APL-1202 is expected to meet the unmet demand for clinical treatment of bladder cancer and become the first oral drug for NMIBC on the market in the world. At present, the drug treatment of bladder cancer is mainly chemotherapy / BCG infusion, and the treatment process is painful. APL-1202 through oral administration has greatly improved the treatment experience and compliance of patients. In 2020, the number of NMIBC patients in China reached 65000, the market space is sufficient, and there are no oral targeted drugs on the market, so the competition pattern is good.
APL-1702 is expected to provide new treatment options for patients with HSIL. Photodynamic therapy has the advantages of convenient administration and absorption, less environmental restriction and good patient compliance. At present, HSIL is mainly treated by surgery, and the traditional surgical treatment is mainly circular electroresection of the cervix and conical resection with cold knife, which has the risk of bleeding, infection, cervical organ injury, premature delivery, abortion and so on. In comparison, the non-operative treatment of APL-1702 can effectively protect the cervical function of patients and has significant advantages in safety. In 2020, the number of HSIL infected patients in China reached 2.1 million. The patient population is huge and the market potential is huge.
Profit forecasting and investment rating: the company builds a superior product portfolio covering bladder cancer diagnosis, treatment and follow-up to address unmet clinical needs and provide full-cycle solutions for doctors and patients.
At the same time, the company has laid out products including disposable soft cystoscopy (APLD-2101) and developer drugs (APL-1706), covering cystoscopy and pathological biopsy in the diagnostic stage, transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) in the treatment stage and cystoscopy in the follow-up stage. The superior product combination helps to enhance the stickiness of doctors and reduce the pain of patients, and help the company to commercialize its products smoothly. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 251 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding net profit will be-2.60 Company. it will be covered for the first time and the company will be given an "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: core product commercialization is less than expected risk; APL-1202, APL-1702 product research and development risk; industry competition aggravates risk.