Since the 1990s, the fourth strategy of expanding domestic demand has been put forward with the guidance of long-term strategy. On the one hand, highlight the combination with high-quality development, on the other hand, highlight the strategic significance of "super-large-scale market advantage" in the global economy.

We analyze the outline from four angles: the original intention, the long-term direction, the short-term grasp and the system reform.

Abstract

1. The original intention of strategic planning is to effectively deal with external shocks and build an effective way to stabilize economic operation.In the past three times to expand domestic demand has experienced from traditional demand to new demand, from simple stimulus to improve the system of directional changes, this planning is of more strategic significance. In terms of direction, the direction of expanding domestic demand in the future is an important part of high-quality development and transformation. at the same time, the main line of policy will further cooperate with foreign strategy and amplify the influence of China's super-large-scale market advantage in the global economic environment.

2. This strategy mentions three aspects from the point of view of demand:First, it is highly dependent on external sources, and it is difficult to have external alternative sources in the short term, so as to make up for deficiencies in areas where supply is easily cut off; second, to cultivate high-quality brands in areas where demand is not effectively met, including improving the quality of living service industries such as child care and old-age care and health culture; and third, to adapt to the new round of scientific and technological revolution and the general trend of industrial change and create new demand. To promote the organic combination of the two, we must persist in giving full play to the advantages of the super-large-scale market.

3. The Planning mentions the need to strengthen demand-side management.Demand-side reform also appeared in everyone's field of vision at the end of 2020. Expanding high-quality demand essentially includes demand-side innovation and demand-side reform. This expansion of domestic demand puts forward demand-side management, which is essentially both. For the demand-side reform, the main long-term problems to be solved are the adjustment of population and residents' income distribution, the improvement of social security system and the increase of consumption willingness. We believe that the above-mentioned related institutional reforms and policy changes will gradually fall to the ground.

4. Back in front of us, we understand that there are three short-term grasps for specific expansion of consumption and investment:

Areas of consumption:1) promoting traditional consumption: the focus is on clothing, food, housing and transportation, with emphasis on improving quality and shaping brands; 2) developing service consumption: improving quality through supply-side changes in cultural tourism, child care and pension, medical and health care, educational style, etc. 3) cultivate new consumption and promote green and low-carbon consumption: mainly lies in cultivating the new model of "Internet + social service", promoting the development of shared economy model, and supporting the integrated development of online and offline. We will actively develop the low-carbon consumer market and cultivate green consumption behavior.

Areas of investment:1) increase investment in the manufacturing industry, which is the core to promote high-quality development and achieve a manufacturing power; 2) increase deficiencies and promote traditional infrastructure investment, mainly related to transportation, energy, water conservancy, logistics, ecological and environmental protection, social livelihood and other traditional investment construction 3) system layout of new infrastructure, the main track is speeding up the construction of information infrastructure, comprehensive development of integrated infrastructure (industrial Internet, vehicle networking, intelligent transportation, health care, education, etc.), forward-looking layout innovation infrastructure (major scientific devices, super scientific engineering, scarcity verification platform).

5. In addition, the strategy also plans for the reform of the system and elements.These include the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, improving the quality of supply, improving the modern market and circulation system, continuing to deepen reform, common prosperity, and improving security capabilities.

1. The overall understanding of the outline of the Strategic Plan for expanding domestic demand

With regard to the outline of the Strategic Plan for expanding domestic demand (2022-2035), our overall understanding is mainly focused on four aspects: original intention, direction, specific grasp, and institutional reform.

Original intention: the landing of strategic planning is an effective way to effectively deal with external shocks and build a stable economic operation.Liu he mentioned in "organically combining the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform." in the past, we mainly emphasized the expansion of domestic demand three times: first, the Asian financial crisis in 1998, "based on expanding domestic demand and strengthening infrastructure construction." focus on the old infrastructure.

Second, in 2008, in response to the international financial crisis, "the expansion of domestic demand as the fundamental way to maintain growth, the introduction of a large-scale increase in government investment as the main content of the package", still dominated by traditional investment demand.

The third time was the epidemic of COVID-19 in 2020. "focusing on expanding domestic demand, deepening reform and speeding up the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system", we began to focus on the construction of major projects, and the expansion of domestic demand began to attach equal importance to economic transformation.On the whole, in the past, our expansion of domestic demand has experienced changes from traditional demand to new demand, from simple stimulation to improving the system.

