Oriental selection: "used to be a teacher, now a salesman"
The phased success of live e-commerce indicates that great progress has been made in the transformation of education and training leaders in the past, and the market has begun to reevaluate the investment value of new business. This chapter reviews the development process of various stages of the Oriental selection project: 1) at the end of 2021, looking back to the original start-up of the project, New Oriental Education & Technology Group aimed at the participation in the transformation of the upstream industrial chain as early as the positioning of the e-commerce project. rather than a live studio-centered performance with goods. 2) during the iteration period from January to May in 2022, the anchors' team made a high-frequency iteration of the live broadcast form, forming a unique style, and the behind-the-scenes supply chain exploration ushered in a breakthrough and launched the first batch of high-quality self-made products; 3) the June 2022 "broken circle" event focused on the emotional tone and content value of the live broadcast room in the communication field. 4) during the development period from July 2022 to the present, Orient has selected as the head anchor of Douyin, the "front" live broadcast has been comprehensively improved (the live broadcast data has stabilized, the consumer behavior has changed, and the content attributes have been strengthened), and the proprietary platform has risen "behind the scenes". (upward supply chain promotes production by sales, downward cooperation with logistics leaders, and middle and background construction is strengthened synchronously).
Value orientation: not a MCN organization, beyond interest e-commerce
At present, the evaluation of the company's business development in the market is mainly based on the explicit perspective of "live studio data", which more reflects the company's channel sales ability; such being the case, this chapter focuses on analyzing the channel characteristics and development stage of live e-commerce. Oriental selection is placed in the current e-commerce environment to make value positioning. We believe that live e-commerce is in a period of iterative channel change, and the low-price second-kill mode of major anchors after combining with "Red economy" in the first half is not sustainable. Oriental selection, as a representative anchor that appeared in 2022, shows many characteristics different from the old model-after all, Xindong, once an educational institution, resists personal IP in the form of famous teachers, and insists on platform construction rather than pursuing the scale effect of personal influence. From this we give the value orientation: the essence of the oriental selection model is not a MCN organization, and the realization potential may exceed the concept of "interest e-commerce" put forward by the platform.
Growth ambition: Channel first, Brand rise
We believe that the valuation of Oriental selection should go beyond channel capacity and rise to brand value. The unique endowment of Oriental selection lies in that, as an educational brand with national awareness, the company has the potential to tap the mind of its own brand, control the production supply chain, and control the core pricing power in its own hands. and participate in more profit links in the value chain as much as possible. Based on the analysis framework of consumer goods value chain of "(OEM) production-Brand-Channel", this chapter discusses the development path of channel merchants and brands trying to open the whole link in the OEM model. It focuses on the analysis of the boutique e-commerce model represented by NetEase, Inc Yan Xuan and XIAOMI Youfang, as well as the online celebrity brand model represented by Antarctic e-commerce, three squirrels and Huaxizi. In the comparison and summary, it is concluded that the advantage of oriental selection lies in the relative balance of channel ability and brand mind. On the channel side, Oriental selection coincides with Douyin's "content ecommerce"
In the period of development, and this stage does not rely on the acquisition of customers; brand end, New Oriental Education & Technology Group brand and teacher Yu Minhong's education industry has created national brand awareness and circle influence, and the cultural media attribute will be further strengthened in the future. Finally, we make a supplementary analysis of the company's product practice, disassemble the current product format combination, and explain how the company "pays attention to the key points and make up the deficiency" in the construction of the supply chain. pay attention to the commodity category logic of the account matrix ("key") and the improvement of comprehensive supply chain capability ("short board").
Investment advice: value potential of transforming from "channel merchant" to "brand merchant" Eastern selection flourished after Douyin broke the circle, which actually reflects the growth of the matching of "new people" and "emerging media" in the tide of the times. We believe that Oriental selection has the value potential to transform from "channel merchants" to "brand merchants": in the short term, we are optimistic about the improvement of account matrix and category matrix, and the growth of transaction data; in the medium term, we are optimistic about the development of Dongfang selection self-operated products and the improvement of repurchase rate. Omni-channel operation; in the long term, we look forward to the comprehensive deepening of the company's "product, media, public welfare" strategy, helping agricultural undertakings to achieve results, and the benign spread of brand culture. FY2023~2025 is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.8,8.7 and 1.54 billion yuan, with a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1, the public domain flow peaked, the sales growth slowed down; 2, the comprehensive supply chain capacity is limited; 3, brand public relations risk and so on.