Main points of investment
The basic plate of antibiotic intermediates is stable, and the elastic release of synthetic biology performance is imminent: Chuanning Biology is mainly engaged in the research, development and production of fermentation intermediates. It is one of the enterprises with leading scale, complete product types and advanced production technology in the field of antibiotic intermediates. The company has abundant production capacity, and has obvious advantages in fermentation technology, bacterial residue treatment, cost and so on. Antibiotic intermediate business is expected to provide a stable basic plate. The business of synthetic biology provides performance flexibility. after the establishment of Shanghai Research Institute, the company has increased investment in the field of synthetic biology, red myrrh alcohol and other pipelines will be landed soon, at least 9 projects are planned in the next 3 years, and the pipeline products are rich. We expect the company's homing net profit CAGR to reach 25% in 2022-2024.
The company has leading advantages in cost, technology and environmental protection, which is a strong support for long-term development: the company deeply ploughs the fermentation field, creates 500 cubic meters of fermentors, greatly improves the output and efficiency of a single batch, and has made achievements in the field of recycling treatment and fertilizer production of bacterial residue. In terms of cost, the company is located in Yili, and the cost in raw materials, energy, labor and geography is significantly lower than that in the mainland, and the 200000 mu corn field project cooperated with the Yili government is about to be launched, which will further reduce the company's cost. The advantage of environmental protection is the cornerstone of fermentation enterprises. through years of research and development and investment, the company has formed a number of independent innovative environmental protection technologies, leading the country in the treatment of three wastes, which can meet the long-term green development plan in the future.
The synthetic biology team is strong, the R & D pipeline is rich, and the project is about to be launched: synthetic biology is the mainstream development direction of fermentation products in the future, with obvious advantages in cost, environmental protection and other aspects, and has achieved mass production applications in medical, chemicals and other directions. According to CB Insights, the global market for synthetic biology is about $5.3 billion in 2019, will reach $18.9 billion in 2024, and CAGR will be about 28.8% in 2019-2024. The company has established the Institute of synthetic Biology in Shanghai, relying on a strong R & D team and four major chassis R & D platforms, there are more than ten project pipelines, and some of them are expected to land in a short period of time. In the future, relying on the advantages in synthetic biology, the company is expected to build a full industrialization chain of synthetic biology.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we estimate that the total revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 418.464 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14%, 14%, 14% and 11%, respectively, and the net profit will be 4.1%, 5.1% and 650 million yuan, respectively. the year-on-year growth rate is 270%, 25%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 27% 2) synthetic biology projects such as red myrrh alcohol will be launched soon; 3) synthetic biology relies on four chassis platforms and the follow-up pipelines are rich; investors are advised to pay active attention to it.
Risk hints: upstream raw material price increase risk, synthetic biology project research and development risk, synthetic biology project sales less than expected risk, market competition risk, core technical personnel loss risk.