Direction:The landing of this strategic plan, on the one hand, still requires the combination of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with supply-side structural reform, which in essence still takes high-quality development as the theme, deepening supply-side structural reform as the main line, and reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force. to meet and create demand with independent and controllable, high-quality and effective supply. On the other hand, the policy purport gradually reflects that China's "super-large-scale market advantage" plays an important strategic role in the global environment.These two points mean that the direction of expanding domestic demand in the future, on the one hand, is an important part of high-quality development and transformation, and on the other hand, the main line of policy will further cooperate with foreign strategies to magnify the influence of super-large-scale market advantages in the global economic environment.

From the point of view of demand, this strategy refers to three major aspects: 1) high external dependence, it is difficult to have external alternative sources in the short term, and make up for deficiencies in areas where supply is easy to be cut off; 2) in areas where demand is not effectively met, cultivate high-quality brands, including improving the quality of living services such as child care and old-age care, health culture, etc.

3) the third is to adapt to the new round of scientific and technological revolution and the general trend of industrial change, and create new demand. To promote the organic combination of the two, we must persist in giving full play to the advantages of the super-large-scale market.

At the same time, it is mentioned that it is necessary to strengthen demand-side management, promote high-quality and full employment, improve the distribution system, improve the social security system, deepen the reform of the investment and financing system, and fully release consumption and investment demand. Demand-side reform also appeared in everyone's field of vision at the end of 2020, expanding high-quality demand essentially includes demand-side innovation and demand-side reform, this strategy of expanding domestic demand has both.

For the demand-side reform, the main long-term problems to be solved are the adjustment of population and residents' income distribution, the improvement of the social security system and the improvement of consumption willingness. We believe that the above-mentioned related institutional reforms and policy changes will gradually fall to the ground.

Going back to the short-term grasp, this strategic plan can be summarized into three main points for consumption and investment respectively:

The expansion of consumption is mainly concentrated in three aspects1) promoting traditional consumption: the focus is on clothing, food, housing and transportation, with emphasis on improving quality and shaping brands; 2) developing service consumption: improving quality through supply-side changes in cultural tourism, child care and pension, medical and health care, educational style, etc.

3) cultivate new consumption and promote green and low-carbon consumption: mainly lies in cultivating the new model of "Internet + social service", promoting the development of shared economy model, and supporting the integrated development of online and offline. We will actively develop the low-carbon consumer market and cultivate green consumption behavior.

The expansion investment is mainly concentrated in three areas: 1) increasing investment in the manufacturing industry, which is the core of promoting high-quality development and realizing a manufacturing power; 2) increasing deficiencies and promoting traditional infrastructure investment, mainly related to transportation, energy, water conservancy, logistics, ecological and environmental protection, social livelihood and other traditional areas of investment and construction.

3) system layout of new infrastructure, the main track is accelerating the construction of information infrastructure, comprehensive development of integrated infrastructure (industrial Internet, vehicle networking, intelligent transportation, health care, education, etc.), forward-looking layout innovation infrastructure (major scientific devices, super scientific engineering, scarcity verification platform)

In addition, the outline of the strategic plan also emphasizes a series of elements of institutional reform. mainly around the main line of supply-side structural reform: 1) the coordinated release of potential between urban and rural areas: new urbanization, rural modernization, optimization of regional economic layout; 2) improving the quality of supply: new industries and new products (self-reliance, strategic emerging industries), upgrading of traditional industries 3) improve the modern market and circulation system: elements, unified large market, logistics 4) continue to deepen reform: improve the consumption promotion system, investment and financing system, optimize the business environment, and give full play to the role of opening to the outside world in promoting domestic demand. 5) Common prosperity: income distribution; increase the labor income of workers; increase the proportion of labor remuneration in the initial distribution of income

6) enhance the capacity of security: energy, food, industrial chain, emergency system

Overall, strategic planning does not simply emphasize the requirements of economic growth and economic stability, but also pays more attention to the combination of high-quality development and transformation, with long-term strategic orientation. The analysis of the specific points in the Plan is as follows.

two。 The grasp of consumption expansion: service, sharing and low carbon

What is the core of future consumption? The outline describes the four types of consumption as follows: traditional consumption (continuous improvement), service consumption (positive development), new consumption (accelerated cultivation), and low-carbon consumption (strongly advocated). It is obvious that the core of future consumption expansion lies in service, new and low-carbon consumption.

