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财通证券:培育钻毛坯价格低点已过 上游龙头业绩确定性强

财通证券:培育钻毛坯价格低点已过 上游龙头业绩确定性强
CaiTong Securities: Cultivating low rough prices has passed the upstream leaders' performance is highly certain

Zhitong Finance ·  12/14/2022 09:27

智通财经APP获悉,财通证券发布培育钻行业研究报告称,Q3业绩落地,主要公司前三季度业绩保持高增,培育钻/工业金刚石/复合超硬材料景气度高企。淡季毛坯价格低点已过,目前正处美国珠宝消费旺季,下游需求保持韧性。终端贸易商、零售商备货补库,11月印度培育钻裸钻出口额同比+23%。受益于需求端季节性向好,9月底以来国内毛坯价格逐步企稳回升,上游龙头基于产能技术优势,业绩确定性强。

建议关注:HTHP产能龙头中兵红箭(000519.SZ)、力量钻石(301071.SZ),以及CVD即将放量贡献增量业绩的四方达(300179.SZ)、国机精工(002046.SZ)、沃尔德(688028.SH)。

印度钻石珠宝进出口数据跟踪:培育钻裸钻出口同比+23%

2022年11月,印度培育钻石毛坯进口额为0.77亿美元,同比下降13.96%,培育钻石裸钻出口额为1.05亿美元,同比增长22.88%;

2022年11月,印度天然钻石毛坯进口额为13.30亿美元,同比增长24.22%,天然钻石裸钻出口额为12.48亿美元,同比下降4.17%。

培育钻出口端渗透率走高:

2022年11月,印度培育钻石进口端渗透率为5.49%,同比-2.09pct;出口端渗透率为7.79%,同比+1.61pct。

美国正处珠宝销售旺季,下游需求旺盛,培育钻裸钻出口保持增长。经过9-10月库存去化后,培育钻毛坯进口环比恢复。美国下游消费韧性强,天然钻石销售压力下出口端持续下滑,培育钻平替空间广阔,渗透率有望持续提升。

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