The industry pattern of brazing aluminum heat transfer materials is stable and the barrier to entry is high. There are many types of aluminum rolled products, which have the characteristics of highly customized, so it presents a competitive situation of differentiation among leading enterprises in various subdivision fields. As one of the subdivided categories of aluminum rolled products, brazed aluminum heat transfer materials have high requirements for the management and operation of production enterprises, at the same time, there are large capital barriers and customer certification barriers, the competition pattern of the industry is stable, and there are few new entrants.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is increasing rapidly, and the industry will maintain a tight situation of supply and demand in the next few years. 2021 the supply and demand of the industry are about 1.5 million tons and 1.6 million tons respectively, and the overall supply and demand pattern is tight. As the demand for aluminum heat transfer materials of new energy vehicles is 10-15KG/ higher than that of traditional vehicles, with the rapid increase of the permeability of new energy vehicles, the demand for brazed aluminum heat transfer materials will continue to grow. However, due to the limitations of equipment procurement, installation and commissioning and other reasons, the construction cycle of new projects in the industry usually takes about 3 years. Judging from the production expansion plans of the leading enterprises, the industry has not put into production a large amount of new capacity before 2025, and it is expected that the industry will maintain a tight situation of supply and demand in the next few years.
In the field of new energy vehicles, the company is expected to fully benefit from the rapid growth of demand in the industry. The company is one of the enterprises with the largest production capacity of brazing aluminum heat transfer materials in China. since 2017, the company has actively cooperated with downstream customers to improve the production line under the uncertain prospect of the domestic new energy vehicle market. and in the early stage engaged in new energy vehicle heat exchange system research enterprise front-end research and development, established a long-term and in-depth cooperation relationship, in the field of new energy vehicles customer base is deep. At present, the company has directly or indirectly supplied bulk goods to BYD, Tesla, Inc., Great Wall, Ningde Times and other enterprises, and is expected to become the biggest beneficiary in the current cycle of rapid growth of aluminum heat transfer materials demand for new energy vehicles.
The new energy business is growing rapidly, and the company's profits are expected to grow rapidly as production capacity fully releases economies of scale. Since the beginning of 2022, the company has signed orders or cooperation agreements with ONEGENE, VALEO, Ningde Times and other customers to provide sufficient protection for the company's revenue and profit growth. At the same time, the 100000 tons of recycled aluminum project in cooperation with Jiangxi Yueda Aluminum Industry is expected to further reduce the company's production costs. In the future, under the background of tight supply and demand in the industry, with the full release of production capacity and the improvement of economies of scale, the company's profits are expected to grow rapidly.
Profit forecast: the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 is estimated to be RMB 1.80,000,000, which is + 342.23%, 195.02%, 25.71%, corresponding to EPS 0.22, 0.64, and 0.81 yuan, corresponding to the previous share price PE36.51/12.37/9.84 times, covering for the first time, and giving the company an "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected; market competition intensifies; aluminum price fluctuates sharply.