First of all, the traditional consumption field itself is large, so it focuses on "seeking progress in the midst of stability".Including: "insisting that the house is for living, not for speculation," and that real estate sales emphasize stability; "promoting the electrification, networking and intelligence of cars, and strengthening the construction of supporting facilities such as parking lots, charging piles, replacement power stations, hydrogen filling stations". The consumption of vehicles is aimed at upgrading and improving efficiency. "promote a healthy diet, increase the supply of healthy and nutritious agricultural products and food, and promote the healthy development of the catering industry." Food consumption pays more attention to safety.

Secondly, the marginal increment of future consumption lies in service, sharing and low carbon, which highlights "positive and promising".Including: "promoting ice and snow sports to expand from the south to the west and east to the east, driving the masses to" like ice and snow ", sports themes and cultural sharing are important forms of future consumption;" support the standardized and orderly development of online social networking and short video platforms. Encourage micro-applications, micro-products, micro-movies and other innovation ", short video has become a new consumption craze. "promoting the green renewal and quality upgrading of consumer durables", the activities of green household appliances and new energy vehicles in the low-carbon field are also an important trend of consumption expansion.

Looking back, the role of consumption as the cornerstone of stabilizing the economy is still unshakable. With the liberalization of epidemic prevention, future service consumption and social consumption, as the main carriers of new consumption, will bear more tasks of stabilizing growth and promoting employment. Among them, consumer categories such as green home appliances, new energy vehicles, tourism hotels, movies and entertainment have great potential for growth.

3. The direction of investment: make up the deficiency and revitalize the infrastructure.

Where is the starting point of investment? The outline puts forward that the direction of investment is mainly to optimize the structure, in which the expressions of the three core development directions are: manufacturing investment (increasing efforts), key areas to make up for deficiencies (continuous promotion), and new infrastructure (system layout). The direction is also clear, manufacturing powers are still the long-term main line, and future increments are mainly in the further expansion of new infrastructure.

First of all, policy support for science and technology manufacturing will continue unabated, and manufacturing powers are expected to become the long-term main line.Including: "guide all kinds of high-quality resource elements to agglomerate to the manufacturing industry", "increase the investment in the optimization and upgrading of the traditional manufacturing industry, and expand the investment in the advanced manufacturing field", the internal structural adjustment trend of the manufacturing industry remains unchanged. The upgrading and transformation of traditional manufacturing and the expansion of advanced manufacturing are the growth points in the future. "improve the policy system to promote the development of the manufacturing industry, reduce the production and operating costs of enterprises, and enhance the profitability of the manufacturing industry." it reflects that policy preferences will be further tilted to the manufacturing industry, and the tilt of structural loan instruments implemented in 2022 to high-end manufacturing will continue unabated in the future.

Secondly, infrastructure investment mainly emphasizes the "filling board" in traditional areas and the system construction in emerging fields.Among them, the deficiency board of infrastructure construction is mainly concentrated in the fields of transportation, water conservancy and energy, including: "promoting the construction of the main framework of'6 axes, 7 corridors and 8 corridors'. Strengthen inter-regional, inter-urban agglomeration and inter-provincial transportation links", "actively promote the transformation of distribution networks and the construction of rural power grids, enhance the capacity of transmission and distribution to remote areas", and "speed up the completion of flood control in rivers and lakes. We will promote the construction of dike reinforcement, river regulation, control projects, flood storage and detention areas, etc. " Tackling key problems of the new infrastructure focuses on the field of information, including: "speeding up the construction of the Internet of things, industrial Internet, satellite Internet and gigabit optical network, and building a nationwide integrated big data center system."

In 2022, we have seen the government begin to shift a lot of resources to the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, including huge amounts of government debt, structured financial instruments, and so on. Looking back, investment is still the key engine of future economic growth. China's future development direction will focus on manufacturing powers and new infrastructure countries, and the core power points will be: power equipment, digital industry, new power grid and so on.

4. The yardstick of income distribution: common prosperity and GDP

Rational income distribution is the premise of expanding domestic demand. What are the principles of income distribution in the future?There are two important statements in the outline, the structural point of view once again emphasizes the importance of common prosperity, and the formulation of the total level is the main marginal increment, which aligns residents' income with GDP. It shows that the future income distribution will make joint efforts at the total and structural levels to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor and achieve common prosperity at the same time.

