Domestic solar cell backplane leader, new business is growing rapidly
The company was founded in 2007, for the domestic solar cell backplane industry leader, the new business POE film and aluminum plastic film is in the stage of rapid development. From 2017 to 2021, the company's operating income increased from 595 million yuan to 1.289 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 21.32%. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's three major businesses all achieved rapid growth, and its operating income increased by 42.01% to 1.366 billion yuan compared with the same period last year.
Original fluorine-free BO backplane with high growth potential
Based on the mature M film technology, the company independently developed a fluorine-free BO backplane with excellent green environmental performance.
BO backplane is economical because of its 1) economy: low price (the average price in 2018 / 2019 is 27% less than that in 2018 / 2019, the average price in 2018 / 2019 is 27% less than that in 2018 / 2019, and the gross profit margin is 3% higher than that of single-sided fluorine film backplane), which has high efficiency and can be replaced by fluorine-containing backplane; 2) low water vapor permeability: it can meet the high waterproof requirements of N-type batteries. 3) Green fluorine-free: no toxic substances will be emitted in the process of incineration, degradation and disposal, which is in line with the theme of the environmental protection era and has high growth potential. In addition, the company's newly developed black backplane has both aesthetics and high efficiency, and has been recognized by customers and ordered in batches. We expect BO backplane sales to reach 80% + in 2022.
POE film business continues to develop and has significant advantages for a long time.
Under the trend of N-type and double-sided double glass (the proportion of double-sided components is expected to increase from 37% to 50% from 2021 to 2030), POE has more room for growth because of its excellent moisture barrier performance and anti-PID performance. In the long run, the company relies on the backplane business to establish a good customer relationship, and there are advantages in the introduction of head customers (estimated production capacity of 1.6 billion ping + in 24 years).
Break the monopoly of aluminum-plastic film technology and reduce the cost of raw materials produced by themselves.
At this stage, the production technology and raw materials of aluminum-plastic film are still monopolized by overseas manufacturers. The company has continued to carry out independent research and development for many years, and achieved breakthroughs in the following aspects: 1) the technical side: the dry-heat production process has been developed, and the key indicators such as stamping performance, product reliability and stability are not inferior to overseas manufacturers; 2) the raw material side: realize the independent production of raw material CPP and adhesive with significant cost advantage.
The price of the company is about 32% 50% lower than that of overseas enterprises, and the future cost is expected to fall by 20% +. At present, the testing work of the company's aluminum-plastic film is progressing smoothly, small batch shipments have been achieved, and full domestic replacement is expected to be ushered in in the medium and long term.
Profit Forecast:
We predict that the company's net profit in 2022, 2023, and 2024 will be 1.90, 485, 745 million respectively, an increase of 54%, 156%, and 54%, respectively. Taking into account the N-type trend of the company's backplane business and plastic film business has great growth potential, while aluminum film business is expected to benefit from domestic substitution, we give the company 2023 PE 28X, corresponding to the market capitalization of 13.58 billion yuan, corresponding to the stock price of 67 yuan, the first coverage, given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material prices fluctuate; downstream demand is lower than expected; new technologies and new product research and development are not as expected; project production schedule is not as expected; the calculation is subjective.