Medicine and animal protection two-wheel drive, rapid growth in performance. Guobang Medicine covers medicine and animal health care. The main products of pharmaceutical plate are azithromycin, clarithromycin, ciprofloxacin, sodium borohydride, potassium borohydride, etc.; the main products of animal protection plate are enrofloxacin and florfenicol, the new product doxycycline has great market potential. With the continuous improvement of the market share of pharmaceutical products, the income scale of pharmaceutical sector has increased from 2.18 billion yuan in 2017 to 2.96 billion yuan in 2021, with an annual compound growth rate of 8%. With the orderly production of fund-raising projects and the gradual enrichment of the product matrix, the state pharmaceutical animal protection plate has achieved rapid growth, from 712 million yuan in 2017 to 1.533 billion yuan in 2021, with an annual compound growth rate of 52.36%.
The market demand for antibiotics is increasing, and the export volume of macrolides is dominant. In recent years, affected by multiple factors such as investment in R & D in the field of antibiotics, the epidemic situation of COVID-19 and the increasing incidence of chronic diseases, the global antibiotic market has maintained an upward trend and is expected to reach US $55.4 billion in 2027. Under the background of the gradual expansion of the antibiotic market at home and abroad, the sales of Guobang pharmaceutical macrolide products have increased steadily, and the export competitive advantage is obvious. The export volume of azithromycin API, clarithromycin API and ciprofloxacin API from 2017 to 2019 are in the forefront of our country.
The fund-raising projects in the field of animal protection are progressing smoothly, and new varieties have been released one after another. The first phase of animal protection drug doxycycline has been successfully completed and successfully trial-produced, opening large-scale market sales, and is expected to become another major product of the company in the future; the characteristic pharmaceutical API project continues to advance, and the gammycin project is put into operation, further enriching the company's product matrix; florfenicol industry chain is expected to be further extended, and the market share is gradually increased.
The R & D cost is increasing, and the R & D team is gradually expanding. The company's R & D investment has increased steadily, from 95 million yuan in 2017 to 155 million yuan in 2021. The cumulative R & D expenditure in the first three quarters of 2022 has reached 135 million yuan, an increase of 27.16% over the same period last year, and the R & D expenditure rate is 3.28%, which is relatively stable. The company's R & D team has gradually expanded, reaching 446 in 2021, accounting for around 14% of the total number of employees. Guobang pharmaceutical research and development achievements are gratifying, by the end of the second quarter, the company has been granted a total of 90 patents, including 81 invention patents.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company's operating income to be 55.69,65.32 and 7.616 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, an increase of 23.6%, 17.3% and 16.6% respectively over the same period last year, and its net profit is 9.33,11.86 and 1.442 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 32.1%, 27.1% and 21.7% over the same period last year, and the price-earnings ratio of the corresponding company is 15.59,12.26,10.08 times. Consider that the company's fund-raising projects in the field of animal protection will be gradually put into production, covering them for the first time and giving them a "buy" rating.
Stock price catalyst: COVID-19 epidemic gradually control, downstream aquaculture industry demand rebounded.
Risk factors: environmental protection risk, main raw material price fluctuation risk, foreign exchange fluctuation risk.
