about 20,000 yuan, which is basically the same as the previous month. The company's revenue per ton is expected to remain at a relatively high level, which we believe is mainly due to the following reasons: first, some of the company's new production lines have been put into production, new technology and equipment have been put into use, which has improved production efficiency, while capacity expansion has brought about economies of scale and production costs have been further optimized. Second, in order to cope with large fluctuations in raw material prices and supply, the company has implemented procurement strategies such as signing long orders with suppliers to ensure a stable supply of raw materials, orderly production and timely delivery of customer orders. effectively avoid large fluctuations in raw material prices and further improve profitability; third, the company has a high proportion of self-supply of ternary precursors, effectively reducing the cost of raw materials.
Maintain the "highly recommended" investment rating. To keep the company's net profit forecast unchanged, it is estimated that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 14.9,17.6 and 2.45 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 19,16 and 12 times PE respectively, and maintain the "highly recommended" investment rating.
Risk hints: sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations, risk of technological route change, sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, less than expected construction of new projects, and so on.