share_log

概念追踪 | 国家关税总水平降至7.3% 机构:跨境电商核心标的估值处低位 配置性价比高(附概念股)

Concept tracking | The overall national tariff level fell to 7.3% institutions: the valuation office of the core target of cross-border e-commerce is low and cost-effective (with concept stocks)

Zhitong Finance ·  Dec 30, 2022 07:59

Zhitong Finance APP learned that the tariff Commission of the State Council issued a notice that it would adjust import and export tariffs on some goods in 2023. After the adjustment, China's total tariff level will be reduced from 7.4% to 7.3%. Caitong Securities said it is firmly optimistic about long-term opportunities in the cross-border e-commerce industry. Cross-border e-commerce shortens the trade chain, essentially improves the efficiency of cross-border retail, and the track has a long slope and thick snow. At present, the valuation level of the core target of cross-border e-commerce is historically low, and the allocation performance-to-price ratio is high at this stage.

Recently, Zhang Kuo, president of BABA International Station, said that the overall foreign trade situation next year will come out of a "U-shaped" rebound curve, "U-shaped rebound" is not a "V-shaped linear rebound", recovery will take time, but recovery will certainly come. Judging from recent data, inflation in Europe and the United States is falling from high levels, and the inflection point in overseas inventories will also occur next year. Overseas demand will recover next year. As a leading indicator in the field of foreign tradeAt present, the active traffic and high-quality business opportunities of a series of cross-border e-commerce platforms continue to rise, which is a clear signal.

According to the report on the Development status and typical case study of China's Cross-border Export E-commerce Industry from 2022 to 2023, the scale of China's cross-border e-commerce exports in 2021 is 1.44 trillion yuan, and is expected to reach 2.95 trillion yuan in 2024. In this regard, Ai media consulting analysts believe that "affected by the general environment, foreign consumers prefer e-commerce, a less contact, safer way of shopping, promoting the development of the e-commerce industry."

The rapid development of the Internet and policy support promote the sustained growth of China's cross-border e-commerce exports. Relevant data show that the average annual compound growth rate of China's exports from 2000 to 2021 is 26.5%. Although the growth rate of China's exports has slowed in recent years, it is still on the path of sustained growth. China's exports totaled 21.8 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2022, making it the world's largest exporter, and the penetration of cross-border e-commerce exports has increased steadily. The number of people on the global Internet in 2022 was 5.47 billion, up 17.4% from the same period last year; the penetration rate was 69%, an increase of 9.5% over 2021.

Towards the end of the year, shopping festivals such as Black five, double Eleven and double Twelve are coming one after another.In the generally pessimistic expectation of the consumer marketThe achievements of this year's e-commerce promotion are still remarkable.. According to the statistics of e-commerce platform Shopee, the number of goods sold by tens of thousands of cross-border sellers on the platform during the 11 / 11 promotion period has increased more than 10 times than usual, and the number of Shopee Live views during the promotion period has exceeded 1.5 billion, reflecting the attraction of the shopping festival to consumers. In the "black five net one" boost, Australia's online trading volume in November increased by 3% compared with the same period last year, and online shopping volume increased by 38% compared with the same period in October.

Global e-commerce penetration has not yet peaked. According to eMarketer, global e-commerce retail will be $4.28 trillion in 2020, and the market size CAGR is forecast to be 10% in 2021-2024.Insider Intelligence predicts that the fastest growing regions of retail e-commerce in 2022 are Southeast Asia and Latin America, leading the world with 20.6 per cent and 20.4 per cent, respectively. In addition, China, as the largest cross-border e-commerce market in the Asia-Pacific region, has exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan in 2021.In the past five years, the scale of cross-border e-commerce in China has increased nearly 10 times. In the first half of this year, the import and export volume of China's cross-border e-commerce increased by 28.6% compared with the same period last year.

At the same time, in recent years, the state has increased its support for cross-border export e-commerce in many ways.This year, China's comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zone has been expanded twice.In February, China's comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zone was set up in 27 cities and regions, including Ordos, basically covering the whole country, forming a development pattern of linkage at home and abroad and mutual assistance between the East and the West. In November, China's comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot area expanded to 33 cities, including Langfang, focusing on the central and western regions, and filled the gap that there was no comprehensive cross-border e-commerce test zone in Tibet.

CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD also pointed out that after 20-21 years of barbaric growth of cross-border e-commerce and industry shocks, the overall cross-border e-commerce has entered a stage of stable development this year. Analysts believe that the industry is expected to maintain long-term improvement under multiple benefits.

Related concept stocks:

300729.SZ: the company said on the interactive platform that the company has 12 years of cross-border e-commerce operation experience. At present, the company's cross-border e-commerce business accounts for about 50% of revenue.

Renle (002336.SZ): the cross-border experience store service was launched on September 25, 2015. Official data show that as of June 26, 2018, 106 Renle stores across the country have launched multi-point intelligent purchasing functions, while 76 Renle stores in southern, northwest and southwest China have launched multi-point O2O distribution business one after another.

Huakai Yibai (300592.SZ): Huakai Yibai said in a survey that the company has been dominated by Amazon.Com Inc's FBA position and has the best operating results, and the proportion of FBA positions in the overall position may increase to 90% this year. Overseas warehouses are mainly aimed at other small and medium-sized e-commerce platforms. During the overseas epidemic outbreak, the sales of these platforms increased rapidly, accounting for 20% and 30% of the total sales during the peak period.

Cross-border access (002640.SZ): the cross-border export e-commerce business is mainly run by Global Tesco, Zuteng and Patuxun (the data statistics period is from January to April 2021), with key operating companies' online self-supporting channels (ZAFUL, etc.). At the same time, based on Amazon, eBay, AliExpress, Wish and other third-party channels, directly to end consumers, to provide the majority of overseas consumers with quality goods from China.

Focus Technology (002315.SZ): the company's main business is full-link foreign trade service integrated platform, cross-border B2B e-commerce platform, Internet insurance agent e-commerce platform and integrated services associated with each platform business. Global Pay, an one-stop cross-border settlement product, was launched at the end of December 2021.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment