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国联股份(603613):增持回购有序推进 市场信心修复在望

Guolian Co., Ltd. (603613): Increasing holdings and repurchases will promote the restoration of market confidence in an orderly manner

財通證券 ·  Dec 23, 2022 13:56  · Researches

Event 1: Dong Jiangao, a non-actual controller, has increased his holdings for two consecutive days and has reached the lower limit of this plan. According to the company's announcement on December 21, five members of Dong Jiangao, including Tian Tao and Liu Junzhai, increased their holdings by 18400 shares, totaling 1.443 million yuan, accounting for 0.0037% of the current share capital. As of December 21, Liu Quan and Qian Xiaojun, the company's controllers, had increased their holdings by a total of 416000 shares, totaling 39.946 million yuan, accounting for 0.08% of the circulating share capital; Dong Jian Gao had increased his holdings by a total of 50.235 million yuan, accounting for 0.11% of the circulating share capital. Dong Jiangao's overall increase shows confidence in the company's future development and recognition of long-term investment value.

Event 2: increase employee incentive plan investment to achieve long-term development goal matching. The company announced on December 20 that it intends to use 2.4 billion yuan of its own funds to buy back the company's shares for the later implementation of the employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive plan. With the implementation of this plan, the company is expected to improve and improve the incentive mechanism, fully mobilize the enthusiasm of employees, and further strengthen the coordination of interests at all levels of the company.

The marginal improvement of trading factors and the repair of market confidence are in sight. 1) the company's trading volume reached a record high of 1.585 billion on December 20, and the cash selling pressure continued to digest; 2) the company's share price has fallen back to the level at the beginning of the year, and the cost difference caused by the time period continues to narrow, and the new and old main forces are transferred or present; 3) the cumulative market value of Lukutong's shareholding is 2.12 billion yuan, with a shareholding ratio of 5.4%, an increase of 1.64pct compared with the low on November 29.

The addition of high-quality funds promotes the marginal improvement of the transaction structure, and the future company increases its holdings and buybacks in an orderly manner, and the valuation repair is worth looking forward to.

The process of GDR is smooth, and diversified financing channels provide solid support for high long-term performance. The company's GDR has been approved by the CSRC and is now moving forward in an orderly manner. Diversified financing channels further release operating funds, superimpose the company's strategic layout and stable operating capacity, and the high growth trend is expected to continue in the future. The company's participation in the industry standard-making has been approved, deepening the leading position and policy-driven acceleration. The company's participation in four digital policies has been officially approved, and the standards will promote the landing of the industrial Internet and consolidate the company's leading position; with the introduction of digital economic support policies and the recovery of domestic demand, the market share of many platforms is expected to continue to increase.

Profit forecast: the company's business is stable, the supply chain relationship is sticky, and the leading position of the industry remains unchanged, waiting for the recovery of market confidence. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 724.4 million yuan, with an increase of 94.6%, 71.7%, 61.9%, 11.3%, 19.8 / 3.23 billion, and 95.5%, respectively, with an increase of 75.2%, 63.2%, and the current PE is 3721x13X, maintaining the overhang rating.

Risk tips: industrial product prices fluctuate sharply; the financing process is not as expected; cloud factory production is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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