Recently, favorable policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption have been introduced one after another.

On December 14, the outline of the Strategic Plan for expanding domestic demand (2022-2035) issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council proposed to comprehensively promote consumption, speed up the upgrading and upgrading of consumption, optimize the investment structure, and expand investment space.

On the morning of the 15th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the implementation Plan of the 14th five-year Plan to expand domestic demand. The eight key tasks put forward in the implementation Plan, the outline of the Strategic Plan for expanding domestic demand (2022-2035), and the relevant policies and measures have been further refined and implemented in view of the work that can be implemented or made significant progress during the 14th five-year Plan period.

Recently, the domestic epidemic prevention and control measures have been significantly relaxed, and the policy tone has begun to shift to economic repair. In addition to the above program documents, many places are also stepping up the introduction of policies to stabilize the economy and promote consumption, such as the issuance of consumption vouchers and commodity subsidies.

How to understand the above measures? What investment opportunities will it bring?

Huatai: the social service sector is expected to rise.

The outline points out that China has achieved remarkable results in expanding domestic demand, in which the basic role of consumption on the economy has been continuously strengthened, with emphasis on tax exemption, national brands, cultural tourism, cultural creation, island vacations, cruise ships, and so on.

Huatai believes that the optimization of prevention and control policies and the introduction of a strategy to expand domestic demand may inject a policy shot in the arm into the recovery of consumption.

Recently, various places have issued consumption coupons one after another, and we think that the possibility of further policies to promote consumption can not be ruled out in the follow-up. Consumers' pursuit of a better life remains the same, and the demand for service consumption is expected to continue to repair upward.

Under the main theme of expanding domestic demand, a package of measures to promote consumption, such as the issuance of consumer coupons and direct consumer subsidies, are expected to be introduced one after another, or continue to stimulate the release of public consumer demand, boost the recovery mood of the consumer sector, and accelerate the pace of performance repair of leading companies.

Based on the medium term, the supply side of the offline service plate continues to integrate and optimize, looking forward to the recovery elasticity of the social service plate under the two-way improvement of supply and demand. Considering the prosperity, leading position and flexibility of the track, Huatai continues to recommend:

1) with the resumption of duty-free passenger flow on outlying islands, the policy of departure shops in the Chinese city is expected:$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$；

2) increase in market share, structural upgrading of brands, and management of hotel leaders that improve quality and efficiency:$Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels (600754.SH)$、$HWORLD-S (01179.HK)$、$BTG Hotels (600258.SH)$。

3) chain catering companies that undertake social banquets, rigid demand for cost-effective meals, and high brand potential:$HELENS (09869.HK)$、$Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited (09922.HK)$、$Tongqinglou Catering Corporation (605108.SH)$、$Yum China-S (09987.HK)$。

Guotai Junan: industries such as catering, automobile, home appliances and tax exemption are expected to benefit.

Combined with the contents of the outline, Guotai Junan believes that the industries that are expected to benefit in the future include:

① Food and Beverage & Catering Industry:The outline clearly proposes to improve the basic consumption quality of residents, such as food and clothing, advocate a healthy diet, increase the supply of healthy and nutritious agricultural products and food, and promote the healthy development of the catering industry.

② Automotive Industry:The outline once again affirms the pulling effect of cars on consumption growth, and proposes to continue to promote electrification, networking and intelligence, and strengthen the construction of supporting facilities such as parking lots, charging piles, replacement power stations and hydrogen filling stations, so as to facilitate the trade of second-hand cars and release the potential of travel consumption.

③ Home Appliances & Home Industry:We will steadily implement a long-term mechanism for the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, support residents' reasonable demand for self-occupation, expand the supply of indemnificatory rental housing, promote household decoration consumption, and increase the consumption of smart household appliances.

④ duty-free industry:The outline clearly proposes to promote the healthy and orderly development of the duty-free industry, better meet the consumption demand of middle and high-end consumer goods, and further promote the construction of Hainan International Tourism consumption Center.

⑤ Tourism Industry:We will expand cultural and tourism consumption, vigorously develop holiday and leisure tourism, expand diversified, personalized and customized tourism products and services, speed up the cultivation of tourism formats such as islands, cruise ships, low altitude and deserts, and unleash the growth potential of the tourism market.

Western Securities: three clues to grasp the trend opportunities of the Consumer sector

Western Securities said that from the upgrading of traditional consumption to the cultivation of new consumption, three clues to grasp the trend opportunities of the consumer sector.

1) under the background of traditional consumption upgrading, consumer durables represented by automobiles and household appliances are still the basis of sustained consumption growth.

2) in the post-epidemic era, with the superimposed process of population aging, medical and health services will become the most deterministic incremental direction.

3) pay attention to the new trend of consumption, as Generation Z begins to grow into the main force of consumption, the new consumption trend represented by consumer electronics, games, virtual reality and so on is also worthy of investors' attention.

Zheshang Securities: traditional consumption promotes the supply of middle and high-end consumer goods, while the new consumption focuses on cultivating a new model, new business type.

Zheshang Securities believes that comprehensively promoting consumption is an inevitable requirement for expanding domestic demand, and there are two key points:

First of all, traditional consumption increases the supply of middle and high-end consumer goods. The outline proposes for the first time to "better meet the consumption needs of middle and high-end consumer goods", on the one hand, to promoteDuty-free industryHealthy and orderly development, on the other hand, promote the growth of national brands, promote"the rise of domestic products"。

Secondly, the new type of consumption focuses on cultivating a new model, new business type. First, speed up the integration of online and offline consumption, speed up the digital transformation of offline formats, and cultivate a new model of "Internet + social service", such asEducation, medical care, recreationWait. The second is to develop a new individual economy and support the standardized development of webcast, diversified social networking and short video platforms.