Event: on December 30, the company said on the investor interactive platform that all the carbon wires produced by the current driving carbonization line of the 12000-ton carbon fiber composite project were also sold; the cooperation or intention customers are all kinds of carbon fiber extruded plate application enterprises, including wind power.

The demand increases steadily, and there is broad room for the future development of the industry: according to Saio carbon fiber, the global demand for carbon fiber will increase from 76500 tons in 2016 to 118000 tons in 2021, and CAGR will reach 9.02%. In 2025, the global demand for carbon fiber is expected to reach 200000 tons. From a domestic point of view, the demand for carbon fiber increased from 19600 tons in 2016 to 62400 tons in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 26.06%. The domestic demand for carbon fiber is expected to be 159300 tons in 2025. According to the China Chemical Industry Daily, in April this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to overcome the preparation technology of large tow above 48K, high strength, high modulus and high extension, T1100 and M65J carbon fiber. At present, after long-term technology accumulation, China's leading carbon fiber enterprises are gradually breaking foreign technology monopolies and expanding their production capacity. Domestic carbon fiber models have successfully covered T300 to T1100 and M35 to M65, achieving the alignment of the main carbon fiber models of Toray in Japan, and the performance indicators such as tensile strength, tensile modulus and elongation of some models are even better. On December 15, 2022, Jilin Chemical Fiber Group successfully started two 10,000-ton raw silk lines No. 5 and No. 6 in the second phase of the 150000-ton raw silk project. This is also the fourth production line for the group to drive since the beginning of winter, which effectively meets the production needs of downstream green power new energy, automobile lightweight, wound gas cylinders and other fields. Since 2022, Jilin Chemical Fiber Group has successively launched 60,000 tons of carbon fiber project, 150000 tons of differential acrylic fiber project and other provincial and municipal key projects. 150000 tons of raw silk project, 12000 tons and 150 million tons of carbon fiber project and compound material project are under construction at the same time. A total of 6 precursor production lines and 6 carbonization production lines have been completed and put into production throughout the year.

The integrated layout of carbon fiber can be expected for future growth: Jilin Baodi, which is 49% owned by the company, has an annual output of 8000 tons of large tow carbon fiber, and Jilin Camick, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, has an annual output of 600 tons of small tow carbon fiber. at the same time, the company has raised funds through a non-public offering to build an annual carbon fiber composite extrusion board project with an annual output of 12000 tons. The company expects that after the project is completed and reaches production, it will form a business income of 1.54 billion yuan per year. Guoxing carbon fiber: Jilin Guoxing carbon fiber mainly focuses on the large tow carbon fiber link. On May 8, 2020, it was officially assigned to Jilin Chemical Fiber Group, and the actual controller became the Jilin Municipal State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Before that, the Guoxing carbon fiber production line was relatively small. The group upgraded the original production capacity of 500t / a carbon fiber production line to about 1000 tons / year, and continued to expand production significantly in the follow-up, such as putting forward the production line planning of the 15000-ton carbon fiber project. The capacity was gradually released in August 2021, and the carbon fiber production capacity of Jilin Guoxing has reached 18000 tons / year by June 2022. At the same time, the Chemical Fiber Group has issued a commitment: within three years from March 18, 2022, the Chemical Fiber Group will take relevant measures in line with state-owned assets supervision and securities supervision, including injecting Guoxing carbon fiber control shares into listed companies, in order to further protect the interests of listed companies and minority shareholders. As the Jilin Economic and technological Development Zone, where the company is located, is a national carbon fiber high-tech industrialization base, industrial agglomeration and matching have been formed in the upstream and downstream areas of the carbon fiber industry. at the same time, with the continuous decline in the manufacturing cost of carbon fiber and its composite materials, the downstream application space is expanded, and the company's integrated layout is expected to benefit from industry expansion for a long time in the future.

Investment suggestion: in view of the high prosperity of downstream carbon fiber, the expansion of application scenarios, the increase of wind power demand and permeability, the integrated layout of carbon fiber and the prospect of future space, we estimate that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.01,0.11,0.14 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE from 2023 to 2024 will be 43 times and 34 times respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.

Risk hints: lower-than-expected macroeconomic growth, escalation of trade disputes, lower-than-expected manufacturing demand, lower-than-expected carbon fiber demand, statistical errors, forecast parameters, assumptions less than expected risk