Recommendation logic: 1) Deep binding Schneider: the sales volume of stamping plus sheet metal purchased by Schneider from the company accounts for 5.4%, ranking second among similar customers. Schneider plans to integrate 80% of its business into core suppliers in the future. the company's share of stamping and sheet metal in Schneider is expected to increase to 7.7% 9.7%. 2) benefit from Toyota's electrification transformation: the company's sales to Toyota account for more than 65% of its automobile business. Toyota's three major new energy vehicle projects have been put into production one after another, with a total production capacity of 600000 vehicles per year. The company has obtained Toyota 032D, 030D and other new model orders, which will fully benefit from Toyota's electrification transformation. 3) layout energy storage waiting to blossom: the company plans to invest 1.5 billion yuan to build 2GWh energy storage project, and the income is expected to reach 3 billion yuan after reaching production.
Electrical business is deeply bound to Schneider. Schneider is the largest customer in the company's electrical business, accounting for 87.4% of the company's electrical business revenue in 2021, accounting for 41.7% of the total revenue. The company is deeply bound to Schneider, and its revenue has grown rapidly since it entered Schneider's global core supplier series in 2016. in the next few years, Schneider plans to centralize 80% of its materials (a total of about 2 billion yuan) to global strategic suppliers for procurement, the company will further benefit.
The automotive business is deeply tied to Toyota. Toyota is the largest end customer in the automotive business, accounting for more than 65% of the company's automotive business revenue and more than 20% of the company's total revenue. The company continues to expand cooperation with Toyota in the field of new energy vehicles, and has obtained 36 new variety orders for Toyota 030D and 031D new energy models, Toyota 27PL and Toyota and BYD cooperation 290D new energy models a total of 8 new variety orders. In the future, it will fully benefit from Toyota's active electric transformation.
Actively layout energy storage and create new growth points. There is a broad space for electrochemical energy storage on the user side. In 2025, it is expected that China will increase its electrochemical energy storage by 3.4 GW, with a compound growth rate of 66% in 21-25 years. The company actively arranges the electrochemical energy storage on the user side, providing household and industrial and commercial energy storage customers with energy storage product system solutions that integrate lithium battery PACK, battery management system BMS, energy storage converter PCS, energy management system EMS and cabinet manufacturing. In terms of production, Zhejiang Jinrong as the main base to build 2GWh battery energy storage products (except the battery) the whole industry chain product production base The sales of the company's energy storage products have a synergistic effect with some of the existing electrical customers, and the company will independently increase market expansion efforts. We expect that after the energy storage project is put into production, it is expected to become an important growth point of the company.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.70,1.12,2.11 yuan respectively, and the net profit of homing will maintain a compound growth rate of 56.5% in the next three years, giving the company a valuation of 25 times in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 28.00 yuan, and a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: raw material prices may fluctuate sharply; major customer Schneider or Toyota project expansion is not as expected; energy storage business development is not as expected; exchange rate fluctuation risk.