First of all, the initial distribution pays more attention to making the cake bigger, and improving the quality of employment and increasing the total income of residents is the core task.Including: "speed up the deep integration of the new generation of information technology and manufacturing, and create more high-quality and higher-income jobs." the new economy will provide more high-quality jobs in the future. "adhere to the basic synchronization of residents' income growth and economic growth, the increase of labor remuneration and the increase of labor productivity", the proportion of residents' labor remuneration will increase steadily to match economic growth, and the dividends of economic development need to be distributed to the common people.

Secondly, redistribution and three distributions are important links to divide the cake. Finance, taxation, social security, charity and other regulatory mechanisms work together to promote social equity.Including: "strengthening the tax regulation and supervision of high-income earners", "promoting the full coverage of basic old-age insurance from the system to the legal population", the redistribution link will be further optimized, and at the same time fully tap the potential of the third distribution, including "guide and support willing and capable enterprises and social groups to actively participate in public welfare charities".

In the post-epidemic era, the income of residents in China shows a K-type differentiation, and the low-income groups and small and medium-sized enterprises have been seriously impacted because of their poor anti-risk ability, which leads to the downward movement of the center of income growth. The gap between the rich and the poor restricts the consumer side very obviously. Looking back, after the opening of epidemic prevention, the employment of low-and middle-income groups is expected to pick up faster, superimposed on the further optimization of the income distribution mechanism, and the expansion of domestic demand will be more robust in the future.

5. The core of high-quality development: innovation-driven, science and technology leading

High-quality supply helps to break through the blockage point of supply and demand cycle and create new demand.The outline focuses on improving the quality of supply from two aspects: one is to actively promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries; the other is to speed up the development of new industries and new products and create new demand.

First of all, the direction of the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries is: agricultural modernization, intelligent manufacturing, high-end service industry.These include: "strengthening agricultural science and technology and equipment support, promoting agricultural mechanization and intelligent agricultural machinery equipment, promoting the development of intelligent agriculture", "promoting the convergence of data, talents, technology and other production factors in traditional industries, promoting enterprises to speed up digital transformation," and so on.

Second, we should increase support for emerging industries, create new demand and provide new jobs, and promote a virtuous circle between supply and demand at a higher level.Including "implementing a number of forward-looking and strategic national major scientific and technological projects in the frontier fields of artificial intelligence, quantum information, and brain science", "promoting the application and industrialization of major equipment engineering, accelerating the research and development of large aircraft, aero-engines and airborne equipment", and "promoting the research and application of cutting-edge new materials".

Looking back, the expansion and efficiency improvement of the supply side is still an important trend, and is expected to become a new growth force on the demand side in the future, including: new materials, high-end equipment, intelligent manufacturing and other areas.

6. Security is the bottom line of development: food, energy, supply chain

What is the significance of security development? In the context of global geo-risk intensification, supply-side disturbances occur frequently, which poses a great challenge to the expansion of domestic demand. Therefore, as the bottom line of development in the future, the importance of security will be further enhanced, including "ensuring food security", "strengthening the security of energy and resources", and "enhancing the security capability of the industrial chain supply chain." "

First of all, in the field of grain and energy, because our country is rich in resource reserves, the core lies in resource protection and resource development. Including: "adhere to the strictest cultivated land protection system, strictly abide by the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land, resolutely curb the 'non-agriculturalization' of cultivated land, strictly control 'non-grain conversion'," guide and encourage social capital to enter the field of oil and gas exploration and exploitation "," actively carry out ore prospecting in the depth and periphery of existing mines, and extend mine service life ". Under the background of the increasing fragility of global crude oil supply, China actively taps its internal potential.

Secondly, focus on promoting the manufacturing complementary chain strong chain, inward complementary chain, outward stable chain, external cooperation is still the main theme. Including: "consolidate and expand industrial chain supply chain cooperation with neighboring countries, jointly maintain the stable operation of the international industrial chain supply chain", "strengthen the stable supply of key instruments and equipment, key basic software, large-scale industrial software, industry application software and industrial control systems, and important parts and components".

Looking back, the scarcity of resources and the trend of anti-globalization are still difficult to reverse, and the importance of security needs to be further recognized.