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教育股延续涨势,思考乐教育5日涨超150%,会是下一个新东方吗?

Education stocks continue to rise. Think Le Education rose more than 150% on the 5th. Will it be the next New Oriental?

Gelonghui Finance ·  Dec 16, 2022 14:05

Source: Gelong Hui

Since the beginning of this year, the education sector has been active many times. Against the background of policy overlap, Hong Kong A shares have once again ushered in a big rebound today, and small and medium-sized education stocks have also skyrocketed one after another.

Among Hong Kong education stocks, thinking music rose by more than 12%, Guangzheng Education Certificate by more than 11%, Li Tak Education and Hong Kong Education International by more than 8%, Dashan Education, New higher Education, New Oriental Education & Technology Group and so on.

In A-share education stocks, Xueda Education and Onli Education rose by the daily limit, Doushen Education rose by more than 6%, and Quantong Education, Kevin Education, and Guoxin Culture rose.

The sharp rise in education stocks is on the one hand due to the significant progress made in the audit of Chinese stocks, and on the other hand, many online education transformation live streaming products have achieved good results.

In addition, after the "double reduction", a number of teaching and training enterprises in the case of the original business contraction, constantly busy with the transformation of new business.As far as the live broadcast business is concerned, New Oriental Education & Technology Group launched Oriental selection, and the share price of New Oriental Education & Technology Group online also soared after the high-profile successful transformation of Douyin, which model also attracted the attention of the market. From the month K trend has to give praise for the "New Oriental Education & Technology Group spirit", no matter what kind of desperate situation, there is always indomitable courage.

For most Chinese people, Yu Minhong is a well-known entrepreneur created by the times. He and his New Oriental Education & Technology Group, together with the craze of studying abroad, are also impressive.

With the successful experience of New Oriental Education & Technology Group live streaming with goods, thinking about music education also began to transform live streaming with goods, TAL Education Group launched excellent products, Gaotu Techedu Inc. launched Gaotu Techedu Inc. good things, and so on, have entered the field of live e-commerce.

And think music education also launched Douyin local life service live broadcast, the news exciting, the share price soared 100% on the 13th, the next day the stock price continued to soar more than 30%, so that the share price has tripled in three days, nearly 154% in the past five trading days, and more than 19% today.

At the same time, at the macro level, the 20th CPC National Congress emphasizes the priority of employment and the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education.

Huaxi Securities analysis said that from the perspective of the higher education sector, the market was mainly worried about policy uncertainty, such as the slow progress of the election, and the killing of valuations further affected the industry's M & An expectations. (1) since September, the Ministry of Education has successively approved changes in the sponsors of four independent colleges and universities in Hunan, Guizhou, Hebei and Shandong. Vocational education is not only the landing means of the integration of industry and education, but also the meaning of the topic of common prosperity. (2) against the background of great employment pressure this year, the number of higher education places has once again ushered in a relatively rapid growth, especially for junior college places: the number of new applicants increased by 48% in September (general / junior college / junior college increased by 37% / 60% / 23% respectively. Excluding the endogenous growth of 26% after mergers and acquisitions), it is hoped that the Education / Zhonghui Group will grow by 15% and 16.6% respectively. (3) the higher education company will announce its performance at the end of November, which is also expected to act as a catalyst. Recommend Chinese Education Holdings and New higher Education Group.

From the perspective of K12, (1) discipline training recommends university education: the company is the only company that successfully completed the fixed increase before the double reduction, and there is plenty of cash on hand, the part of one-to-one training in senior high school is not affected by the policy, and the part of junior high school has been spun off. the company has recently transformed and expanded to the field of vocational education. (2) quality education is not affected by the policy, so recommend Shengtong shares: Lebo is expected to recover after the epidemic, and the advance payment of the superimposed industry will be changed from annual to quarterly, which will improve the concentration of the industry.

From the perspective of vocational training, it is recommended to transfer wisdom education (the company has been significantly less affected by the epidemic this year after carrying out curriculum reform, marketing reform and other measures, and the performance of Q3 has exceeded expectations), action education (the company has been eliminated by the epidemic in the first half of the year. The second half of the year ushered in the repair), pay attention to the progress of the agreement class refund of public education, if successfully completed, it is expected to usher in the valuation repair.

Cinda Securities said that from the policy point of view, optimize the private higher education, vocational education training, education information section. In the private higher education section, the for-profit choice is still being promoted, the conversion of independent colleges has not yet been completed, and concerns about policy risks are gradually dispelled; the increase in the number of places drives the increase in the number of private higher education, and the average tuition increases slightly. The simultaneous rise in volume and price brings endogenous and stable growth, the valuation is low, the valuation of the primary and secondary market is upside down, and the process of mergers and acquisitions slows down; professional undergraduates may bring new growth points. In the vocational education training section, the short-term epidemic disturbance does not change the long-term logic. under the background of the national policy to encourage vocational education training, the demand for vocational education training is still strong, and the short-term suppression of training demand will be accelerated after the epidemic; reducing costs and increasing efficiency is gradually reflected, bringing about the recovery of the profit side. In the education information sector, the policy of discount and re-loan has been introduced to stimulate investment in education information. K12 education section, "double reduction" policy to restrict K9 discipline training, issued "interim measures" to combat violations of "black education training" and "underground education training", K12 education companies are facing transformation.

Edit / Corrine

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