The company is a state-owned high-tech enterprise focusing on "smart power + new energy". The company has always focused on the power service track since its inception. In 2020, in order to optimize the allocation of resources, the company stripped off the lithium diaphragm business and focused on the energy storage business. At present, the company has four R & D bases, which are located in Luoyang, Henan, Changchun, Jilin, Nanjing, Jiangsu and Hangzhou, Zhejiang. The company's products are widely distributed all over the country. On the financial side, the company's profit improved after stripping off the lithium diaphragm, with a net profit of 13 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, an increase of 17.83% over the same period last year. The company's ownership structure is stable, and it is the only listed company platform under the government of the old city of Luoyang. The largest shareholder is Luoyang Gudu Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the actual control is the people's Government of the old city of Luoyang.
Smart grid, charging piles, energy storage three-wheel drive companies grow.
1) Smart grid is the focus of new power system construction, and the company's products are expected to benefit. The power instability caused by the increase in the proportion of new energy promotes the intelligent upgrading of the power grid. The company's smart grid equipment business mainly includes intelligent electrical switchgear and intelligent meter / electricity information collection system, which is leading in the northeast region. The company has introduced advanced processing and inspection equipment from Germany, Italy and other countries, and gradually formed a large-scale and intensive production. During the 14th five-year Plan period, smart grid business is expected to grow steadily with grid investment.
2) the general trend of new energy vehicles has led to a rapid increase in the demand for charging piles. The "double carbon" top design promotes the rapid growth of sales and ownership of electric vehicles in China, and the demand for charging piles goes up. We estimate that the number of charging piles will reach 16.73 million in 2025 and the CAGR will be 59% in 2021-2025. Nanjing Nengrui, a subsidiary of the company, is responsible for charging pile business, including charging pile manufacturing and operation, charging pile product system is mature, taking into account the charging and power exchange business. The company's charging pile business is expected to take advantage of the wave of new energy vehicles, and the volume of the business will gradually improve.
3) the new energy storage gold track is starting, and the company's new energy storage business is taking advantage of the wind. Energy storage has a rigid demand in the new power system. At present, the golden track is starting, and there is a broad space for the future. We estimate that the new installed capacity of energy storage in China in 2023 will be 14.21GWC27.31GWhRory. In 2025, the new installed capacity will be 52.15GWPX 106.49GWhJournal. In 21-25, the CAGR will be 118%. The company actively arranges the energy storage business: in terms of temperature control and heat management, the company has completed the research and development of the first vertical liquid cooling technology in China, which is expected to have significant advantages in heat dissipation performance; in terms of production line, the company has completed the construction of the production line and testing environment of the energy storage system, which can realize the annual production of 500MWh energy storage products. In terms of orders, the company and Zhejiang Jin Ruiguan Energy Technology Co., Ltd. jointly developed the Ningbo distributed energy storage market, and the two sides have signed a 60 million yuan lithium battery energy storage system procurement framework contract, of which 8.6MWh energy storage system is being implemented. The company recently announced a number of project cooperation contracts, including the procurement of energy storage systems, contracting 4 EPC projects, which were delivered in the second and third quarters of 23. The energy storage business is expected to inject growth momentum into the company and open up the growth space.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's smart grid business is steadily upward with the construction of the new power system, the charging pile business is growing steadily on the new energy vehicle Dongfeng, and the company is actively laying out the energy storage business to open up the growth space. We predict that the overall operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 11.81,19.47 and 2.604 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9%, 64.9% and 33.8% over the same period last year. 2022-2024 net profit will be 0.39,1.54 and 247 million yuan, an increase of 23.4%, 295.9% and 59.9% respectively over the same period last year. The PE corresponding to the current stock price in 2022-2024 is twice as much as that in 113-28-18. For the first time, we give a "buy" rating.
Risk factors: repeated epidemic situation, lower-than-expected demand for new energy vehicles, deteriorating competition, rising prices of raw materials, and so on.
