Today, after the low opening of the market, the shock differentiation, the direction of consumer recovery continues to be active, the retail sector shock is stronger. By the end of the day, retail was up 1.6%, while 000715.SZ, 600113.SH, 000679.SZ and other stocks rose by the daily limit.
Among them, ZTE Business has gained 4 consecutive boards, with a cumulative increase of 46%, making it one of the short-term popularity leaders.
Looking back on the consumption in 2022, it was obviously affected by the epidemic, the residents' willingness to consume declined, and the social zero growth rate was reduced.
In 2022, China's consumption was significantly affected by the epidemic situation, and the consumption data showed a low base on the whole. Especially under the influence of the epidemic situation from March to May and October to November, the consumption data base of Q2 and Q4 is relatively low, while that of Q1 and Q3 is relatively normal. Out of concerns about the future prospects, residents' willingness to spend has declined and their savings have risen, so there has been a relatively obvious decline in social zero growth.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3.86 trillion yuan in November, down 5.9 percent from the same period last year. Retail sales fell 5.6 percent from January to November, while retail sales of consumer goods totaled 39.919 trillion yuan, down 0.1 percent from the same period last year.
With the marginal relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures, consumption is expected to usher in a wide range of comprehensive opportunities.
Zhitong Financial APP learned that in November and December 2022, the State Council issued "20 measures" and "10 new measures" by the camera of the joint defense and control mechanism, and the prevention and control mechanism was greatly relaxed. Soochow Securities believes that after the relaxation of epidemic control and the "second shock", each consumer sector is expected to gradually usher in a rebound and recovery in consumption.
From the perspective of overseas countries, the time of the "second shock" varies from 2 to 6 months, and domestic consumption is expected to recover from February to March next year. After comparing the situation of the "second shock" after the liberalization of epidemic prevention policies in countries around the world, it is found that:
After the initial liberalization of travel, the first wave of ① countries spread on a large scale, which brought a "second impact" on travel consumption. according to the national conditions of each country, the impact time varied from 2 to 6 months.
During the "second shock" of ②, the maximum recovery degree of social zero data is generally in the range of 5-10%. The recovery degree of travel data varies, the short-distance impact is small, the long-distance impact is great, and the recovery degree of long-distance travel is generally in the range of 10-20%. After the "second shock", the travel and consumption data have been further recovered, if there is still a recurrent epidemic, the impact on consumption has a significant attenuation.
China has liberalized the control of the epidemic in December 2022, so it is expected that from February to March 2023, consumption will be expected to come out of the bottom of the "second shock".
In addition, the "outline of the Strategic Plan for expanding domestic demand (2022-2035)" was issued, and domestic demand stimulus policies appeared frequently.
On December 14, the State Council issued the outline, putting forward a series of specific measures to comprehensively promote consumption and speed up the upgrading and upgrading of consumption. After the impact of the epidemic, various localities will also introduce consumption stimulus policies. In December, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places have issued consumption vouchers, mainly in the direction of offline consumption such as catering, travel, and optional consumption such as home appliances and cars.
Consumption coupons are essentially subsidies issued by the government to promote residents' consumption. Because most consumption coupons exist in the form of full reduction coupons, consumption coupons have the leverage effect of 1VR N, which can pry a large amount of consumption.
Soochow Securities pointed out that in 2023, investment in the consumer industry looked for investment targets along the two main lines of "growth" and "value". Specifically:
1) the growth line refers to the target that has the ability to grow for a long time, has a high degree of industry prosperity, and also benefits from post-epidemic recovery to a certain extent. The recovery of consumption after the epidemic will be a continuous process, and the targets with strong growth ability have better growth sustainability, so it is recommended to pay attention to duty-free hotels, medical and cosmetics, industrial Internet and other sectors.
2) value line, which refers to the target with large flexibility in performance recovery, relatively excellent business model, severe damage during the epidemic and low valuation at present, which is expected to usher in Davis' double-click in the process of post-epidemic recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to the airport, aviation, gold jewelry, vocational education and other sectors.
On the investment target, recommend China exemption, first Travel Hotel, Shanghai Airport, Hainan Airport, Peraia, Bettany, Huaxi Biology, Aimeke, Xiamen Xiangyu, Commodity City, Zhonggong Education and so on.