On December 26th, the National Health Commission issued a circular on the implementation of the overall plan of "Class B Management" for novel coronavirus infection, which mentioned that the management of personnel exchanges between China and foreign countries should be optimized, and the policy of nucleic acid testing and isolation after entry should be abolished. Those who come to China for nucleic acid testing 48 hours before departure, whose health declaration is normal and whose routine quarantine at the customs port is not abnormal can enter the society. Abolish the "five ones" and occupancy restrictions and other international passenger flight quantity control measures.

With the optimization of the domestic epidemic prevention policy, the entry and exit policy has also been relaxed, which will provide more convenience for cross-border personnel, which also means that outbound travel of Chinese citizens is expected to further resume.So which industries will be the first to recover under the continuous relaxation of epidemic prevention policy? To what extent has it been repaired so far?

Travel agencies, OTA

As we all know, the "closure" policy of the epidemic in the past two years has dealt a devastating blow to the integrated tourism services section, which takes outbound tourism as the main source of income. According to the Annual report on the Development of China's outbound Tourism (2022-2023), the number of outbound tourists in China has decreased by 400 million from 2020 to 2022. After the suspension of outbound tourism business, the performance of relevant tourism enterprises has been seriously damaged.

Among themPublic belief tourismThe proportion of income from entry and exit business reached about 90% by 2019 and only 29% in 22 years. Affected by the epidemic in 2022 and 2021, entry and exit income was-89% and-80% compared with the same period last year, and gross profit was negative for two consecutive years (2021-3.87 million, 2020-320 million).

However, with the liberalization of the immigration policy, the worst days of the tourism industry may be over, and tourism demand is expected to rebound after opening up.According to Trip.com, within half an hour of the release of the plan, the search volume of popular overseas destinations on the platform soared 10-fold compared with the same period last year. Outbound air tickets and overseas hotel searches have reached their peak in three years (the instantaneous search volume of international air tickets on the whole platform has increased by 850%, and the search volume related to outbound and group tour products for the Spring Festival has soared by 6 times).

The study of Zhi Zhi believes that this timeThe relaxation of immigration policy will also bring clear performance repair to OTA platforms like Trip.com.. In fact, internationalization was an important strategic direction for Trip.com before the epidemic. Trip.com 's international income accounted for more than 35% in 2019, of which outbound business accounted for about 25% (about 8.9 billion yuan).With the opening of epidemic control in Europe, the United States and parts of the Asia-Pacific region, it has been reflected in the rebound in international business.Among them, Europe and the United States have been opened one after another in the second half of last year, and sky scanner, which is mainly in Europe and the United States, recovered and improved in the first half of the year. This year, it is driven by the opening up of the Asia-Pacific region.Overseas brands have basically returned to the income level of about 90% in 19 years in the third quarter, and the performance is expected to be further repaired with the liberalization of China's entry and exit.

In addition to returning overseas business to its normal growth track, Trip.com is also developing new directions during the epidemic, such as short trips and content platforms, or becoming a new point of business growth after the epidemic.Although the proportion of short-distance business before the epidemic is small, the demand for short-distance travel has become an important support for tourism recovery during the epidemic, and the proportion of short-distance travel has increased from 30% to 40% to more than 50%. In addition, after the epidemic, consumers may be willing to travel but do not know where to goTrip.com is also slowly changing from a pure trading platform to a content plus trading platform, by building content channels such as live streaming, lists, and communities to enhance the transformation and stickiness of users, so as to achieve a closed loop from trading to content in a longer period of time.

Summary:According to the study of wisdom,With the opening of entry and exit, the bottom of the policy has passed.At the same time, through the user's search data, we can also seeWith the improvement of the travel environment in Fengdan, people's enthusiasm for long-distance travel will not diminish. Travel agencies and OTA, which are more affected by the epidemic, may usher in a rebound in performance and a return to profitability.Among them, Trip.com is expected to have a good business performance after getting back on track in overseas business, as well as the new help of short trips and content platform.

But it's important to note thatThe full recovery of entry and exit will take time.With reference to the open markets, such as Japan and South Korea, they announced that they would open cross-border travel in the middle of the year, but so far the number of people entering and leaving the country has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level. local consumption is still dominated by restaurants and hotels, and then to long-distance, entry and exit will be slower. In addition, we also observe that at present, more than 80% of the orders booked by Trip.com Hotel come from the same day, and less than 4% of the orders over the week.The risk of cancellation is also relatively high at present. In short, travel will not be achieved overnight, or the recovery of travel will not be more obvious until the whole epidemic becomes more normal and consumers have a better mentality of infection.

