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国改再添一例!“三年行动”收官,后续还有哪些新预期?

National reform adds another example! When “Operation Three Years” comes to an end, what new expectations are there in the future?

Wallstreet News ·  Dec 27, 2022 14:19

Towards the end of the year, a new case has been added to the national reform.

Recently, the military industrial stock Zhongzhi shares announced that it intends to issue shares to buy 100% equity in Changfei Group and 100% equity in Hafei Group and raise supporting funds from AVIC Science and Technology Industry. The transaction constitutes a major asset restructuring.

If the reorganization is completed, the company will become the largest military and civilian helicopter parts manufacturing and final assembly platform in China, and the asset scale will be greatly expanded. further consolidate the company's position as the helicopter industry manufacturing base with the largest scale, the highest output value and the most complete product range in China.

The three-year operation has reached its final stage.

In fact, the restructuring of Zhongzhi shares is also one of the major actions of state reform. This year marks the end of the "three-year action" for the reform of state-owned enterprises. Weng Jieming, deputy director of the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission, previously said that the completion rate of the central enterprise and local reform three-year action desk accounts has exceeded 98%.

Citic Construction Investment said that at present, the military industrial reform continues to be implemented, and asset integration is expected to continue to accelerate, mainly in the form of equity transfer, absorption merger and asset injection and divestiture. There are temporary difficulties in the restructuring of institutions, and the securitization of state-owned assets mainly adopts the asset reorganization of group enterprises under the central military enterprises and the injection of operational assets into military scientific research institutes. Judging from the current policy guidelines and existing cases, the military industry central state-owned enterprises are integrating assets in various forms, such as absorption and merger, divestiture and injection, in order to build a number of flagship military industry central state-owned enterprises.

It is expected that the future military reform may take the existing listed companies as the core, through asset injection and equity incentives, the two combine with each other in order to build flagship listed companies.

What are the highlights of the follow-up national reform?

Caitong Securities said that standing at the current time, the three major changes in the future state reform are worthy of attention, namely: the improvement of the status of central enterprises in strategic emerging industries, a reasonable revaluation of "China's advantages", and attention to the catalysis of state reform policies in the next stage. Specifically:

1. More than half of the central enterprise groups are in strategic emerging industries

In Chapter 9 of the 14th five-year Plan, 8 strategic emerging industries related to key technologies / projects are divided, and 56 of the 98 central enterprise groups are related to them. Among them, the number of central enterprise groups with new materials and high-end equipment is relatively high. The central enterprise groups of 42 traditional industries are mainly concentrated in the areas of construction and transportation.

Caitong Securities said that combined with the main line of economic development, among the strategic emerging industry state-owned enterprises, the "three new" state-owned enterprises represented by new materials, new manufacturing and new software are worthy of attention.

2. Reasonable revaluation of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises

Caitong Securities believes that although it has been the main battlefield for listed companies of private enterprises in the past decade, the "qualitative change" brought about by the reform of state-owned enterprises is also gradually fermenting, a remarkable feature is that the dividend yield of state-owned enterprises is increasing year by year.

It said that the supply-side reform has a significant effect on the leverage reduction of central and state-owned enterprises, with weak domestic demand and wide range of private enterprises.

Under the background of credit hindrance, central enterprises may be the main force to increase leverage at present. Therefore, in the context of this round of broad credit in the manufacturing industry, some large state-owned enterprises relative to the immune terminal boom, capital expenditure and business cycle upward certainty is stronger.

3. Pay attention to the catalysis of national reform policy in the next stage.

Caitong Securities pointed out that next year will be the "ten-year period" of this round of state-owned enterprise reform, and the year is not only a summary of the "three-year action", but also the acceptance of the medium-and long-term achievements of this round of state-owned enterprise reform that has been going on for 10 years.

Which central state-owned enterprises are worthy of attention?

According to Caitong Securities, the following five clues are worth watching:

Clue one: the professional integration of central enterprises will become the core thread of the reform of state-owned enterprises, paying attention to the "long-chain" enterprises in strategic emerging industries.

Clue 2: with regard to the central enterprises of undervalued and high dividend countries, the following targets are sorted out from the three dimensions of "dividend willingness, dividend ability and valuation level":

Clue 3: the state-owned listing platform that benefits from the performance improvement brought about by equity incentivesIt is screened from three dimensions: (1) the incentive target is the first kind of restricted stock; (2) the award time is 2021; (3) the consistent expected profit of Wind is compared, and the consistent expected performance of 23 years is higher than that of 22 years, that is, the company with continuous profit improvement.

Clue 4: the transformation of "double carbon" brings about the renewal of industrial layout and the improvement of valuation.Under the background that the reform of state-owned enterprises will further move towards the goal of "double carbon", relevant state-owned enterprises with large amounts of cash and resources are expected to give priority to the distribution of emerging industries and will also benefit from higher valuations brought about by the transformation.

Clue 5: further improve the securitization rate through asset injection or restructuringIncluding strong expectation of asset injection, high possibility of asset restructuring, military industry, electric power and other industries: at present, the asset securitization rate of military industrial groups is low, and there is much room for improvement.

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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