The impact of the epidemic has shifted from epidemic prevention and control to the peak of infection. it is expected that with the epidemic in various cities gradually over the peak, residents' willingness to travel will increase rapidly, and the travel economy will enter the fast lane of repair. With reference to the recovery of overseas consumption and the level of passenger flow recovery, passenger flow restoration will dominate the pace of consumption recovery in the coming period of time. It is recommended to pay attention to the service industries where the passenger flow level is at the bottom at this stage and will benefit from the recovery of travel demand, such as tourism, tax exemption, hotels, catering and so on.

▍Xi Shi Dongjian, from the pace of overseas consumption recovery to see the industry recovery process and the final level of passenger flow, travel consumption is one of the categories with the greatest resilience of recovery.

The economy of overseas travel picks upGoogle LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports" data (quoted from OurWorldinData) show that in October 2022, the passenger flow of retail and entertainment projects visited by most developed countries returned to close to the benchmark level, while the passenger flow of retail and entertainment projects visited by South America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia even exceeded the benchmark by more than 25%. The passenger flow level of travel such as parks exceeded the benchmark by more than 25%.

Learn from the rhythm of recovery:On the whole, most of the local economies have shown a trend of recovery after the recent adjustment of epidemic prevention policy in China, mainly benefiting from policy stimulus and endogenous improvement, among which affected by travel willingness, the speed and degree of recovery of consumption in commodity sales is significantly higher than that in service consumption.

▍According to the urban data group, the epidemic situation in China is gradually over the peak, travel demand repair, and pay attention to the investment opportunities in the regional service industry.

The epidemic in key cities has reached its peak, and travel consumption is expected to pick up gradually in 2023.According to the daily infection forecast of the city data group, the first round of epidemic in cities such as Beijing and Chengdu is coming to an end, and the infection process in cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is expected to be about 63%, 67% and 74%. We expect the infection process in Hangzhou, Suzhou, Changsha and other cities to be about 67%, 71% and 82%. With the epidemic situation in first-tier and quasi-first-tier cities gradually over the peak, residents' travel demand is expected to be released, and travel consumption is gradually picking up.

Travel in the city:The resumption of work in the 51st week of 2022 will drive urban residents to travel, and urban travel is expected to rebound after the end of the epidemic.In the first-tier cities, after the recent adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the passenger flow in Guangzhou Metro rebounded significantly in the 51st week of 2022, which was 1.6 times higher than the previous low value. The epidemic in Beijing was over the peak, and the passenger flow rose steadily on December 25th, 2022. The MA7 congestion index was about 1.27, the same as that in Shenzhen, higher than 1.22 in Shanghai and 1.217 in Guangzhou. In other cities, subway passenger flow fell to 50% of the frontier value on December 23, 2022, subway passenger flow in quasi-first-tier cities showed signs of recovery, and congestion index also showed a rebound trend.

Intercity travel:Travel in low-line cities recovered significantly in the 51st week of 2022, with Beijing taking the lead in the recovery of first-tier cities.In first-tier cities, intercity travel in Beijing has returned to about 60% in the same period in 2021. Shanghai and Guangzhou have been seriously affected by the epidemic and are still in a downward trend, returning to about 77% and 68% respectively in the same period in 2021. The number of international flights and flights in key cities showed an upward trend, and the first batch of "Yangkang" people started long-distance travel.

• Travel in HainanIn the 49th / 50th Maple week, the total inbound and outbound movements of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan Airport were 2967max 4398max 3959, with a month-on-week change of 53%, 48% and 10%. The recent peak of passenger flow into the island is about 62.5% of the annual peak. The resumption of flights and passenger flow is expected to promote the continuous repair of the performance of the tourism and tax-free industries.

• Travel between Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai:Affected by the epidemic, the activity of short-term inter-city travel in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has decreased. The inter-city travel index in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region decreased significantly. At the 51st week, the intra-city travel index was about 60% of the previous peak, while the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai regional emigration / immigration index decreased by 14% and 32%, respectively.

• Travel in tourist destinationsUrban residents who have passed the peak of the epidemic have gradually resumed intercity travel. We predict that the travel radius of inbound tourists in Sanya and Changbai Mountain (located in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture) has increased significantly, and the proportion of long-distance tourists has increased. The travel radius of inbound tourists in week 51 of Sanya increased by 108.5% compared with that of week 48, and long-distance tourists gathered in Sanya.

▍Investment advice:

The impact of the epidemic has shifted from epidemic prevention and control to the peak of infection. it is expected that with the epidemic in various cities gradually over the peak, residents' willingness to travel will increase rapidly, and the travel economy will enter the fast lane of repair. With reference to the recovery of overseas consumption and the level of passenger flow recovery, passenger flow restoration will dominate the pace of consumption recovery in the coming period of time. It is recommended to pay attention to the service industries where the passenger flow level is at the bottom at this stage and will benefit from the recovery of travel demand, such as tourism, tax exemption, hotels, catering and so on.

▍Risk Tips:

The rapid spread of the epidemic has led to the reduction of short-term travel willingness, the decline of residents' spending power, the deviation of third-party data sources, and the search index does not represent the wishes of all consumers.