Exempt from tax

See Zhi has been in "cancel the landing health code, avoid can usher in the performance explosion?" In this article, it is analyzed in detail that with the optimization of epidemic prevention policy at the beginning of the month, consumption has begun to show signs of recovery, generally speaking, the uncertainty of the epidemic situation has been eliminated, and the follow-up should focus on the intensity of recovery.This paper will focus on the analysis of the current recovery of consumption and the impact of the open entry and exit policy on tax exemption.

First of all, we observed that last week (December 19-December 25)The passenger flow of Hainan Airlines has been warming up, and the passenger flow of Sanya has maintained a high growth rate, returning to nearly 80% of the pre-epidemic level.The tourists are mainly the first batch of "Yangkang" tourists from Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai.

Hainan Airport: 304000 passengers,-8.9% month-on-month, returning to 65.7% in the same period in 19 years.

Haikou Airport: 130000 passengers,-19.4% month-on-month, returning to 54.5% in the same period in 19 years.

Sanya Airport: 166000 passengers, + 0.8% month-on-month, returning to 78.3% in the same period in 19 years.

In addition, duty-free sales on outlying islands also showed a clear pick-up trend.From December 13 to 19, the duty-free sales of Hainan outlying islands exceeded 100 million yuan for seven consecutive days, and the sales of four duty-free stores on outlying islands in Sanya reached 438 million yuan in seven days. Specifically, the sales figures for December were 570 million in the first week of December, 830 million in the second week and 1.1 billion in the third week.

In terms of average daily sales, the average one-day sales of concession and exemption last year was 80 million-85 million, and dropped to 45 million-50 million in August and September this year when the epidemic was most stringent. According to the above sales data, the daily sales of China exemption was about 80 million in the first week of December, more than 100 million in the second week, and about 150 million in the third week.It has reached about 80% of that in the same period last year, and the growth rate after the recovery of the epidemic is better than expected.

The liberalization of entry and exit will once again be conducive to the resumption of duty-free shop business, of which the airport duty-free shop is expected to take the lead to benefit.What is noteworthy is that Sanya Phoenix International Airport, which is jointly owned by China exemption and Hainan Airport, posted a message on its website on the 25th: since the release of the "New Ten articles" epidemic prevention and control optimization measures, the Sanya aviation tourism market has rebounded rapidly. in order to meet the duty-free shopping needs of more passengersThe duty-free business of Sanya airport is upgraded again.

The upgrading of the duty-free business of Sanya Phoenix Airport, on the one hand, has expanded the operation scale to absorb the incremental consumer flow brought about by the rapid development of Hainan duty-free market; on the other hand, it has introduced many high-end luxury brands such as boutiques, watches, drinks and so on.Customer unit price is higher, and there will be some support for gross profit margin.In addition, the construction of Terminal T3 of Sanya Phoenix Airport is expected to start in 23, according to the design of 2700-30 million passenger support capacity, after the construction is completed.Passenger throughput will be further improved.

Judging from the overall tax exemption in Hainan next year, under the influence of eliminating the epidemic, the tax-free sales of tourism in Hainan have increased significantly.The expectation of tax exemption for Hainan outlying islands as a whole next year is about 100 billion, with emphasis on the two new increments of the new seaport and Wangfujing.

Among them, we have analyzed the new harbour project in detail in the last article. The opening rate at the end of October this year was about 40%. It is expected to reach 60% before the Spring Festival this year, and 90% in the second half of next year. Another Wangfujing project is another Wanning tax-free project, in addition to Haikou and Sanya, which is expected to open in January 23. For Wangfujing, the tax-free business is a process from 0 to 1. It will also bring a new share to Hainan's outlying island duty-free business.

However, there are also some worried voices in the market. Will the duty-free shopping in Japan and South Korea have a great impact on the domestic tax exemption after the entry and exit is opened?

Jian Zhi research believes that duty-free shops in Japan and South Korea have indeed developed earlier than in China, and also have a certain price advantage. It is about 10% cheaper to import from Han to China than to purchase goods from it, and the purchase of goods from brands is about 5-10 points higher than that of Han from brands.

However, we can see that the operating pressure of Han exemption is also on the rise. The retail revenue of 3Q22 Silla tourism is + 40% compared with the same period last year, while the operating profit has dropped sharply by 97%. In addition, the rent waiver for duty-free shops at Incheon Airport will end at the end of the year. Rakuten has issued voluntary retirement to employees for the first time since its establishment to save costs.

On the whole, although Han JieIt does have a certain price advantage, but the operating pressure is also on the rise, the impact on the domestic tax exemption will not be too great, the market does not need to worry too much.