Main points of investment
Amatton: with Jingao signing a photovoltaic glass sales contract of about 6 billion yuan, the market influence of thin glass is further enhanced. 1) according to the announcement on the evening of December 20, the company and Jingao Technology signed a "strategic cooperation agreement" for the sale of photovoltaic glass, with a total sales volume of 276 million square meters, with an estimated total amount of about 6 billion yuan (including tax, based on the latest average price of photovoltaic glass estimated by PV InfoLink). Average annual sales account for 90% of the company's revenue in 2021. The performance period is from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2025.
2) the product specification of this contract is mainly double glass, containing a certain proportion of float backplane glass, which is conducive to the market promotion of ≤ 2.00mm ultra-thin photovoltaic glass products and enhance the company's market influence and core competitiveness in the thin glass field.
Photovoltaic glass: sign a 7.4 billion 1.6mm ultra-thin glass order with Trina Solar; lead the industry into the 1.6mm era 1) the company previously signed a 7.4 billion 1.6mm ultra-thin photovoltaic glass order with Trina Solar and worked closely with Longji, Jingao and Tesla, Inc.. Prior to the announcement, the company signed a "strategic cooperation agreement" with Trina Solar for ultra-thin photovoltaic glass, with a total sales volume of 340 million square meters, with an estimated total amount of about 7.4 billion yuan (including tax, calculated according to the current average price of 2.0mm glass). It accounts for 364% of the company's operating income in 2021. The performance period is from June 1, 2022 to December 31, 2025.
2) demand side: distributed demand exceeded expectations, pushing up 1.6 ultra-thin glass demand. By working with Trina Solar's framework, Armarton and Trina will further realize the future market expansion strategy of new components (components using 1.6mm glass) and gain market share. According to IEA statistics, the global distributed photovoltaic installation will be about 75GW in 2021, accounting for more than 40%. Distributed demand exceeded expectations.
3) supply side: the company 1.6 ultra-thin glass promotion is smooth. In addition to Trina Solar, the company is a qualified supplier of Tesla, Inc. solar tiles and signed a cooperation framework agreement with Longji to develop the application of ultra-thin lightweight anti-glare glass for "Longding" BIPV in photovoltaic building integration project. At the same time, cooperation with other mainstream component manufacturers on 1.6 mm ultra-thin glass is also being actively promoted.
4) Industry trend: photovoltaic glass is developing towards "lightweight". Compared with the current mainstream 2.0mm, 1.6mm photovoltaic glass is 20% thinner, has obvious advantages in weight and cost, is more in line with the BIPV scenario, and is of great significance for the photovoltaic industry to "reduce cost and increase efficiency". The company is a leader in ultra-thin photovoltaic glass and is one of the manufacturers of ultra-thin photovoltaic glass rarely able to mass produce 1.6mm in the whole market.
Electronic glass: set up Amatton HD display subsidiary, integrated layout, provide customers with "one-stop" solution the company plans to set up 100 million yuan in Hubei Shiyan, a wholly-owned subsidiary Armaton HD display, implement the R & D, production and sales of high-end electronic glass products and raw materials, provide customers with "one-stop" solutions, and enhance the company's core competitiveness in the field of consumer electronics.
Investment advice: ultra-thin photovoltaic glass leader, BIPV, electronic glass open growth space is expected to return to the company in 2022-2024 net profit of 0.9x15,000,000 yuan, an increase of 63% over the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 63%, 72% and 56%, corresponding to PE of 66-38-25. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of photovoltaic glass overcapacity; the injection of original assets is not as expected; the promotion of new products is not as expected.