Core viewpoints
The company's main business is mold as the core, automobile inspection tools, automatic tooling equipment and parts as the extension, customers basically cover the major international well-known automobile interior and exterior decoration enterprises, the products are mainly located in the middle and high-end market. The company has an experienced and stable technical team, and the four core technical personnel have all worked in the company for more than 15 years. By the end of September 2022, the company has 210 technical personnel, accounting for 16.85% of the total employees.
Automobile mold inspection tools are customized products, and the main users are vehicle factories and auto parts suppliers. The supply and demand of the downstream vehicle market generally will not directly affect the supply and demand of automobile moulds. However, the strong demand of the downstream automobile industry will lay a good market foundation for the sustainable development of the upstream automobile mold industry. In recent years, the number of new or modified models on the market has increased year by year, and the increase in the number of models has effectively driven the income scale of the whole mold industry. "Internal and external decoration" parts generally belong to customized products that cater to consumers, and the use of platform common parts is relatively rare. The promotion of the share of independent brands is also inseparable from the recognition of car owners for the upgrading of their interior and appearance, which helps to promote the overall development of internal and external accessories to a high-end direction. Through the current situation of the company: the improvement of the utilization rate of CNC processing equipment, the improvement of inventory balance, the sharp rise in contract liabilities and the imminent expansion of production capacity, we believe that the company's mold inspection tool revenue will rebound to a certain extent in the next 1-2 years, and the objective environment in terms of cost will be optimized, so the performance of this sector is expected to rebound.
Chaoda began to produce and sell new energy battery boxes in 2019. Cooperation has been reached with customers such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Chongqing Jinkang Power, Wuhu Qida Power, Power Energy (Hefei) Power, Duofuo New Energy and Anhui Jianghuai Huating Battery, etc., with an income of 48.62 million yuan from January to September 2022.
The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise 469 million yuan and expand production by 200000 units. If it reaches production, its annual income is expected to increase by 630 million yuan. Expansion and production can be expected to start production in 2025.
Investment suggestion
We estimate that the operating income of the company in 2022-2024 will be 493 million yuan, 620 million yuan, respectively, and the net profit returned to its mother will be 0.61 yuan 0.70 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS for 2022-2024 will be 0.84 pound 0.96 million yuan, respectively. Based on the closing price of RMB 26.49 on December 29th, 2022, the corresponding PE is 31.63Unix 27.57max 22.69x, covering for the first time, and given a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint
Macroeconomic fluctuations; convertible bond issuance is not as expected; international trade and exchange rate fluctuations; new project promotion is not as expected.