The company is a leading company in automotive bearings, and high-quality customers lead the transformation of hybrid passenger cars.
The company has focused on high-end manufacturing for 30 years, leading the bearing industry in China, mastering advanced technology and customer resources, and gradually transforming the field of passenger cars to supply BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Renault Nissan, SAIC and other leading passenger car companies. From 2020 to supply BYD hybrid products, and with the growth of BYD, currently for BYD hybrid product crankshaft supply, accounting for the vast majority of the share. At the same time to develop SAIC GM, Liuzhou Saike, Dongfeng passenger cars, Geely Automobile, Li Auto Inc. a number of hybrid customers. Driven by the future hybrid rapid development, there is a broad space for development.
The field of automobile electric drive gear is broad, and the related business of the company is about to land. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the market space of electric drive gear is broad. By 2025, the market space of electric drive gear, including pure electric and hybrid, is expected to reach 13.6 billion yuan, an annualized growth rate of 60% compared with the end of 2021. With the help of high-quality customers and many years of high-end manufacturing experience, the company cut into the field of electric drive gears, and the project landed in 2023, significantly increasing revenue and profits.
Commercial vehicles and off-road bottomed out, the company's main business recovered, and performance growth was high. In 2022, the company's business was affected by a sharp decline in commercial vehicles and off-road sectors, resulting in a double decline in revenue and profitability. Affected by the relief of the epidemic, economic recovery and marginal improvement in real estate, infrastructure and logistics, commercial vehicle and off-road businesses have bottomed out and rebounded, and there is a high certainty of recovery in 2023. At present, more than 60% of the company's business comes from commercial vehicles and off-road areas, and has core competitiveness in technical technology and customer resources in bearings, clutches, spiral bevel gears and other fields, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of commercial vehicles in 2023.
Investment advice and profit Forecast
Driven by the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, including hybrid and pure electricity, and the recovery of commercial vehicles, it is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the company's net profit belonging to the parent company will be 0.61,1.96 and 270 million yuan respectively, corresponding to basic earnings per share of 0.09,0.30,0.42 yuan according to the latest equity estimates, corresponding to PE65.1, 20.34 and 14.71 times according to the latest stock prices. For the comparable company, the company will be given a 25-fold PE in 2023 with a target price of 7.50 yuan and a market capitalization of 4.9 billion yuan in 2023, covering for the first time and giving an "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
The development of the new energy vehicle industry is not as expected; the commercial vehicle and off-road recovery is not as expected; the upstream cost is higher than expected; the electric drive gear business is not as good as expected
