Forecast profit growth of 99.82% over the same period last year 128.36%
According to the company's profit forecast for 2022, the net profit of 2022 is expected to be 14.0-1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 99.82% 128.36% over the same period last year. The estimated non-home net profit is 13.49% and 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 97.66% and 126.97% over the same period last year. The profit forecast is in line with expectations.
Pay attention to the main points
The production and sales of three yuan positive electrodes are booming, and the unit profit of 4Q22 maintains a high quantile. According to the company's profit forecast, the median return net profit of 4Q22 in a single quarter was 386 million yuan, an increase of 8% over the previous quarter. According to CIAPS statistics, the production capacity of the company's own production line of 4Q22 three-yuan positive pole was close to 19000 tons, which was flat compared with the previous month. We estimate that the company's 4Q22 profit per ton is close to 20,000 yuan, which is basically stable. We believe that the company has outstanding R & D strength and rich reserves of product models, and can maintain competitiveness under the background of rapid switching of three-yuan positive technology routes, and then rely on superior products to obtain technology premium. therefore, the company's three-yuan positive unit profit continues to maintain a high level.
The scale effect of the new base is significant, and the cost reduction of the supply chain is promoted in an orderly manner. During the reporting period, the company's new base of 40,000 tons of automotive lithium battery cathode materials fully operated at full load, the effective capacity reached 80,000 tons, the scale effect was effectively released, and the second phase 40,000 tons production capacity has been partially put into production. In addition, the new production line adopts new technology and new equipment to improve the production efficiency of the production line, which can further reduce manufacturing costs and improve processing profits. During the reporting period, lithium prices fluctuated greatly, but the company effectively ensured the stability of raw material supply and reduced the impact of inventory price fluctuations on profitability through procurement strategies such as signing long contracts with suppliers.
Open the positive technology route diversified layout, is expected to enjoy the industry technology dividend. As for the positive electrode of sodium battery, according to the company announcement, the company has carried out joint layout development with customers in both directions of Prussian blue analogues and layered oxides, and the samples are outstanding in capacity, cycle and other key performance indicators.
In addition, the company has carried out research and development and production capacity construction of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, and we believe that lithium iron phosphate cathode materials will also become one of the company's main products in the future. The construction of the project with an annual output of 60,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate is smooth. We expect to contribute more than 30,000 tons of shipments in 2023.
Profit forecast and valuation
We maintain the profit forecast of 14,940 million yuan in 2023 and introduce the profit forecast of 2.502 billion yuan in 2024. The current share price corresponds to the price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 pounds in 2023. We keep the target price unchanged at 20 yuan, corresponding to 19.9, 15.5 times the 2024 target price-to-earnings ratio and 34% room for increase in 2023 Universe. Maintain the "outperform industry" rating.
Risk.
The risk that the sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations, the risk of negative returns caused by sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, the risk of intensified competition in the industry, the risk of switching the technical route of cathode materials for lithium batteries, and the risk that the progress of new capacity construction is not up to expectations.